Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers (61-42) lost 8-3 last night against the Giants (49-54), ending their five game winning streak. They were no-hit into the seventh inning, an ugly showing from the offense. Yohan Ramírez was bad in his second inning of work, as Dave Roberts was likely hoping to get two innings from him. Joe Kelly and Ryan Yarbrough ended up having to pitch regardless, so the overworked bullpen didn’t catch much of a break anyways.
However, the real story is that Clayton Kershaw is making his season debut. He should be healthy again, coming off his first off-season surgery of his career. When he’s healthy, he’s always effective, and the rotation could surely use it. I wouldn’t pencil him into a theoretical playoff rotation without having seen him at all, but if he can replicate how he performed last year prior to his shoulder injury, the Dodgers are adding a real force to their staff. Logan Webb will be on the mound for the Giants, creating a fun matchup (hopefully) for Kershaw’s season debut.
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| 1:10 P.M. | Los Angeles | ||
| DH | Soler | DH | Ohtani (L) |
| SS | Fitzgerald | LF | T. Hernández |
| CF | Ramos | 1B | Freeman (L) |
| 3B | Chapman | CF | Pages |
| C | Bailey (S) | 2B | Lux (L) |
| 1B | Villar | RF | Heyward (L) |
| 2B | Estrada | 3B | K. Hernández |
| RF | Yastrzemski (L) | C | Barnes |
| LF | Hill | SS | Ahmed |
| P | Webb (R) | P | Kershaw (L) |
It was a poor offensive showing from the Dodgers last night to say the least. Chris Taylor doubled in the seventh inning to break up the Giants no-hitter, but at what cost? Taylor had been playing better over the last month or so, but is now down with a groin strain. Austin Barnes managed to get one plate appearance as a pinch hitter, and added a single to extend his hitting streak to ten games. On the active roster, his .663 OPS is higher than that of Taylor (.542), Kiké Hernández (.566), Gavin Lux (.611), Cavan Biggio (.599), and Nick Ahmed (.583).
Shohei Ohtani has a 44.4% strikeout rate in the six games since the All-Star break, with 12 strikeouts in 27 plate appearances. He’s been fine with four extra-base hits in the same stretch, but he’s had three games with three strikeout, and two back to back. He’s had some tough matchups against Blake Snell and Robbie Ray, and I’m sure he’ll get out of it soon. The Giants had nine hits last night, but had ten walks which really did the work for them. They piled runs up against Ramírez, while Kelly allowed all of his inherited runners to score.
The Giants shake things up a bit as they’re facing the left-handed Kershaw. The only lefty in the lineup will be Yastrzemski. Wade Jr. will be replaced by David Villar at first base, Thairo Estrada will be at second base over Brett Wisely, and Derek Hill will be in left field over Michael Conforto. Tyler Fitzgerald added a double and two walks last night, so he’ll slide up to second in the order. The Dodgers need to throw strikes to this Giants’ offense. LaMonte Wade Jr. has a 23.3% walk rate against them, Jorge Soler is at 22.0%, Matt Chapman at 18.5%, and Mike Yastrzemski at 12.5%. That can’t happen. Their offense is 16th in batting average (.242), and 19th in slugging (.388), and those stats don’t improve for them on the road, so just throw some strikes.
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Here’s how Webb and Kershaw compare. Kershaw’s numbers are from 2023.
Kershaw was clearly pitching injured last year, and probably should’ve been held out of the NLDS in hindsight. Over his final five starts, he walked 14 batters in 24.1 innings pitched, a staggering 14.1% walk-rate for someone who has limited walks his entire career. His career in high-walk rate was 13% back in 2009, his first full season, and has been at 7.0% or lower every single season since 2012. He’s one of the best pitchers of all time, and you don’t need me to tell you that. Left shoulder inflammation kept him out from 6/27 through 8/10, and his performance was significantly different after returning in August. Prior to going on the Injured List, he had a 2.55 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 27.7% strikeout-rate and a 6.3% walk-rate. In his eight starts after, he had a 22.2% strikeout-rate, 11.1% walk-rate, 1.10 WHIP, and a 5.40 FIP. He had a 2.23 ERA over that stretch despite not getting strikeouts and giving out free passes because he’s the best but that’s besides the point. He’s 56 strikeouts away from 3000, a mark only 19 pitchers and three lefties have ever reached. CC Sabathia, Steve Carlton, and Randy Johnson are the only lefties ahead of him.
Webb took the loss his last time out against the Rockies, allowing four runs on eight hits and four walks over six innings with four strikeouts. It was his third straight outing in which he’s given up at least seven hits, and the four walks were a season-high. He’s allowed multiple runs in nine consecutive starts, which is quite surprising for him. He has a 5.52 ERA over his last five starts, with a seven inning two run outing against the Dodgers sandwiched in there. He’s made three starts against them this season, with a 3.78 ERA over 16.2 innings pitched. That’s now a total of 15 regular season starts against the Dodgers, with a 3.92 ERA over 80.1 innings.
He’s a great pitcher, and one of the most consistent in the sport, frequently going deep into starts and logging a ton of innings. He’s fifth in that department going into today’s outing. He’s not perfect, as he is generating strikeouts at a slightly lower than league-average rate which ultimately does hurt his ceiling. His career batting average allowed is .249, and has averaged a .239 over his previous three seasons, while it’s up to .266 this year. His BABIP allowed over those three seasons is at .301 and it’s up to .330 this year. When you rely on ground balls, you’re susceptible to just having some outings where more balls find their way through the infield. His 2.92 FIP is great due to giving up home runs at a lower than league-average rate, walking batters at a below league-average rate, and generating strikeouts near league-average. All things that FIP loves. Based on his body of work, you’d expect his ERA to eventually drop a little bit, but even with his ERA a little higher than it has been over the past three years, he’s still likely to post his fourth consecutive season over 4 fWAR.
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Did Jordan Lyles have a 6.28 ERA last year? Yes. Did he lead baseball in complete games with three? Yes. From 2021-2023, his 536.2 innings pitched ranked eleventh in baseball, despite his 5.28 ERA. He’s been one of the worst starting pitchers by ERA over the last four years, but I think guys who can just log innings are cool. Innings are hard to come by, and sometimes you just need starters to take the ball every fifth day. I doubt he contributes significantly this year and it would likely be bad if he did, but if Prior and Co. could fix Lyles, I think it’d be their best reclamation yet. Realistically it’s just easy depth to get.
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Ramírez had an up and down season with the Dodgers, ultimately posting a 5.52 ERA with Los Angeles.
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First pitch is at 1:10 p.m. PDT on SNLA and MLB Network.
Enjoy every moment you get to see Kershaw pitch.
