Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers (55-39) were swept by the Philadelphia Phillies (61-32) in their last series, getting beat in every aspect of the game. That makes four consecutive losses, with the team just trying to limp to the All-Star Break. It’d be nice to catch a break after facing a dominant Phillies team, but they’ll start their final series off against the American League Cy Young favorite, Tarik Skubal. There’s not much to say here, they’ll need to play better than they did in Philadelphia to win games with this decimated pitching staff. Even though Detroit (45-49) isn’t particularly good, their pitching oftentimes does enough to get them by. Hopefully they can get some length out of James Paxton and save some bullpen arms for the final two games. This is a tough matchup, but it is what it is.
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|---|---|---|---|
| 3:40 P.M. | Detroit | ||
| DH | Ohtani (L) | 2B | Ibáñez |
| C | Smith | LF | Malloy |
| 1B | Freeman (L) | 3B | Vierling |
| RF | T. Hernández | CF | Greene (L) |
| SS | Rojas | DH | Canha |
| CF | Pages | C | Rogers |
| 2B | Taylor | SS | Báez |
| LF | Vargas | 1B | Urshela |
| 3B | K. Hernández | RF | Vilade |
| P | Paxton (L) | P | Skubal (L) |
The Dodgers have had issues offensively. They haven’t been able to hit with runners in scoring position at all lately, and most of the lineup is slumping, either in the short term or for the entirety of the season. Miguel Rojas is hitting fifth, and he’s been great this year, but it goes to show the current status of the team if Rojas is hitting fifth. Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are the sole lefties in the lineup against Skubal.
Here’s how the two offenses compare as a whole.
The Dodgers have been great as usual this year, but they haven’t looked the part in a little while. The Tigers have had issues offensively, mainly due to nearly everyone underperforming. Starting with the positives, Kerry Carpenter has been excellent for them with a 150 wRC+ in 50 games, but is currently out with a back injury. Carson Kelly has been great at catcher, with a 112 wRC+, and Riley Greene has been a star, with a 139 wRC+ earning his first All-Star nod.
Now, time for the bad. Spencer Torkelson, the number one overall pick in 2020, had just a .597 OPS and four homers through 54 games, coming off a 31 home run season. They brought in Gio Urshela on a one-year deal coming off a brief stint with the Angels that saw him hit .299, and that’s now down to .257 with a 79 wRC+. They also brought in Mark Canha, coming off a good season with the Mets and the Brewers, with a 120 wRC+ in 50 games in Milwaukee after being acquired at the deadline. He’s hit just .223 with six home runs and a 92 wRC+ this year. Outfielder Parker Meadows looked useful last year with a 94 wRC+ and above-average defense in center field, and proceeded to put up a 55 wRC+ with a 35.1% strikeout rate this year in 35 games. Former Dodger, Zach McKinstry was a solid utility player for them last year and is slashing just .183/.246/.294 this year.
This is before even mentioning the Javier Báez situation they got themselves into, who they have on a six-year $140 million contract through 2027. He’s been trending downwards for three years now, with an 88 wRC+ in 2022, a very poor 61 wRC+ in 2023, and an unplayable 32 wRC+ in 2024, accruing -0.9 fWAR in 57 games and 208 plate appearances. He missed almost an entire month with a back issue in early June, returning to the lineup on Monday. Otherwise, he’s an everyday player costing his team games. That said, I’m sure he’ll figure out how to crush the Dodgers for three games.
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Here’s how Skubal and Paxton compare among 99 starters with at least 80 innings pitched.
Paxton hasn’t been good lately, but his last start against Milwaukee was decent. It was the most recent game the Dodgers won, in which Paxton went five innings allowing two runs on four hits and two walks with three strikeouts. He threw first pitch strikes on just ten of his 21 pitches, which isn’t a great recipe for success. His xFIP of 5.18 is 98th of 99 starters with at least 80 innings pitched, ahead of only Dakota Hudson on Colorado. Wow, Hudson must be having an awful year! Yes he is, besides when he went seven innings against the Dodgers allowing just one run on four hits, resulting in one of his two wins in 17 starts. Regardless, so long as Paxton can keep pitching every fifth day, he’s logging innings the Dodgers need.
Skubal earned his tenth win of the season in his last outing, a dominant performance against the Reds. He allowed one run on three hits over seven innings, with 13 strikeouts and no walks. He’s now allowed one run or fewer in 10 of his 18 starts. The 27 year-old lefty now has a 2.37 ERA with 132 strikeouts in 110 innings. He’s looked untouchable at times, and is currently the Cy Young favorite.
Hmm, really wonder if that Statcast page is any good.
He sits in the upper-90’s on his four-seamer, touching 100 every so often. He has a four-pitch mix, going to a mid-80’s changeup against right-handed batters, a sharp upper-80’s slider he’ll throw against anyone, and an upper-90’s sinker to generate grounders. He’s tough, everything is devastating. The Dodgers will have to work hard to have success against Skubal.
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Pretty much as expected.
Also, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been playing catch from 60 feet, a good sign in his progression.
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Check out Bruce’s MLB Draft Preview as it pertains to the Dodgers. It starts tomorrow at 4 p.m. PDT.
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First pitch is at 3:40 p.m. PDT on SNLA.
