Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers (81-54) won a real nail-biter last night in the series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks (76-59) by a score of 10-9. Clayton Kershaw left the game with a toe issue after allowing three earned runs over just one inning, and up against Zac Gallen it seemed unlikely the Dodgers would be able to come out with a win. However, the offense showed some grit as did the bullpen, and some gutsy performances left an overworked Anthony Banda just enough breathing room to finish the game. Seven relievers pitched last night, and thus a good amount of the bullpen will be entirely unavailable tonight. Ben Casparius and Brent Honeywell Jr. are with the team and likely to log some innings unless Gavin Stone can twirl a gem. It would be fantastic if he did, as the team is essentially playing with house money after yesterday’s win. Stone is up against Arizona’s generally reliable Merrill Kelly, making just his fourth start back from the injured list.
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| 5:10 P.M. | Phoenix | ||
| DH | Ohtani (L) | RF | Carroll (L) |
| RF | Betts | CF | McCarthy (L) |
| 1B | Freeman (L) | DH | Pederson (L) |
| LF | T. Hernández | LF | Gurriel Jr. |
| C | Smith | 1B | Smith (L) |
| 2B | Lux (L) | C | Del Castillo (L) |
| 3B | Muncy (L) | 3B | Suárez |
| SS | Rojas | 2B | Guillorme (L) |
| CF | Kiermaier (L) | SS | Perdomo (S) |
| P | Stone (R) | P | Kelly (R) |
The Diamondbacks have quite the scary offense, even with Ketel Marte out. The league-average OPS is .715 this season, and with the lineup the Diamondbacks are rolling out tonight, they have just one player below that mark in Luis Guillorme (.580) who is just playing in the absence of Marte. The only below average regular on their team is Kevin Newman (.682 OPS) who is +4 Outs Above Average at shortstop and second base. This whole lineup can hit to some extent as they showed last night.
The Dodgers will keep the lineup pretty similar to last night with a few small tweaks. Will Smith moves up to the fifth spot in the order after a three-run homer last night and showing signs of life in general with his quality of contact. Tommy Edman will have the day off as Kevin Kiermaier will start in center field.
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Here’s how Kelly and Stone compare.
Kelly has just 40.2 innings pitched this season after missing almost four months with a right shoulder strain that sidelined him in the middle of April. He’s made just three starts since returning from injury on August 11, and hasn’t looked like himself yet, with a 6.75 ERA, 5.73 FIP, and a 1.56 WHIP over 16.0 innings with just eleven strikeouts to seven walks. His last time out he allowed four runs on seven hits with three walks over six innings and earned his third win of the season due to Arizona’s recent offensive tear. Prior to that outing he allowed six earned runs on eight hits and two walks over five innings, yet received no decision once again thanks to Arizona’s offense.
All in all however, he’s having a season not too dissimilar from his past two strong campaigns. He had a 3.37 ERA, 3.65 FIP, and a 1.14 WHIP over 200.1 innings in 2022, and a 3.29 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and a 1.19 WHIP in 177.2 innings last season. Everything is just slightly worse this year, albeit over just those 40.2 innings pitched. He had an above-average strikeout rate last year at 25.9%, with 187 strikeouts in those 177.2 innings, but the strikeouts have dropped off significantly this season at just a 19.6% rate, slightly below league-average with just 32 in 40.2 innings. He’s got a full six-pitch mix, with a cutter, sinker, and four-seamer all in the low-90’s, a mid-80’s slider he throws against right-handed batters, a low-80’s curveball he throws to lefties, and an upper-80’s changeup that he’ll throw to both. He’s thrown the cutter most often this season at a 25.7% rate, up from 18.2% last year, the only issue is that the results on it this year have been quite poor. The cutter has allowed a .347 wOBA in pair with a .442 xwOBA (expected wOBA), and just for a comparison – league-average wOBA is .311 and Ohtani’s xwOBA this year is .439. It seems like he probably needs to dial the cutter usage back or locate it better or something, because it hasn’t been great this year. Everything else looks pretty comparable to the last two seasons, so maybe he’ll turn things around soon.
Stone allowed just one run on three hits and two walks with seven strikeouts over seven innings against the Rays his last time out. He had a brutal month of July, but has really seemed to recollect himself over his last three outings, with a 0.95 ERA, 2.91 FIP, and a 0.63 WHIP over 19.0 innings, with 23 strikeouts to four walks. In my eyes, seeing Stone being able to generate strikeouts at an above-average rate is very encouraging toward future success. He has 112 strikeouts to 36 walks over 135.1 innings this year, paired with a great 3.33 ERA, but generating just a bit more swing-and-miss raises his ceiling significantly. He’s been very reliable for the Dodgers this year outside of July, and they need another strong outing from him tonight.
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Kershaw will go on the injured list as expected. Obviously everyone wants him to be on the postseason roster, but based on his performance this year and the injury, it’s possible it doesn’t happen.
Justin Wrobleski is back and will start tomorrow.
Kelly has been struggling and the team needed a way to get Honeywell activated.
Who knows if it’ll happen, but generally I trust the player talking about their own body. Whatever seed the Dodgers end up with, whoever the opponent is, Tyler Glasnow taking the mound for the first game is the goal.
The bullpen would benefit greatly from having a healthy and effective Brusdar Graterol back.
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This means that essentially every reliever is unavailable besides Casparius and Honeywell.
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Ohtani’s quest for 50/50 continues, and looks increasingly likely as he needs just seven of each with a month left to play.
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First pitch is at 5:10 PT on SNLA.
