Looking at the Top 10 Dodgers Prospects lists of Baseball Prospectus & Baseball America

Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus have already come out with their respective Dodgers’ prospect lists. While they clearly won’t compare to mine — nor will those of FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline and The Athletic — they’re fun to look at.

BP’s list went 20 deep and came out Dec. 18, while BA just released its Top 10 list (and it’ll go 30 deep in the Prospect Handbook) on Jan. 9. BA also released its Top 100 prospects, which saw the top seven Dodger prospects make the cut. For the purposes of this article, I’ll just look at each Top 10. Full looks at all prospect lists will come, well, after all of them are published.

Baseball Prospectus Top 10

RankPlayer
1SS Gavin Lux
2RHP Dustin May
3RHP Josiah Gray
43B Miguel Vargas
5C Keibert Ruiz
6RHP Tony Gonsolin
7C Diego Cartaya
8SS Jeter Downs
93B Kody Hoese
10RHP Gerardo Carrillo

Lots to break down here. Obviously, there’s no disputing Nos. 1 and 2. Lux and May — in that order — are easily the two best prospects in the system, so it’s no surprise to see them here. Gray checking in at No. 3 is a bit of a surprise (and I wonder if the BP guys have been peaking at my drafts), but I dig it. No. 4 is just downright exciting.

Vargas has caught my eye ever since the Dodgers signed him. He might be my favorite prospect in the system. My ranking isn’t nearly as aggressive as BP’s — and I love it. BP has been ahead of most when it comes to Dodger prospects in the past. It was the first to jump firmly aboard the May bandwagon in 2017, so to see Vargas ranked this highly this soon has me positively giddy.

Ruiz takes a bit of a tumble — as he will on all lists — but he’s still a Top 100 prospect and, with a solid season, could be right back in the Top 50. Gonsolin would probably be higher if he were younger.

Then we come to the youngest player on the list in Cartaya. He’s going on 18 and is already a Top 10 prospect in the system. He’ll challenge for a spot in its Top 101.

Downs, along with Gray, sure are making last winter’s big trade with the Reds look good. Hoese, despite having an abbreviated pro debut, still did enough to crack the Top 10.

And now, the most surprising player who will be in the Top 10 — because I’m confident he won’t be in anyone else’s — is Carrillo. He might be a reliever long-term, but BP doesn’t think so. Here’s an excerpt from the write-up:

“He’s not a big guy, at all, but the carrying tool is effortless mid-90s gas that ran up to 98 during the season and wandered into triple digits during his stint in the Arizona Fall League. The pitch features some run and sink, allowing him to get under barrels and generate plenty of groundball contact. A curve in the 78-82 band breaks with big— though early— vertical action. He sells the pitch well, but it does hump enough for some of the better hitters in the league to identify and lay off. His third pitch is a mid-80s slider that remains in the developmental stage; he’s still trying to get a feel for it, but it tunnels well with the fastball, and has the chance to develop into an average pitch down the line. There is a changeup, but it’s a distant fourth pitch with modest action.”

You can see why there’s reason for excitement. The bit about BP being first on May applies here as well.

Baseball America Top 10

RankPlayer
1SS Gavin Lux
2RHP Dustin May
3C Keibert Ruiz
4RHP Tony Gonsolin
5RHP Josiah Gray
6SS Jeter Downs
7C Diego Cartaya
83B Kody Hoese
92B Michael Busch
10OF Luis Rodriguez

Same thing I said above about Lux and May still applies. BA still believes in Ruiz, which isn’t that far-fetched because he’s only 21 years old.

BA is actually higher on Gonsolin than most. I don’t suspect he’ll get a higher ranking from any other outlet. Gray and Downs made nice impression in their first year in the org, and BA is just as high on Cartaya as BP is. All seven of them made their Top 100.

Hoese could find himself higher by next season, if not midseason. Busch makes his first appearance and, if he can handle second base adequately enough, he could be an offensive force there.

Rodriguez is the most interesting ranking here. The 17-year-old signed out of Venezuela in July and, despite not making his pro debut yet, has good enough scouting reports to land a Top 10 spot. He was also considered for BA’s Top 100, as he checked in as a Top 150 prospect. He might have the highest ceiling of any prospect in the system if he’s getting this treatment before seeing a professional pitch.

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Things are still good down on the farm. Once Lux and May graduate, the next wave of prospects will need to step up for the Dodgers to maintain one of the game’s best farm system. Seeing the way they’ve developed guys in recent years, there’s a good chance of that happening.

About Dustin Nosler

Dustin Nosler
Dustin Nosler began writing about the Dodgers in July 2009 at his blog, Feelin' Kinda Blue. He co-hosts a weekly podcast with Jared Massey called Dugout Blues. He is a contributor/editor at The Hardball Times. He graduated from California State University, Sacramento, with his bachelor’s degree in journalism and a minor in digital media. While at CSUS, he worked for the student-run newspaper The State Hornet for three years, culminating with a 1-year term as editor-in-chief. He resides in Stockton, Calif.