During my 40-man roster reset after the World Series, I said that MLB Trade Rumors hadn’t yet released its salary arbitration projections. Well, turns out those were released on Oct. 15 — the same day the Dodgers lost Game 4 of the NLCS 10-2 to go down 3-1 against the Braves, so you’ll forgive me if this topic wasn’t at the forefront of my mind.
We all know what happened from that point: Happiness!
This year’s lot of projections are a bit different, thanks to a 60-game season. Matt Schwartz of MLBTR did his level best to get the projections out. Each player will have three different projections, which is explained here:
“This winter, those involved in the process do not know how arbitration will account for the 60-game season, nor is there an agreement in place between MLB and the MLBPA on how to address it. Many cases may end up getting resolved in a hearing room. To reflect that uncertainty, we’re providing three projections for each player:
-Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
-Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
-Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise
Keep in mind that with a potential record number of non-tenders, many of these players will be released by December 2nd.”
With that, here are the Dodger projections.
- Scott Alexander (Arb 2) – $1M/$1.2M/$1.0M
- Austin Barnes (Arb 2) – $1.4M/$1.7M/ $1.3M
- Cody Bellinger (Arb 2) – $11.5M/$15.9M/$13.1M
- Walker Buehler (Arb 1) – $2.3M/$3.1M/$2.3M
- Dylan Floro (Arb 1) – $900K/$1.2M/ $900K
- Corey Seager (Arb 3) – $9.3M/$15.0M/$10.4M
- Julio Urias (Arb 2) – $1.6M/$3.0M/$1.7M
Editor’s note: Terrance Gore, arbitration-eligible, was outrighted last week, which is why he doesn’t appear above
Nothing really jumps out either way. Bellinger is still going to get paid, no matter which projection is closest. There’s a significant difference in Seager’s projections because he had a fantastic 2020 regular season.
Buehler is a first-time arbitration-eligible guy, and his monies are only going to go up from here on out. And despite being a playoff hero, Urias’ salary will still be quite low for a guy in his second year of arbitration.
Barnes and Floro are easy tenders. The only guys I could see getting non-tendered is Alexander, but for a million bucks, he seems like a worthwhile gamble, especially with the Dodgers focusing on ground ball relievers more in recent years.
What’s going to be more interesting than seeing which players the Dodgers tender (should be all) and what they end up getting is who gets non-tendered across the league. Perhaps the Dodgers could take advantage of some quality –usually younger — talent getting let go and adding them to the stable. We’ll see if that happens.