Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers (60-41) won the first game of this three game set against the Giants (48-53) by a score of 3-2 last night. They improved to 7-3 against the Giants this season, with the win last night locking in the season series win. River Ryan made his MLB debut and was great, going 5.1 innings, allowing just one unearned run on four hits and three walks. They’ve now won four in a row to start the second half, but all have been solidified by strong offensive performances in the final few innings. Last night was no exception, with an eighth inning Teoscar Hernández single being the winning run. The All-Star and Home Run Derby winning outfielder won the game by himself, with three of the Dodger’s six hits, and all three runs batted in. I’ll talk more about Teoscar in a bit. Tonight will once again feature another Dodger rookie in Landon Knack, up against the reliever turned starter, Jordan Hicks.
 |
 |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:10 P.M. | Los Angeles | ||
| DH | Soler | DH | Ohtani (L) |
| 1B | Wade Jr. (L) | C | Smith |
| CF | Ramos | 1B | Freeman (L) |
| C | Bailey (S) | RF | T. Hernández |
| 3B | Chapman | 2B | Lux (L) |
| LF | Conforto (L) | CF | Pages |
| SS | Fitzgerald | RF | Heyward (L) |
| RF | Yastrzemski (L) | 3B | Biggio (L) |
| 2B | Estrada | SS | K. Hernández |
| P | Hicks (R) | P | Knack (R) |
The Giants will run out nearly the exact same lineup as last night, with Thairo Estrada starting at second base over Brett Wisely. Tyler Fitzgerald moves up in the order due to the absolute tear he’s been on, with a home run in four consecutive games. He had one homer through 34 games this year, and now has five in 38 games. Gavin Lux started last night against the left-handed Blake Snell and looked rough, hitless in two appearances against Snell, and later struck out against Ryan Walker. Lux is slashing .148/.179/.148 against left-handed pitchers this year over 28 plate appearances, all but unplayable. However, that’s a .633 OPS and 81 wRC+ against RHP which is…playable. Kiké Hernández is at shortstop as Miguel Rojas is out, while Cavan Biggio and Jason Heyward join the lineup against the right-handed Hicks.
Teoscar has said he’s comfortable in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers should probably look into seeing if they can keep him beyond 2024. The upcoming free agent class of outfielders doesn’t look particularly enamoring, outside of Juan Soto (obviously) in 2025 and Kyle Tucker in 2026. Past those two, there don’t appear to be many real difference making outfielders available over the next couple years in free agency. Miguel Vargas, Andy Pages, and James Outman might have the potential to produce like Hernández in theory, but outside of them the only current internal option with a considerably high ceiling is Josue De Paula, just 19 years-old and in High-A. The lack of outfielders in the system means that locking up Hernández for a few years at a reasonable rate would seem wise if they aren’t targeting a trade for someone like Lane Thomas or Luis Robert Jr. It’d be an easy way to bridge the gap till young outfielders like De Paula, Kendall George, Zyhir Hope or maybe even their 2024 first rounder, Kellon Lindsey, make their way up the system.
——
Here’s how tonight’s starters compare. Knack has made just eight starts this year, but Hicks’ ranks are among 89 starting pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched.
Hicks took the loss his last time out, allowing five runs on eight hits and one walk over 4.1 innings, with just one strikeout. Through his first six starts, it looked like the Giants really could’ve made a shrewd move, with Hicks putting up a 1.59 ERA, 3.09 FIP, and a 0.91 WHIP over 34.0 innings as he transitioned from a bullpen arm to a starting pitcher. He averaged upwards of 100 MPH on his sinker last year, and was understandably down to 95.6 MPH over those first six starts. Even though his performance wavered a bit after his fantastic start, he still had an impressive 2.33 ERA, 3.58 FIP, and 1.09 WHIP through eleven starts and 58.0 innings pitched. Since then though, he’s really struggled, with a 6.08 ERA over his last eight starts and 37 innings, resulting in an 0-5 record over that stretch. He’s pitched into the sixth inning just once over those last eight outings, and gone less than five full innings four times. The average velocity on his sinker has dropped to just 93.6 MPH over this stretch, sitting at a season low of 92.2 MPH his last time out.
The Stuff+ model on FanGraphs has his sinker dropping from 116 in 2023 to 95 this year, his slider from 155 to 123, and his four-seam fastball from 136 to 78. He used the four-seamer infrequently out of the bullpen, but now can hardly use it at all, as it sits in more of a dead-zone range now that it’s lost 5 MPH. The sinker and slider have had similar issues, as they’ve both dropped off nearly 6 MPH. He’s added a splitter that he throws 21% of the time that’s actually quite effective, but his bread and butter pitches have dropped off significantly with the velocity way down.
I wouldn’t necessarily be concerned about injuries or anything, but given that his previous season high in innings was 77.2 in his 2018 rookie season, the significantly increased workload might be a bit much. He admitted he was feeling more worn down than previous seasons, so the Giants will likely need to find a way to limit his workload. He last pitched twelve days ago due to the All-Star break, so they’re hoping he’s a bit rejuvenated. He faced the Dodgers back in the middle of May, and went five innings allowing two runs on seven hits with four strikeouts.
Knack didn’t factor into the decision in his last outing against the Phillies, allowing three runs on six hits and a walk over 4.1 innings with five strikeouts. He’s now had his two worst appearances of the year in back to back outings, going 4.1 innings both times, allowing the three runs against the Phillies, and four against the Diamondbacks. However, there might be some good signs to accompany the bad performances. Over his first five starts, he had just 18 strikeouts to eight walks over 25.2 innings pitched, resulting in a 17.6% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate, both worse than a league-average starting pitcher. His previous three outings have been different, recording 18 strikeouts in just 13.1 innings, accompanied by just two walks, good for a 31.6% strikeout rate and 3.5% walk rate. He’ll probably settle somewhere in between, but generating strikeouts and whiffs at or above a league-average rate does wonders for his long term projection.
His four-seam usage was down to a season low 32.1% in his last outing, while his curveball usage was at a season high 32.1%, both being thrown 15 times against the Phillies. Maybe they just crush fastballs, but it was interesting to see him go to the curve so frequently, when he’s throwing it just 13.1% of the time on the year. He’s yet to give up a hit on the curve, so maybe there’s something there. His curveball is averaging 78.6 MPH on the year, and drops 60.4 inches on average, which is an above-average amount of drop for curves thrown at similar velocities. A lot goes into that, as someone like Tyler Glasnow is averaging just 50.8 inches of drop on his curve, but he throws it over 5 MPH faster, and releases the ball nearly two feet closer to home. Regardless, the curve could be an avenue to more success, and he’ll look to get back on track tonight. With James Paxton being either cut or traded, Knack performing well (while maybe unspectacular) is very helpful to this rotation.
——
Good story from Fabian Ardaya here on Walker Buehler. Hope he can get right.
——
Mookie Betts getting healthy is essential if the Dodgers want to be a force in October. Looks like everything is progressing well.
——
First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. on SNLA and MLB Network.
