Dodgers @ D-backs Sept. 18, 2016: House Money

Today is a day game after a night game, a left-handed pitcher is starting, and the Dodgers have the division almost in-hand (a few more games’ margin would be nice, but the odds are heavily in their favor). As such, the Dodgers lineup, well, isn’t pretty. Austin Barnes getting a start at catcher isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but Charlie Culberson, Enrique Hernandez and Rob Segedin getting starts at the same time is something you’d expect on the post-clinch lineup, not before the division is wrapped up.

	Dodgers			D’backs
	1:10 PM PST			Arizona
LF	Kendrick		2B	Segura
3B	Turner		SS	Owings
SS	Seager		1B	Goldschmidt
RF	Puig		3B	Lamb
1B	Segedin		LF	Drury
CF	Hernandez		CF	Haniger
2B	Culberson		RF	Brito
C	Barnes		C	Gosewisch
P	De Leon (R)		P	Ray (L)

Taking the rubber for the Diamondbacks is Robbie Ray, whom the Dodgers actually managed to score three runs off of in his last start, though he did strike out 12 of them in six innings. Ray is a typical case of advanced metrics saying he should be really, really good (he’s 8th-best in Baseball Prospectus’ DRA-based WARP) but his ERA isn’t matching that performance yet. Pitchers not living up to their underlying ability has been an issue with the Diamondbacks for a few years now (to the point where it probably isn’t just bad luck), so this isn’t necessarily surprising. Still, Ray has averaged a shade over 95mph on his fastball this year from the left side, the third-highest among southpaws in the majors and the highest in the National League. It wouldn’t exactly be surprising if the Dodgers have trouble connecting once again.

For the Dodgers, Jose De Leon gets the starting nod. In his last start he was very unlike himself, walking two Yankees and striking out just three. There exists a scenario in which De Leon would be a playoff starter, so hopefully he can recapture some of his stuff this time around. De Leon is known for having home run issues, so perhaps Arizona is not a great match for him park-wise. Still, if he’s going to pitch in the playoffs, he will need to overcome difficulties such as this.

In surprisingly positive injury news, Alex Wood will be activated tomorrow. We’ve already covered the benefits of his activation here, but having another left-handed weapon in the bullpen is more than welcome, especially when Adam Liberatore‘s health is still questionable. It’s hard to remember, but Wood was amazing in the ten starts or so before he got hurt, so hopefully his mechanical tweaks and increased velocity will stick through the injury and usage changes.

In less positive injury news, Scott Kazmir pitched a simulated game and developed a blister. Maybe there’s something in the water?

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