Nationals @ Dodgers Oct. 10, 2016: NLDS Game 3

	Nationals			Dodgers
	1:08 PM PST			Los Angeles
CF	Turner		LF	Kendrick
LF	Werth		3B	Turner
2B	Murphy		SS	Seager
RF	Harper		RF	Puig
3B	Rendon		1B	Gonzalez
1B	Zimmerman		C	Grandal
SS	Espinosa		2B	Culberson
C	Lobaton		CF	Pederson
P	Gonzalez (L)		P	Maeda (R)

Last night, I argued that Gio Gonzalez is a little different than most left-handed pitchers which have given the Dodger offense a deserving bad reputation. Gonzalez does not throw a slider, one of the best weapons for getting out same-sided hitters. However, I skipped the bad news. The Dodgers have faced Gio Gonzalez before this season, and the results were not very good. On July 20th at Dodger Stadium, Gonzalez pitched six innings, allowed one run on three hits, struck out six batters, and walked two. By game score, it was his sixth-best start of the year.

However, that start shouldn’t be viewed as a wholly bad sign. Corey Seager had that day off. Charlie Culberson started in his place, and both are in the lineup today. Chris Taylor started in the July game against Gonzalez, as did Scott Van Slyke. Zach Walters got a plate appearance too. There has been a lot of turnover in the Dodger platoon lineup since then, but not to much avail. However, Gio Gonzalez’ arm slot (high) and repertoire (platoon-friendly) are more important than the results of just one start. Additionally, the Dodgers occasionally beating up Matt Moore is a good sign that you shouldn’t read too much into one game anyways.

Today’s lineup is interesting. The main item to note is that Charlie Culberson is getting the start over Chase Utley, which makes sense due to platoon issues. Austin Barnes may be a better choice, but they made the choice to bury him on the roster weeks ago and starting him out of nowhere wouldn’t have been a good idea. Justin Turner is batting second, which is odd considering that he has struggled significantly against left-handed pitching this year. This seems like a vote of confidence that his splits are a fluke, though it’s worth noting that they date back to Turner’s breakout Dodger debut in 2014. Since then he has a 108 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and a 151 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. That’s not as hopeless as his 77 wRC+ against southpaws this year, but it’s still significantly backwards. Corey Seager moves down a spot to number three in the lineup, Yasiel Puig is batting cleanup, Adrian Gonzalez is still playing first, and Joc Pederson gets the rare start against a lefty in center.

Hoping to stave off a desperate situation is Kenta Maeda, who takes the ball for the Dodgers. Maeda struggled significantly in his final tune-up against the Giants, throwing his worst start of the season. The results of one start aren’t necessarily concerning, but what might be more of a red flag was his velocity. Maeda’s fastball averaged a hair over 90 mph in his last start, the lowest since he was beat up by the Mets in mid-May. His previous start against San Diego was lower than what is average for him as well. Perhaps he is tiring, but perhaps the week of rest will help alleviate that somewhat.

For those wondering about Maeda’s playoff record, his Carp were usually not in contention. They only made the playoffs twice in his tenure, and he made three starts. Here are the results:

Year	Opponent	IP	H	R/ER	HR	BB	K
2013	Tigers	7	5	1	0	2	5
2013	Giants	5	4	3	1	1	2
2014	Tigers	6	7	1	1	1	6

If you’re looking for hot take fodder here, there really isn’t any. The end results: five runs in 18 innings (2.50 ERA), with 13 strikeouts and 4 walks. The conclusion: Kenta Maeda was basically himself. Two good starts and one mediocre one basically add up to what his averages were on that side of the Pacific. Hopefully he can be himself today, too.

Meanwhile:

Dave Roberts said Julio Urias is scheduled to start Game 4 but that Clayton Kershaw is available. Team will discuss after Game 3

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) October 10, 2016

I have opinions on this, but we can cross that bridge if we get to it.

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