How the Fernando Tatis Jr. contract extension could impact Corey Seager

In case you missed it last week, the Padres signed Fernando Tatis Jr. to a massive 14-year, $340 million contract extension. He’ll be around for many, many years to come.

But how does this impact Corey Seager?

Seager, going into his age-27 season, is set to become a free agent after the 2021 season — barring an unexpected contract extension of his own. With Scott Boras as his agent, I wouldn’t hold my breath on something coming together before next offseason. He also said he isn’t really interested in talking about it.

Asked if he's discussed a discussion with the Dodgers or would be open to it, Corey Seager said he doesn't want to talk about that.

Seager on his impending free agency: "That's not my focus…It's never been about that."

— Jorge Castillo (@jorgecastillo) February 25, 2021

There aren’t a ton of true free-agent deals for shortstops to compare Seager to in recent years. The only one who really compares is Manny Machado, who signed a 10-year, $300 million deal with the Padres two winters ago (coincidentally, after being the fill-in for an injured Seager). Machado now plays third base, but he’s being paid like a top-of-the-market shortstop. He also got his deal heading into his age-26 season.

Didi Gregorius re-signed with the Phillies for 2 years and $28 million. Marcus Semien signed a 1-year, $18 million deal with the Blue Jays this offseason, while Andrelton Simmons got a 1-year, $10 million deal from the Twins. Outside of those three, every other shortstop of note is either still arbitration-eligible (Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Trea Turner) or has already signed an extension (Tim Anderson, Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Crawford, Paul DeJong). So, there isn’t a lot of recent examples to draw on.

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Tatis’ deal buys out all his arbitration years, plus an additional 10 (!) years. For the purposes of seeing what impact it has on Seager, we’ll assume Corey signs an 8-year deal and look at how that 8 years correlates to Tatis’ deal. But in terms of what they made before their respective free-agent years — 2015-21 for Seager and, what would have been 2019-24 — Seager made $27.04 million. Tatis’ deal will pay him $24.55 million in that same time. That’s a bit surprising, but the Padres are also getting a better financial deal on the front end than the Dodgers have gotten with Seager via the arbitration process.

From his age-28 season and the next seven years, Tatis will make $266 million, for an average of $33.25 million. In my Offseason Plan post, I proposed a 7-year, $182 million deal — an average of $26 million per season. In the interest of what I said above, let’s make that an 8-year, $208 million deal. So, is Tatis $7.25 million per season better or more valuable than Seager? Probably not. For argument’s sake, let’s halve that $7.25 million to get to an AAV for Seager of $29.625 million on an 8-year deal ($237 million total).

Would you do 8 years and $237 million to keep Seager? Seeing what Anthony Rendon got (7/245) being two years older and Machado got (10/300) being two years younger, 8/237 seems to work pretty well for all involved. If it’s a 7-year deal, you’re looking at about $208 million over that span, which might be more realistic given the potential free-agent market next offseason. (Remember, it’s not your money!)

If Lindor gets a contract extension from the Mets, that could also impact Seager’s market next winter. The same can be said for Baez, Correa and/or Story, but I suspect only one of those guys (Correa) would be interested in extending before testing free agency.

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Seager is coming off an incredible 2020 season that culminated in a World Series MVP. He’s going to get paid a ton of money in his next contract. It just remains to be seen if it’s coming from the Dodgers or another organization. Here’s hoping it’s the former.