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The art of negotiation is a difficult thing to master. If you can, you can make a pretty penny in this world.
Looking at all these Jose Fernandez trade proposals online make me wonder if there are any good negotiators still out there. The armchair GMs are always going to propose ridiculously lop-sided deals. Those never happen. The ones that happen are when both team’s fanbase hates a deal.
Marlins’ beat writer for MLB.com Joe Frisaro tweeted this tonight.
For #Dodgers to land Jose Fernandez from #Marlins hearing it would take Urias, Seager, Pederson and two more. #WinterMeetings
— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) December 9, 2015
That is, obviously, insane. Dave Cameron looked at Fernandez’s trade value and, while it’s super high, it isn’t high enough to include Corey Seager in a deal for him.
“By pretty much any account, Urias and Seager are both top five prospects in MLB right now, with Seager often ranking #1 on such lists. Both are nearly major league ready, with Steamer projecting Seager for +2.8 WAR in 2016, and Urias for +2.5 WAR if he threw 200 innings in the majors as a 19-year-old. Two near-ready elite talents of this level is a pretty clear no for the Dodgers, but it’s not unexpected for the Marlins to at least ask for Seager or Urias as the primary piece in return.
But Seager should probably be a flat no.”
He goes onto break down Fernandez’s value over the next three years and Seager’s in the same time. Seager ends up being more valuable, which isn’t terribly surprising. Read the article, it’s well worth your time.
When the Fernandez rumors popped up, the Marlins reportedly asked for Seager, Julio Urias and Scott Van Slyke as a starting point. They are absolutely within their rights to ask for that. It doesn’t mean they’ll get it — and I’m sure they know that.
What really gets me is what preceded the tweet above.
Heard #Marlins #Dbacks were discussion Jose for Corbin, Inciarte, Blair, Swanson, Drury.
— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) December 9, 2015
It really makes me wonder what is going on. The fact is, no one knows what’s going on — not even the baseball writers. This isn’t on Frisaro. He’s reporting the information he’s being given. If the Marlns’ front office thinks it can get the type of quality in that Dodger package, then I have some bad news.
There is no way the Seager, Urias, Joc Pederson and two more is equivalent to the Patrick Corbin, Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair, Dansby Swanson and Brandon Drury package. Inciarte, Blair and Swanson were traded to the Braves for Shelby Miller on Tuesday night. It was quite a haul for the Braves. My best guess at a 1-to-1 match would be something like this:
Corbin – Alex Wood
Inciarte – Van Slyke
Blair – Grant Holmes, Jose De Leon or Jharel Cotton
Swanson – Urias
Drury – Scott Schebler or Jose Peraza (or someone equivalent)
I don’t completely hate including those guys in a deal for Fernandez, so perhaps my proposal isn’t realistic. But given the information available, it seems like a decent 1-to-1 proposal.
We’ll see what happens tomorrow. My gut tells me there will be a big move. It also tells me that move could very well be Fernandez, but I’m also not getting my hopes up.
