Dodgers @ Padres August 29, 2014: Finding Hope for Dan Haren

Dodgers
Padres
7:10 p.m. PT
San Diego, Ca.
2B
Gordon
3B
Solarte
SS
Ramirez
CF
Almonte
1B
Gonzalez
LF
Smith
RF
Kemp
1B
Grandal
LF
Crawford
2B
Gyorko
CF
Ethier
C
Rivera
3B
Turner
RF
Liriano
C
Ellis
SS
Amarista
P
Haren (R)
P
Cashner (R)

Dan Haren‘s home runs have been a big problem this year, as we all know. He gave up one in his last start against the Mets, bringing his season total to 25. Only twelve hitters have hit more home runs than Dan Haren has allowed in 2014.

Yet, in trying to find some irrational hope for tonight’s start in Petco Park, there’s this: Petco hates home runs. Seamheads has three year park factors for each stadium (Fangraphs is per team and five years). In 2013, Petco’s three year home run park factor was 82, or a suppression of about 18%. At least that’s something to grasp onto.

If Haren pitches every fifth game from here to the rest of the season, he has six starts remaining (including tonight). Haren is currently sitting at 150 innings pitched, 30 innings shy of his team option becoming a player option. If he lasts five innings per start, he’ll reach the threshold. So far this season, Haren is averaging 5-2/3 innings per start. It’s going to be really close.

When asked about the option after his good outing last week, Haren said “Who knows if I would want to play next year?” hinting that he is not 100% guaranteed to exercise the option even if it vests. Still, it’s rare to see a player turn down that kind of money. The situation has me a bit torn; Haren for 11MM next season is not exactly palatable, but if he lasts 30 more innings it means that he might be vaguely helpful in reaching the playoffs. We’ll see.

To close out the Haren part of this game thread, a “fun” fact. Haren has allowed 15 unearned runs to score this season. Clayton Kershaw has allowed 15 unearned runs since 7/16/2011.

Before the game, we got a bunch of injury updates. Strangely, they’re all positive. Hyun-jin Ryu, on the disabled list with a strained gluteous muscle, is currently scheduled to start on Sunday. This would push Roberto Hernandez to Monday and schedule Clayton Kershaw to start on Tuesday. It’s amazing how big of an upgrade it is to go from Kevin Correia to Ryu.

Juan Uribe is also progressing well. He ran the bases before the game on Wednesday, and is expected to be activated on Monday. Amazingly, Scott Van Slyke‘s ankle sprain isn’t very bad, either. Eric Stephen notes that it is possible that Van Slyke will be ready to start against lefty Eric Stults on Sunday.

Even after all of these overwhelmingly positive injury notes, we still need to think back on the training staff’s track record. Hopefully everybody is actually ready.

Yasiel Puig, 0 for his last 18, gets another day off today. His power missing is a concern, obviously, but during that 0-fer he has six walks. It’s a sign that he is still seeing the ball well, at least. Don Mattingly is calling it a “frustration day,” for what it’s worth.

Andre Ethier starts in Puig’s place tonight. Hitler is not pleased (courtesy of commenter Blue Marvin, keep watching for some humor based on the posts here):


About

Daniel Brim grew up in the Los Angeles area and remains a Dodger fan despite currently residing in Salem, MA. As an engineer, he’s fascinated by the math and science behind the game of baseball, which probably explains a lot. He started “Blog To The Score” in late 2013 to dig deeper into the numbers behind the Dodgers. In its brief lifespan, it gained attention from local and national media. You can find him spending too much time in the comments section or on Twitter.


1232 comments
very smart towel
very smart towel

Haren actually being decent makes this loss even harder.

Barney wrong AF
Barney wrong AF

It would be if Milwaukee could win the next two in SF. Giants are being annoying and not sucking as much lately.

Peaky Blinder
Peaky Blinder

@Barney (Not Darwin) 

they won 3 of 4 from a tire fire colorado team (who we'll play 6 more times too) and won tonight.  still have the tougher schedule left

Peaky Blinder
Peaky Blinder

can't wait till rosters expand, sick of seeing some of these guys

very smart towel
very smart towel

@ tomato will be nice to have Yimi Garcia in the BP and Pederson to PH and Arruebarrena back for defense

Casey Goldman
Casey Goldman

Remember everyone the Dodgers used seven relief pitchers, but not their best one.

OCDodger
OCDodger

@P_F_P 

fuck them all, they're all shit 

until tomorrow 

very smart towel
very smart towel

@P_F_P Dee had an awful game, but Correia is awful generally and showed it well.


Donnie kind of mismanaged the bullpen of course, Baez and Frias are both good for multiple innings and he burned through them 1IP each

ElJefedor
ElJefedor

@P_F_P Really? Dee is the reason they lost? GTFO. He had a bad a game, had chances to help them win, but it's not all his fault. Go to bed.

CptPineapple
CptPineapple

You know if you'd told me before the game that Haren and Correia would pitch on the same night and we would only lose by one run, I'm not sure how much more I could have reasonably hoped for.

insideThePark
insideThePark

not even mad.

2 runs in 12 innings.


3 game lead (I don't care about "half" games)


Nobody said this would be easy.

Peaky Blinder
Peaky Blinder

the chick interviewing on SD TV blows Rizzo away


piece of ass

LA_Woman
LA_Woman

BUMS! (at least it wasn't a shrimp?) (or scallop)

OCDodger
OCDodger

blame everyone, they're all assholes

Casey Goldman
Casey Goldman

An unwatchable game and unwatchable mlb.tv.


What a fucking night.