Dodgers @ Marlins September 11, 2016: The Day After

	Dodgers			Marlins
	10:10 AM PST			Miami
2B	Utley		2B	Gordon
RF	Reddick		RF	Suzuki
SS	Seager		3B	Prado
1B	Gonzalez		CF	Yelich
C	Grandal		1B	Bour
CF	Pederson		C	Realmuto
LF	Ethier		LF	Dietrich
3B	Kendrick		SS	Hechavarria
P	Maeda (R)		P	Urena (R)

Now that everybody’s had the chance to sleep it off, are we all still heated about the Rich Hill decision? Maybe. To disagree is fine, and I personally sort of did myself, as I wanted Dave Roberts to let him go one batter at a time. However, I would hope the emotional reactions to it would’ve dispersed by now, perhaps realizing that the Dodgers still won yesterday and that everybody will move on, just like they have from every supposedly season-ending adversity this team has faced in 2016.

Oh yeah, about that decision, the controversy about the Hill’s removal, and then the controversy about whether Roberts was lying about the blister or not.

Roberts said the trainer saw tenderness on Hill's index finger, even though it wasn't bothering Hill as he pitched.

— Ken Gurnick (@kengurnick) September 11, 2016

I’d rather have Roberts be caught lying and Hill really was absolutely fine than this be a thing. Sigh.

Let’s be honest, though, it’s no surprise that Roberts had more information available to make his decision than we did. Nor is it a surprise that Hill felt fine or wanted to feel fine, given that he’s aware of his reputation for being made of glass, and downplayed any potential problems.

—–

Back to today’s game, the Dodgers have a chance to get back to .500 on the road today. I try not to get caught up in those kinds of splits, but … I mean that’s weird, right? Concern level is mild, but it does seem like they’ve played significantly worse on the road this year. Or maybe baseball’s just weird. Dunno.

The Dodgers will send Kenta Maeda and his surprising strikeout rate of more than one batter per inning to the mound. Maeda has a 3.29 ERA, and his peripherals are improving after it seemed like the league adjusted to him, and he’s down to a 3.60 FIP and a 3.49 DRA. That’s promising and a lot more like a solid #3 profile than a good #4 or whatever he looked like for a bit.

Maeda throws a four-seam and a two-seam fastball from 88-92 mph about 43% of the time, and throws a slider about 29% of the time and a change about 10% of the time. What I wish he would throw less of is his curve, which he currently uses at about an 18% clip. I understand it’s his get-me-over pitch for a strike, but when hitters sit on it, they absolutely tee off and it’s his only pitch that is clocking negative in run value this year.

This seems like an easy fix.

On the other side of things, the Marlins send Jose Urena to the hill, making his ninth start of the year. Urena hasn’t been so great this year and doesn’t project to deserve much better so far, clocking in at a 5.54 ERA, 4.53 FIP, and 5.37 DRA. As we know, though, weird stuff happens.

Urena certainly has the stuff to make it happen, as he throws a four-seam and two-seam fastball about 68% of the time and sits 94-96 mph with it. He adds a slider (16% use) and change (16% use) as his primary off-speed pitches, though the scouting reports on those two pitches have been less than stellar.

Seems to me like his command in the zone will be the biggest factor in whether he has success or not today.

—–

Since I can already see the hand-wringing coming, it’s worth noting that this seems like the ideal pitcher to sit Yasiel Puig against given that he’s right-handed and he throws hard. Even when Puig was at the peak of his powers, he struggled with plus fastball velocity, so this outfield configuration makes sense.

Speaking of that, while Andre Ethier made his return last night in a pinch-hit appearance, he gets his first start of 2016 today. Getting the day off is Justin Turner, who will be replaced by Howie Kendrick getting the rare nod at the hot corner.

Let’s go.

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