magill_grass_2013-04-27

Matt Magill should be Dodgers’ No. 5 starter in April

magill_grass_2013-04-27
I know I’m going to catch a lot of flak for this, but Matt Magill should be the Dodgers’ No. 5 starter to begin the season.I’ll wait for you to stop laughing… still waiting. OK. Hear me out.

The Dodgers have yet to sign another starting pitcher this winter. General Manager Ned Colletti has said a few times he’s looking at starters since Masahiro Tanaka signed with the Yankees.

The name that comes up most is Bronson Arroyo, but that’s merely a Morosi rumor at the moment. A.J. Burnett would be great, but don’t bet the farm on that happening. Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana aren’t happening because of draft pick compensation.

Internally, the Dodgers have Josh Beckett, Stephen Fife and Zach Lee all ready to begin the 2014 season in the rotation, but all three have question marks.

Beckett had surgery this offseason and there’s no telling how effective he’ll be this season. Fife had a nice stretch last season, but his lack of pure talent and stuff caught up to him. Lee has never thrown a pitch at a level higher than Double-A, which may or may not be a negative. But he’s just 22 years old.

So, why Magill? I mean, he walked 28 batters in 27 2/3 innings, and struck out 26. That’s extremely unimpressive. Let’s break it down.

The Dodgers don’t especially need a No. 5 starter much in April. In fact, if the stars align, they won’t need a fifth starter until April 19, and would need two starts from the No. 5 just two times in the month. Beckett is used to pitching every fifth day. This means he’d make some appearances out of the bullpen, something he’s done just three times in his career. The solution for Beckett is a disabled list stint, giving him an extra month to get as close to 100 percent as possible. Fife seems better suited for starting, and  his pitching coach said as much last season. Lee is largely untested, and Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus said, “I think Lee would thrive in a rotation. I don’t think Lee is a guy you take out of the rotation.” I’ve never fancied Lee as a reliever.

So, not only would the “No. 5″ starter not start a lot, he’d, in theory, make a majority of his appearances (not innings, most likely) out of the bullpen. Of the quartet, Magill’s stuff plays best out of the bullpen. Beckett takes a day-and-a-half to throw a pitch, Fife doesn’t have the power profile and Lee’s mentality is best-suited for starting. Magill’s future could be as a reliever.

Also, if the Dodgers keep Lee in the minors until June, they can milk an extra year of arbitration out of him, as he wouldn’t qualify for “Super 2″ status.

Some are probably wondering (and by some, I mean four or five), “What about Seth Rosin?” Good question. Rosin was a Rule 5 Draft pick of the Mets, which traded him to the Dodgers. Rosin must be on the active roster come opening day (be it on the 25-man or on the disabled list). If not, he’d have to go through waivers, then be offered back to the Phillies before he could go to the Albuquerque.

Rosin has obviously caught the front office’s eye, and he could be a guy to watch this spring. But he seems more like a 1- or 2-inning reliever to me, rather than a true long reliever. That’s also what Jamey Wright is these days. Sure, you could both of those guys team up and hope for five innings total out of them a couple times in April, but that also burns them for at least the next game, maybe two (depending on off-days). With Magill, who has started 102 games in the minors, he would be able to go five- or six innings in a spot start (provided they were quality innings).

None of these four guys has the ability to go from reliever, to spot starter, back to reliever, back to spot starer better than Magill does. His stuff plays much better in that role, as he could sit in the low-90s in a start or even tick up a couple MPH in a 1-inning relief role.

Of course, this is all predicated on Magill having a strong spring training — something he did in 2013 (4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K). As long as he’s able to repeat his delivery and keep his mechanics in tact, he could be a valuable guy for the Dodgers in April. That’s a big “if,” though.

If only Chad Billingsley had Tommy John surgery when he was supposed to, this wouldn’t even be an issue. Then again, the Dodgers might not have signed Dan Haren, either. Or maybe they would have. Who knows.

It’s not the most popular opinion and I’d be shocked if the Dodgers actually did it, but it’s something to ponder as Spring Training approaches.


About

Dustin Nosler began writing about the Dodgers in July 2009 at his blog, Feelin’ Kinda Blue. He co-hosts a weekly podcast with Jared Massey called “Dugout Blues.” He is a FanGraphs' contracts intern and a contributor/editor at The Hardball Times. He graduated from California State University, Sacramento, with his bachelor’s degree in journalism and a minor in digital media. While at CSUS, he worked for the student-run newspaper The State Hornet for three years, culminating with a 1-year term as editor-in-chief. He resides in Stockton, Calif., and has yet to be shot.


729 comments
BlueMarvin (Not Freaking Out)
BlueMarvin (Not Freaking Out)

So if anyone is wondering if the Dodgers plan to add any new big additions to the team anytime soon, this news here indicates they will not:


http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-dodgers-raise-season-ticket-prices-140-percent-20140201,0,5118954.story#axzz2sSdRxfMM


The idea was to get the fans back, and if the team feels bold enough to raise prices by THAT much, I'm guessing they feel pretty confident that they've got the fans right where they want them.  At least we still have MLB.tv... for now.

