Red Sox @ Dodgers July 20, 2024: Justin Wrobleski makes his 3rd start as Dodgers look to clinch series win against Boston

The Dodgers looked dead in the water through seven innings last night, as the bats went silent against Nick Pivetta and Jarren Duran hit a solo homer to put the Dodgers in an insurmountable 1-0 deficit. They were able to surmount it, as the Sox made the grave mistake of intentionally walking Will Smith to load the bases for Freddie Freeman. One grand slam later, and the Dodgers went from looking like their struggles survived the All-Star break to “we are so back”. Today, the Dodgers look to clinch only their second series win in their last six series’ with another win over Boston.

	4:15 P.M.		Los Angeles
RF	Refsnyder	DH	Ohtani (L)
LF	Duran (L)	C	Smith
DH	O’ Neill	1B	Freeman (L)
3B	Devers (L)	LF	T. Hernández
C	Wong	RF	Pages
SS	Gonzalez	SS	Rojas
2B	Westbrook	2B	Lux (L)
1B	Smith (L)	CF	Outman (L)
CF	Rafaela	3B	Taylor
P	Bello (R)	P	Wrobleski (L)

Justin Wrobleski gets his third career start tonight, and his first two have been shockingly similar. In each start, Wrobleski’s completed five innings and allowed five hits, four runs, two walks, two homers and struck out four. The only real difference came in his last start, as one of his four runs allowed was unearned. The fifth inning has been the real struggle for Wrobleski in both starts. In his debut, he allowed a double and a homer in the fifth to close out his night. Last time out in Detroit, the Tigers led off the fifth with back-to-back solo homers. Wrobleski’s fastball has worked pretty well for him in the Majors so far. He’s thrown it 55.6 percent of the time in his two starts and has allowed a .182 batting average off it and only two extra base hits. He’s thrown a slider 18.8 percent of the time and a cutter 15 percent of the time, and allowed three and two extra base hits on those pitches respectfully.

Brayan Bello makes his 18th start of the season for Boston. He’s been a good case against using win/loss records, as he’s 10-5 on the year despite a 5.32 ERA/4.61 FIP and 1.472 WHIP, which is the sixth-worst among pitchers with over 80 innings pitched. Bello got the Opening Day start and looked the part through the first month, with a 3.04 ERA in his first five starts. He hit the IL with lat tightness and hasn’t been quite the same since. He has a 6.29 ERA in his last 12 starts and has allowed four or more runs in six of those. He had a very strange start against Oakland on July 9, where he struck out 11 but allowed five runs and nine hits in only 5 1/3 innings. His last start before the break was better, as he allowed three runs over 6 1/3 against the Royals.

Bello throws a sinker 40.2 percent of the time and has the ninth-highest ground ball rate among pitchers with over 80 innings pitched. He’s gotten a bit unlucky with his sinker, as his batting average against and slugging (.364 and .536, respectively) are a bit worse than his expected numbers (.291 and .447). He’s allowed a .328 BABIP, which is the sixth worst among pitchers with over 80 IP. There’s nothing crazy about his hard-hit or barrel numbers, but the Red Sox infield has the worst Outs Above Average in baseball (-23). Not a great combination. Bello’s also thrown a changeup 29 percent of the time, slider 28.5 percent of the time and a four-seamer 2.3 percent of the time.

James Outman starts in center tonight with Andy Pages sliding over to right and Teoscar Hernandez back in left.

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Some pitching updates regarding Clayton Kershaw and the potential debut of River Ryan.

Dave Roberts said the Dodgers are looking to make a decision as soon as today on if Clayton Kershaw’s next start will be with the big league club.

— Dodger Insider (@DodgerInsider) July 20, 2024

Kershaw threw 67 pitches yesterday for OKC and they’re hoping to make the decision today on whether he’ll continue his rehab or make his next start in the bigs. I’m rooting for another rehab start, mostly because a start next week means he’s facing the Giants or Astros and either way that’s a high chance of me being very annoyed.

Dave Roberts said River Ryan is “a possibility” to start Monday against the Giants.

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) July 20, 2024

The Dodgers don’t currently have starters listed for Monday or Tuesday against the Giants. Ryan was Bruce’s fifth-ranked prospect coming into the season. Ryan missed the first couple months of the season, but has been good since returning. In 24 1/3 innings over three different levels of the minors, he’s allowed six runs and struck out 32 batters with only eight walks. He’s maxed out at 67 pitches in a start this season and topped out at 76 pitches in a start last year.

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First pitch is scheduled for 4:15 PM PT and will be shown exclusively on FOX.