Dodgers @ Nationals October 13, 2016: NLDS Game 5

	Dodgers			Nationals
	5:00 PM PT, FS1			D.C.
2B	Utley		CF	Turner
SS	Seager		RF	Harper
3B	Turner		LF	Werth
1B	González		2B	Murphy
RF	Reddick		3B	Rendon
CF	Pederson		1B	Zimmerman
C	Grandal		SS	Espinosa
LF	Toles		C	Lobatón
P	Hill (L)		P	Scherzer (R)

It’s been four years in a row that the Dodgers have chosen to pitch Clayton Kershaw on short rest in Game 4 of their NLDS. That decision carried extra weight this year, thanks to the rain postponement of Game 2. Mainly, it left the Dodgers with two less-than-ideal options to start the Game 5 that they hoped to reach: Rich Hill on short rest, or rookie Julio Urías.

Well, they’ve reached Game 5, and it’s Hill who’s gotten the call.

Hill’s Game 2 start against the Nationals on Sunday began very well, as he struck out seven batters in three scoreless innings. Things fell apart for him in a bit of a hurry, though. Hill gave up a two-out, three-run home run to Jose Lobatón (who bats eighth today) in the bottom of the fourth, and was chased with one out in the bottom of the fifth after three singles brought in another Nationals run.

Hill has not pitched on three days’ rest once this season, and here’s what Dave Roberts had to say about what the Dodgers are hoping for from him tonight.

Dave Roberts on #Dodgers pitching plan: "Rich — give us all you have for as long as you can." Then it will depend on matchups

— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) October 13, 2016

The odds are pretty good that the bullpen will play a big role in tonight’s game, as they have throughout the rest of the series. We should expect to see Urías used in this game, and possibly even very early. (Web“absolutely” won’t be seeing Kershaw, though.)

Urías has faced the Nationals twice this season, once at Dodger Stadium and once at Nationals Park. The young lefty fared decently well in both games. In his start at home on June 22, Urias threw 94 pitches over five strong innings, giving up two runs on six hits and a walk while striking out six. In his start in D.C. on July 21, Urías pitched four innings, allowing one run on five hits while striking out four. He was lifted after 77 pitches.

While Hill is going on short rest, Max Scherzer is going on an extra day of rest, as it’s been five days since his Game 1 start. Throughout his career, Scherzer has been at his best on five days’ rest. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2016. Scherzer has a 2.94 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in the 21 starts he made on four days’ rest this season, and in the nine starts he made on five days’ rest, he has a 3.30 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. So he’s still been good, just not as good.

Scherzer will face the exact same lineup he saw in Game 1 of the series. The four earned runs (and two home runs) that Scherzer allowed in that game don’t look great, but he did settle in after the third-inning dinger he gave up to Justin Turner, retiring 10 of the final 11 batters he faced.

It may be worth noting that much of the contact made off of Scherzer in Game 1 was pretty solid — four of the last nine balls put in play were hit at velocities exceeding 100 mph, so the Dodgers weren’t shut down entirely. It may or may not also be worth noting that Scherzer hasn’t been all that successful pitching in elimination games in the past (no, but actually, take that with a massive grain of salt). It’s definitely worth noting that Scherzer, a likely Cy Young candidate, remains a formidable opponent, no matter what.

All the other Division Series have been decided, so the eyes of the baseball world are solely on this game tonight. It has the promise of being a good one. There’s nothing quite like a game that’s do-or-die for both teams.

Hang in there, pals.

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