 Dillon
Dillon

Ok, I'm sufficiently tired enough to go to bed.

Stopped by to see if anything interesting was happening here first because it's been a bit since I've dropped by.

G'night VND and Math Cat. Good luck with that learning/teaching Vietnamese thing.

Maybe I'll stop over tomorrow when it's more active.

http://i.imgur.com/JjExjDZ.gif

KMT59
KMT59

night again....go back to having fun again, so I have something to read and laugh at  in the morning

KMT59
KMT59

missed @TheConmangifs, all the good drug discussion, Goat being run over by a car...you guys must wait for me to lggoff to have all the fun

deblue
deblue

night. I have some reading to do

Lobo
Lobo

Night y'all

deblue
deblue

So did Puig get a little bit of a belly, or his stomach a little larger from more muscles?

deblue
deblue

Livefyre was klling my browser

capnsparrow
capnsparrow

welp that was disgusting. I apologize for bein hard on efb. But I just cant idly stand by and let kids walk down a road that goes someplace bad without opening my big mouth

TellMyWifeISaidHello
TellMyWifeISaidHello

@BlueMarvin  I feel like you are taking a large logical leap. Especially when we were just willing to lay out 140 million for Tanaka

o0b00tz0o
o0b00tz0o

@deBlue thats probably just the way hes built. I bet hes got six pack abs. 

DodgersFan
DodgersFan

 Keeping this in one thread for vnd, i made a list of my 25 favorite songs from the 60s in order.

BlueMarvin (Not Freaking Out)
BlueMarvin (Not Freaking Out)

@capnsparrow @BlueMarvin I mean that the only reason we were breaking the bank adding players was because the fans were leaving in droves because of McCourt.  They stopped the bleeding and reversed it, so financially there is little incentive now to add new high-priced players.

BlueMarvin (Not Freaking Out)
BlueMarvin (Not Freaking Out)

@TellMyWifeISaidHello @BlueMarvin Very few clubs ever say "we're not open to adding big players" because there's just no incentive to publicly take that stance.  Part of getting people to turn out or tune in is building up hope that their team has a chance either right now or soon to be winners.  If a team says "we're not gonna add anyone" either because they're tapped out or just because they see no financial reason to do so, that can be discouraging to the fan base unless the team is winning.  None of us will care if the Dodgers are anyone else if we play like we did for much of last year, but if we struggle, that will change.

TellMyWifeISaidHello
TellMyWifeISaidHello

@BlueMarvin @TellMyWifeISaidHello  No they didn't and besides I see no reason not to take them at their word that they are always open to new moves. This club spent a lot of money to win now I don't think they will spend 400 million on payroll, but they certainly will take on a cliff lee in July if they can.

Lobo
Lobo

Yeah, that's usually true

DodgersFan
DodgersFan

@deBlue @ JohnM @Lobo yea probably their best guitar album. the backwards guitar on i'm only sleeping and tomorrow never knows is pretty neat

DodgersFan
DodgersFan

@Lobo @ JohnM in my experience it's generally the version i hear first that i like the best.

deblue
deblue

@ JohnM @deBlue @Lobo  JohnM, that one is good. Love the lead guitar work...

I also like Im only sleeping quite a bit. Such a great rock album, Revolver

Lobo
Lobo

@ JohnM @Lobo I do too.  But for me, Peter, Paul, and Mary's harmonies put it over the top.  It doesn't hurt that Blowin in the Wind is one of the first songs I can remember hearing.  When I was in Kindergarten, my music teacher taught us about Peter, Paul, and Mary and Blowin in the Wind was one of the songs he played for us.  I think I still have a cassette copy of the song that he gave me somewhere at home

Lobo
Lobo

@ JohnM @Lobo Specifically Peter Paul and Mary's cover, though I also love the Bob Dylan original

Lobo
Lobo

@ JohnM @Lobo I already know my number 1 is Blowin in the Wind because it's my all time favorite song

DodgersFan
DodgersFan

@Lobo @ JohnM take your time, i put several weeks of deliberation into mine. pretty much the only thing i was certain of when i started making it is that god only knows would be number 1

Lobo
Lobo

@ JohnM @Lobo I'll try to come up with a list of my own tomorrow and then share it with you

Lobo
Lobo

@ JohnM @Lobo  I just don't find anything in it to be that good.  I'm listening to it right now for probably the first time in 4 or 5 years.  I'm not hating it as much as I used to.  I just find it to be kind of a mess, it seems to lack focus to me

Lobo
Lobo

@ JohnM @Lobo I agree with most of these.  I think the only one that I know and disagree with would be Strawberry Fields Forever.  Very much not a fan of that song.

DodgersFan
DodgersFan

 I know Bridge over troubled water came out in 1970 but The Boxer was released as a single in 69