Despite rumors that the Dodgers might not actually extend Hanley Ramirez a qualifying offer, the fact that they would seemed so certain that I’m more than happy to admit that I wrote this post three days ago, for easy publishing when the news came out. Now it has, and it’s as expected: Ramirez is the first Dodger to ever receive a qualifying offer, which first came into existence in the 2012-13 offseason. To date, 22 players have been given qualifying offers, and exactly zero have accepted. Of course, with how poorly that went for Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew last year, it’s easy to think that maybe that changes this time around.
With the qualifying offer in hand, Ramirez has until 5 p.m. Eastern next Monday, Nov. 10, to decide to accept or not. Spoiler alert: He won’t. For all his obvious flaws — defense, durability — he’s all but unquestionably the most dominant offensive force on the market. Here’s all you really need to know, from FanGraphs’ contract crowdsourcing project — and remember, last year, the crowdsourcing guesses were 11% less than the overall dollars actually handed out.
Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $18 million
Total: 5 years, $90 million
Average Years: 5.0
Average AAV: $17.5 million
Total: 5.0 years, $86.9 million
Will the Dodgers extend Ramirez a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 97%. No: 3%.
Will Ramirez accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 98%. Yes: 2%.
Right. Ramirez is going to get lots of year and lots of dollars, and most likely it won’t be from the Dodgers. So, no, he’s not going to take one year and $15.3m. Instead, he’ll depart (probably), and the Dodgers will get a first-round pick in return.