Angels @ Dodgers September 26, 2020: Pursuing the 2003 Tigers I guess?

There’s absolutely nothing left to play for in these final two games of the season. The NL West is clinched, “homefield” through the World Series is taken care of and the Dodgers already lost a series.

And thanks to last night’s victory, the Angels are also left with nothing to play for as the Dodgers handed the Astros a playoff berth (though it seems likely it was inevitable).

They clinched this incredibly specific record as well, though it also doesn’t really mean much for this season.

According to @EliasSports the Dodgers are the 4th team in the World Series Era (since 1903) to win at least 60% of their decisions vs every team they faced in a season and the first in 101 years. Their worst win pct vs any opponent this season was .600 (6-4 vs Padres and Giants). pic.twitter.com/kssxcUQv3p

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 26, 2020

Sitting at 41-17, the Dodgers are two games back of the win total for the 2003 Tigers, who finished 43-119 as four of their top six batters by PA finished with a wRC+ of 92 or lower and their top nine pitchers by IP holding an ERA of 4.67 or worse.

So I suppose that’s the focus now?

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Leading all Dodgers pitchers in WAR at 1.5 through his 40 2/3 IP this season, Tony Gonsolin enters his final appearance of the regular season still looking to absolutely lock down a playoff start.

At least that’s what continues to be written, which seems odd given that by at least a few metrics he’s been the best starter the Dodgers have had this season. Gonsolin’s ERA is 1.77, fourth on the team behind three relievers, and his FIP is 2.44, again behind two relievers with about half the innings.

Thanks to his last outing, striking out 10 in 5 innings against the Rockies at Coors Field, Gonsolin’s K% is now up to 26.3%. That’s 29th in the league among the 109 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, and lands just ahead of old friend Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Gonsolin’s now at 10 Ks in 20 PAs and a 50% Whiff rate with the slider to right-handed batters and 5 Ks on 14 PAs and a 43.3 Whiff rate on the splitter, helping his Whiff% against righties to sit at 31.2%. It’s a bit lower against lefties, sitting at 27.8, but it hasn’t mattered much with Gonsolin’s XSLG and XWOBA for righties (.399 and .289) and lefties (.394 and .296) looking similar.

The one slightly interesting thing to me is the difference in exit velocity between the two sides. Lefties are down at 84.8 overall, including 79.6 against the splitter and 88.6 against his four-seam fastball, while righties are 91.9 overall, and 93.6 against the splitter and 91.5 against his four-seamer.

Lastly, Gonsolin enters this final start with an 11.8 wFB, 4.03 wFB/C, 3.2 wSL and 3.22 wSL/C. That’s 3rd, 1st, 25th and 7th respectively among pitchers with his inning total, as Gonsolin’s fastball is pretty clearly among the best in the league, if not simply the best outright this year.

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	6:10 p.m.		Los Angeles
3B	Fletcher	RF	Betts
RF	Walsh (L)	DH	Seager (L)
1B	Pujols	3B	Turner
DH	Ohtani (L)	2B	Muncy (L)
C	Stassi	1B	Bellinger (L)
LF	Ward	C	Smith
CF	Adell	LF	Pederson (L)
2B	Jones	SS	Taylor
SS	Soto	CF	Pollock
P	Teheran (R)	P	Gonsolin (R)

Now eliminated from playoff contention, the Angels made a change to tonight’s starting pitcher (and released their lineup an hour and 35 minutes before first pitch).

Julio Teheran is starting tonight instead of Dylan Bundy with the #Angels out of the race. Jahmai Jones was recalled with Luis Rengifo headed to the injured list.

— Rhett Bollinger (@RhettBollinger) September 26, 2020

A cut on Dylan Bundy‘s finger is the cause, with Teheran and his 9.49/8.68 ERA/FIP taking over. During his first meeting with the Dodgers this season, Teheran allowed four runs (including homers to Keibert Ruiz and Max Muncy) in 3 1/3 IP.

It also does not include Mike Trout or Anthony Rendon, so congratulations to the Angels for moving into tank mode while they still had some time.

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This is an arbitrary start and end point, but here’s a look at how the Dodgers’ have hit over the past two weeks as the postseason is just about to begin.

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wRC+	WAR
Taylor	47	.333	.404	.810	1.214	215	0.8
Bellinger	54	.341	.463	.568	1.031	183	0.7
Turner	31	.429	.484	.714	1.198	223	0.5
Seager	54	.333	.389	.604	.993	164	0.5
Rios	31	.300	.323	.767	1.089	184	0.4
Betts	56	.264	.304	.434	.738	100	0.3
Smith	42	.308	.357	.513	.870	137	0.3
Barnes	16	.182	.438	.182	.619	111	0.1
Hernandez	23	.227	.261	.455	.715	91	0.0
Muncy	49	.190	.306	.357	.663	87	0.0
Pollock	43	.175	.209	.550	.759	92	0.0
Pederson	18	.176	.222	.235	.458	28	-0.1
Lux	25	.167	.200	.292	.492	32	-0.2

Chris Taylor is at 1.6 WAR for the season, with half of that coming in his past 47 PAs. Cody Bellinger is in a similar spot, with 1.1 WAR for the season and more than half coming in his last 54 PAs.

Edwin Rios‘ 0.4 WAR is also a considerable amount of the 0.5 WAR he’s at, with four homers and two doubles in his last 27 PAs.

I thought about doing the same thing for the team’s relievers just for how entertaining it would be, but Kenley’s ERA/FIP/xFIP came out to 7.20/0.98/2.52 and I didn’t want to go back down that road again.

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In the news of the day, the numbers above have Taylor in line to be a regular in the postseason lineup.

Dave Roberts said Chris Taylor could be the everyday second baseman in the postseason.

— Jorge Castillo (@jorgecastillo) September 26, 2020

Following up on what was mentioned yesterday, Dave Roberts expanded a bit on the potential for having three catchers in the playoffs.

#Dodgers Dave Roberts on carrying three catchers on postseason roster: "It's a conversation. If we do Keibert (Ruiz) is at the top of the list. … I think it's more realistic in the five- and seven-game series than the three-game Wild Card Series."

— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) September 26, 2020

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First pitch is set for 6:10 p.m. if you still feel the need to watch this game.