Brewers @ Dodgers – August 17, 2023: Looking for 11 straight wins as the reinvention of Lance Lynn continues

So far, I’ve been very wrong about Lance Lynn as his three starts with the Dodgers have resulted in:

18 innings, 22 strikeouts, a 2.00 ERA/4.37 FIP, 13 hits allowed (4 home runs) and four walk.

Honestly, the ERA could be 4.37 and it would pretty much be fine. After allowing three home runs in his debut against the Athletics, only one went out against the Padres and then Lynn kept every hit in the park against a very bad Rockies team, just the seventh game without allowing a homer across 24 starts this season. Landing between 93 and 96 pitches in his three starts, Lynn’s workload seems pretty clear as his 5-inning outing against Colorado was one of just eight of those 24 starts that didn’t surpass 5 innings.

At first glance, it appears Dodgers have been pretty kind to Lynn as they average seven runs per start. However, it took until the 4th inning to score 4 against the A’s and 4 of the runs against the Rockies came in the 6th. The six early runs in the first two innings against the Padres was great, but Lynn has allowed just one of his five runs to cross in the first three innings so far.

	7:10 P.M.		Los Angeles
LF	Yelich (L)	2B	Betts
DH	Contreras	1B	Freeman (L)
1B	Santana (S)	LF	Peralta (L)
CF	Frelick (L)	DH	Martinez
SS	Adames	3B	Muncy (L)
3B	Monasterio	RF	Heyward (L)
C	Caratini (S)	CF	Outman (L)
2B	Turang (L)	SS	Hernandez
RF	Taylor	C	Barnes
P	Burnes (R)	P	Lynn (R)

In his career, Corbin Burnes has a pretty minimal split between righties and lefties. Burnes holds a .614 OPS, 2.95 FIP and a .271 wOBA against 1,346 left-handed batters and a .601 OPS, 3.23 FIP and a .264 wOBA against 1,326 right-handed batters. In 2023, righties have been even better with a .300 wOBA and a .686 OPS compared to a .233 wOBA and a .505 OPS for lefties. However, it is a right-handed pitcher so David Peralta and Jason Heyward are in the lineup with the former batting third for the second time this season (the first being all the way back on April 9 against the D-backs).

Will Smith caught a Clayton Kershaw start last night so he is contractually obligated to be on the bench tonight with Austin Barnes starting behind the plate. Chris Taylor, Miguel Rojas and Amed Rosario are all available off the bench as the Dodgers are essentially starting six outfielders.

Burnes actually holds an 8.50 ERA in four starts and six total appearances against the Dodgers. That includes two starts in 2022, with three runs allowed across 5 2/3 on Aug. 18 and then seven runs allowed (four earned) in 3 2/3 innings on Aug. 23. Back in 2021, Burnes allowed three runs in 2 innings though all of that came on a three-run homer for Justin Turner.

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Stats	Burnes	Lynn
IP	145	137 2/3
ERA	3.60	5.88
xERA	3.39	4.75
FIP	3.93	5.09
xFIP	3.98	3.93
K%	24.7%	27.4%
BB%	9.0%	8.1%

Burnes is not near the level he was in 2022 or even 2021. The K% is way down from the 35.6% and 30.5% over the past two years while the BB% is up from the 5.2% and 6.4%. Naturally, that’s in part because his Whiff percentile is down at 63 after sitting at 97 and 95 over the past two seasons. Burnes’ Chase Rate is down at the 66th percentile as well, previously sitting at 98th and 87th.

For Lynn, the Dodgers continue to tweak his pitch usage compared to what was being done in Chicago.

For the Dodgers’ starts specifically, here’s where the numbers have been.

	Aug. 1 (Athletics)	Aug. 6 (Padres)	Aug. 11 (Rockies)
4-Seam	68.8%	45.8%	51.1%
Curve	12.9%	11.5%	13.8%
Slider	7.5%	5.2%	19.1%
Cutter	4.3%	16.7%	9.6%
Sinker	3.2%	14.6%	4.3%
Change	3.2%	6.3%	2.1%

While the fastball came down and the sinker jumped above the curve, the start against the Rockies is not considerably different from the start against the Athletics as the move away from the cutter the White Sox relied on continues.

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First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. PT from Dodger Stadium on SportsNet LA.