Dodgers select college talent and two rehabbers in Rounds 16-20; evaluating the 2024 draft class as a whole

Bruce Kuntz 07/16/2024 MLB Draft Leave A Comment

(Via Kansas Baseball)

To finish off the 2024 MLB Draft, the Dodgers chose three college arms, two of them rehabbing from elbow surgeries, and a couple of bats.

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With the 490th overall pick in the 16th round, the Dodgers drafted 23-year-old left-hander Evan Shaw out of Kansas. Shaw split time between the rotation and bullpen for the Jayhawks this spring but struck out 60 in 42 1/3 innings.

Shaw’s best pitch is his slider, which averages 16.2 inches of horizontal break. From the left side, it looks like the kind of pitch that will make Shaw an effective reliever against same-handed batters. His 36.4% called strike plus whiff rate on the offering was by far the best of his arsenal, and the pitch had a 38.7% whiff rate.

Standing 6-foot-4, Shaw throws out of a three-quarters release that increases the deception of his slider, making it look like it comes from behind left-handed batters. His fastball sits in the low-90s and tops out t 94.1 mph, and although the pitch reads as a four-seam, the 8.8″ of IVB indicate that it either already is more of a sinker or that it needs to become one.

Shaw has good extension down the mound and profiles most likely as a relief prospect. In two seasons at Cochise College before transferring to Kansas, Shaw had a 2.93 ERA and 184 strikeouts in 129 innings. There shouldn’t be much trouble signing the southpaw at or below the $150,000 threshold.

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With the 520th overall pick in the 17th round, the Dodgers drafted 21-year-old shortstop Jackson Nicklaus out of Oklahoma. Nicklaus had a breakout season as a junior this spring as he went from a .797 OPS in 2023 to a .963 OPS this year.

The aspect of Nicklaus’ profile that stands out most to me is his in-zone aggression alongside a lack of chase. His 71.8% in-zone swing rate, which was in the 72nd percentile, shows that he wasn’t passive in swinging at hittable pitches. On the other side, his 16.7% out-of-zone swing rate, in the 86th percentile, shows that he did a great job not expanding the zone.

Nicklaus consistently hit the ball hard and found lots of quality contact this spring. He has some whiff in his game that will have to be worked on, but there is a nice offensive base to work around. He hit 10 homers but will have to pull the ball in the air more often to make the most of his power.

Listed at 6-foot, 190 lbs, Nicklaus played second base for the Sooners but was announced as a shortstop in the draft. His profile makes the most sense for second base because he doesn’t have a cannon but it will be interesting to see if the Dodgers plan on trying him at short.

Overall, if he cuts down on his swing-and-miss, Nicklaus looks to have a well-rounded offensive profile that would fit a second base role nicely. He should be signable at around the $150,000 allotted mark.

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With the 550th overall pick in the 18th round, the Dodgers drafted 22-year-old right-hander Isaac Ayon out of Oregon. Ayon is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and missed each of the last two seasons with injury, but he has starting pitcher potential.

From 2022

Ayon’s arsenal is deep, as he had four pitches he significantly used the last time he was healthy in 2022. His fastball and sinker were used interchangeably and were in the ballpark of 17.6 inches of run, which is excellent tumble. He only averaged around 92 mph on the fastball but still threw his changeup at 86.4 mph and his slider at 82.5 mph.

His walk rate of only 6.9% is encouraging too for a pitcher who will be developed to be a starter. His stuff appears to be solid, but commanding it well would be the thing that makes him a capable starting pitcher.

This is a chance being taken on a player who hasn’t been healthy in two years. According to Jared Mack of DuckTerritory.com, Ayon had an internal brace procedure on his elbow before the 2023 season. Apparently, the surgery did not lead to a fix, and Ayon had Tommy John surgery before the 2024 season.

The Dodgers have a long track record of drafting Tommy John rehabbers and bringing them back to health. There is some extra risk with Ayon, but his potential payoff seems to be worth it. He was drafted last year as well by the Nationals in round 20 but did not sign.

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With the 580th overall pick in the 19th round, the Dodgers drafted 18-year-old outfielder Chase Williams out of Northwest Florida State Junior College. Williams, a Florida State commit, stole 29 bases and batted .379 as a switch-hitter this season.

(Via @onelove_chaselandon)

This might be a long shot in terms of signability, but Williams would be a great addition to the system. He’s fast, which serves him both on the bases and in the field, and he hits for contact from both sides of the plate. He didn’t hit for much power in JuCo but walked 31 times in 55 games.

The Dodgers will have to go over-slot to try and sign a few guys in this draft, and Williams can be added to the list, if there is enough money to go around.

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With the 610th overall pick in the 20th round, and their final selection of the year, the Dodgers drafted 21-year-old left-hander Hunter Elliott out of Ole Miss. Elliott is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery that he underwent in May 2023. His last full season was 2022.

From 2022

In his freshman year at Ole Miss, Elliott turned in a 2.70 ERA and 31.0% strikeout rate as he established himself as one of the better young southpaw prospects in the country. Unfortunately, he was shut down after his first start as a sophomore and he underwent Tommy John surgery later in the year, which held him out through his junior season this spring.

Prior to his injury, Elliott had a solid arsenal that mostly worked around his fastball. His heater averaged only 88.8 mph but had 17.9 inches of induced vertical break and 15.2 inches of run. The pitch performed well, with a whiff rate in the 86th percentile, chase rate in the 85th percentile and called strike plus whiff rate in the 94th percentile.

His breaking balls look like they could use some work, especially his slider and curveball. His changeup produced an even 50.0% whiff rate and had 21.6 inches of horizontal movement. Overall, this looks like a solid wild card for the 20th round, although Elliott may want to go back to college and try to boost his stock as a senior.

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That does it for the 2024 MLB Draft! Here is the Dodgers’ draft class in full:

They made some over-slot selections that will probably not all be signed. Harlan, Parker, Tunink, and Williams are all prep bats that may have high bonus demands. Their first rounder in Lindsey is also a prep bat, but he will likely sign for right around or just under the 23rd overall slot value of $3,676,400.

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The Dodgers have a total of $6,114,700 in bonus pool money to divvy out, which is the second lowest amount in baseball. If Lindsey signs for around his slot value, that would leave roughly $2.5 million — which is the estimated combined figure of slot values for all LA’s picks from rounds three, four and six through 10 — to be divided among the rest of the signees. The Dodgers will have to save some money in rounds three, four and six through 10 to have a chance at any of the over-slot players they drafted. Myers and Barrett, their ninth and 10th round selections, should provide some flexibility by signing for cheap as seniors.

An important factor to remember with this is that there is no defined slot value for picks from rounds 11-20. Any bonus signed for $150,000 or less in that range does not count against the total bonus pool. Anything more than that figure, however, does take from the bonus pool. This is important for the Day 3 picks like Parker, Gagnon and Williams.

Not everyone the Dodgers drafted today will end up signing. Los Angeles was pretty successful last year in terms of signing picks, and that still only meant inking 19 players out of the 22 they selected. Looking at this year’s class, it seems unlikely that they end up with all of Harlan, Tunink, Gagnon, Parker and Williams, as those players are all likely to demand high bonuses to sign.

The signing deadline for 2024 draft picks is August 1, so the Dodgers have to put the pen to paper with any prospects they are going to keep by that date.

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About Bruce Kuntz

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I'm a Long Beach State journalism student and I've been writing about the Dodgers and their farm system since I was in high school.
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