Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers (62-44) lost a rough one last night against the Houston Astros (55-49) by a score of 7-6 via an Alex Bregman walk-off homer. Justin Wrobleski was great through five innings, but the combination of Evan Phillips, Daniel Hudson, and Blake Treinen coughed up five earned runs while accruing three outs. Anthony Banda doesn’t get lumped in there because he was great. The team put up six runs while rolling out their weakest lineup of the season, but teams that are playing poorly will find ways to lose games. River Ryan will make his second career start as the Dodgers try to win a game in Houston. The rookie right-hander Spencer Arrighetti will make his 19th start of the year for the Astros.
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| 11:10 A.M. | Houston | ||
| DH | Ohtani (L) | 2B | Altuve |
| LF | T. Hernández | 3B | Bregman |
| 2B | Lux (L) | LF | Alvarez (L) |
| RF | Heyward (L) | DH | Diaz |
| 3B | K. Hernández | SS | Peña |
| 1B | Biggio (L) | 1B | Singleton (L) |
| CF | Outman (L) | CF | Meyers |
| SS | Barnes | C | Caratini (S) |
| SS | Ahmed | RF | Loperfido (L) |
| P | Ryan (R) | P | Arrighetti (R) |
The Astros run out nearly an identical lineup as to yesterday. They struck out just five times in 37 plate appearances last night, after striking out just five times in 36 plate appearances in the first game. That’s a total of ten strikeouts in 73 plate appearances through the first two games of this series, a 13.7% strikeout rate. Framber Valdez struck out ten through six innings in the first game alone. The Dodgers struck out 15 times in the first game and 16 times yesterday. They’ve struck out 29 times in 74 plate appearances, a 39.2% rate. Really bad.
Will Smith has been scuffling recently. Since his walk-off single against the Red Sox last Saturday, he’s yet to record a hit, in a 0-18 skid. Gavin Lux is playing very well, slashing .421/.463/.763, over his last 13 games and 41 plate appearances. Dating all the way back to the beginning of June, he’s slashing .261/.313/.403, for a 104 wRC+. Not talking about an amazing hitter, but for the better part of two months he’s been league-average or better while playing great defense at second base. James Outman has been up and down a couple times in July, but in the month he’s hitting .150 with just three singles in 21 plate appearances and eleven strikeouts. Andy Pages hasn’t hit a home run since June 18. Jason Heyward has been hurt a couple times, but overall has just six hits in 59 plate appearances since his pinch-hit grand slam in Colorado towards the end of June. Miguel Vargas has two hits in 31 plate appearances since his pinch-hit homer against the Brewers on July 6.
They could really use an impact bat, and or a utility/versatile player that can hit at a league-average clip. Dustin outlined some possible bats the Dodgers could look at, if you missed it. Luis Robert Jr. would shore up center field, as would someone like Matt Vierling or Tommy Edman to an extent. Vierling could also cover third/second base in the infield, as could Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Paul DeJong, or Gio Urshela. The team needs some help, so hopefully the front office makes the deals to provide reinforcements.
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Here’s how the two starters matchup. Arrighetti’s ranks are among 109 pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched.
Arrighetti pitched to a 4.64 ERA in Triple-A over 64.0 innings in 2023, and the team likely wanted to see if he could build upon that this season, but their injuries necessitated his promotion. He allowed four runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out three over six innings in his last outing against Oakland. He avoided dishing out multiple free passes for the first time in his last four outings. The 24 year-old right-hander has been decent lately, allowing four or more runs in just three of his nine outings since the start of June. He had a 6.93 ERA over his first eight starts, but seemed to get everything to a manageable point after that. He has a 4.66 ERA, 4.69 FIP, and a 1.43 WHIP over his last ten starts.
He’s in the 96th percentile in extension, which is probably how he achieves an above-average strikeout rate despite none of his pitches jumping off the charts. He throws five pitches, starting with a mid-90’s four-seamer. He goes to an upper-70’s curveball primarily against lefties, an upper-80’s cutter that he’ll throw to both lefties and righties, a low-80’s sweeper almost entirely to right-handed batters, and a mid-80’s changeup against lefties.
Ryan allowed just one unearned run on four hits and three walks while striking out two over 5.1 innings in his MLB debut against the Giants. He threw just 42 of 73 pitches for strikes however, and he’ll look to command his stuff a bit better today.
Stuff+ on FanGraphs loved Ryan’s debut, grading five of his six pitches favorably. His sinker that he threw just eight times graded out at 81, compared to the league-average of 89. His four-seamer graded out at 110, with the league-average at 96. That 110 grade would be 13th among qualified starters, sandwiched between Tarik Skubal (112), and Cole Ragans (108). His 136 Stuff+ mark on his slider puts it well above the league-average mark of 115, sitting at eighth among starters just behind Garrett Crochet (138). It also liked his curveball at 114, above the average mark of 105, seventh among qualified starters, just behind Sonny Gray (116), and ahead of Zack Wheeler (112). It also even loves his cutter at 107, which would be sixth among qualified starters. He’s got great shape and movement, but a lot of the grades here come from how hard he throws his off-speed and breaking stuff. His slider sat at 90 mph, which would be third in baseball just trailing his teammate, Tyler Glasnow (90.1). His curveball averaged 83.2, once again just behind Glasnow (83.8). His cutter was 94.0, just behind Corbin Burnes (95.4).
Velocity and stuff models go hand in hand, as the harder you throw the better your stuff grades out and performs generally. Yohan Ramírez had great stuff, with his slider at 149 Stuff+, but obviously it just doesn’t always correlate to success. It’s just a fantastic starting point, and hopefully Ryan will be able to leverage his stuff to success today against Houston. The team needs to make moves, but it feels like Ryan might be off the table. He has front of the rotation type stuff, and has the potential to contribute in October.
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Mookie Betts returning would obviously be a monumental boost. Max Muncy is *probably* going to be back this year, but the team is likely exploring multiple options to cover third base in the case that he can’t return.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is progressing well to rejoin the team towards the end of August.
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Bad.
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First pitch is at 11:10 a.m. PDT on SNLA.
