Rockies @ Dodgers September 21, 2024: Walker Buehler starts on the final day of Summer

The Dodgers (92-62) won the opening game of this three game series against the Colorado Rockies (59-95) by a score of 6-4 in a relatively close one. The Rockies got off to a quick start with a 2-0 lead, but that was quickly nullified by an Andy Pages solo home run, and yet another Shohei Ohtani homer, number 52 on the year. Pitching wise, the Dodgers went with a full bullpen game instead of going to Ben Casparius for a reason I don’t fully understand. Maybe they figured the matchup with Kyle Freeland was going to be the more difficult of the first two games, and they wanted to lock in the first win and hope Walker Buehler and Casparius can combine for seven or eight innings tonight. We’ll see what they do on that front, but Buehler will start tonight against the right-handed Cal Quantrill.

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7:10 PM Los Angeles
DH Blackmon (L) DH Ohtani (L)
SS Tovar RF Betts
3B McMahon (L) 1B Freeman (L)
1B Toglia (S) LF T. Hernández
2B Rodgers CF Edman (S)
CF Hilliard (L) 3B Muncy (L)
LF Jones (L) 2B Lux (L)
RF Cave (L) SS Rojas
C Stallings C Feduccia (L)
P Quantrill (R) P Buehler (R)

Miguel Rojas will be back in the lineup tonight after a day off to rest his leg that had been bothering him. Tommy Edman moves back out to center field, while Gavin Lux is at second base against the right-handed Quantrill. Hunter Feduccia will be behind the plate as Will Smith rests. The team needs Smith healthy and fresh for the San Diego series that starts Tuesday, but more importantly for the postseason.  

Max Muncy added a double last night and has been great since his return from injury on August 19. Since his return, he’s slashing .269/.414/.590, good for a 175 wRC+ over 99 plate appearances. He has 2.3 fWAR in 67 games, and was on pace for another 30 home run, 100 RBI season. Pages continued to perform well, adding a single and a home run in his start last night. He’s slashing .357/.396/.520 against left-handed pitchers this year, and while that’s inflated by a .444 BABIP, he clearly sees them well. This is a great time for him to get things going and his role on the postseason roster looks to be very well defined. He hits lefties and is good in the corner outfield positions, simple as that. He probably doesn’t need to face right-handed pitching much, so he should start in right field against LHP with Mookie Betts at second base (opinion). 

Charlie Blackmon, Sam Hilliard, and Michael Toglia all homered in last night’s game and will once again be in the lineup. The few changes include Nolan Jones in left field over Jordan Beck, while Jacob Stallings will start over Hunter Goodman. Jones has had an awful year after a breakout 2023 season in which he had 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in just 106 games, accruing 3.8 fWAR. Amidst various injuries, he has three homers and five stolen bases in 67 games this year, with a 63 wRC+ and 84 strikeouts to just 48 hits. He’ll look to finish decently and reset for 2025. Stallings has been great this year, and one of the Rockies’ lone bright spots. He has a 112 wRC+ and .807 OPS over 77 games and 267 plate appearances, which will likely result in him opting out after the season. Colorado plays the Dodgers five more times over the remaining eight games, and they need to go 4-4 to avoid their second consecutive 100-loss season.

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Here’s how Quantrill and Buehler compare.

Buehler was solid his last time out despite handing out five free passes to the Braves. He allowed just one earned runs on three hits with five strikeouts over six innings. There was some iffy defense behind him and he added traffic on the bases with his walks, but he managed to get out of those jams, an encouraging sign. He looked more confident and sure of himself in that outing (once again, opinion), and it resulted in his third quality start of the year.

It’s looking more and more likely that he will have a spot in the postseason rotation, so another good outing would be great for his confidence and form. His performance hasn’t been great as a whole, but with Tyler Glasnow out for the remainder of the year, Gavin Stone still yet to pick up a ball, and Clayton Kershaw still not pain free, it looks like Buehler and Landon Knack are slated to be the third and fourth starters. Certainly not ideal, but Knack looked fantastic his last time out, and Buehler did have a decent outing in Atlanta. 

Quantrill returned from right triceps inflammation his last time out in a tough outing against the Cubs. He walked a career high six batters, allowing two runs on four hits and those six walks over 2.1 innings. He has six appearances against the Dodgers over his career with a 7.43 ERA, and has made two starts against them this year with a 6.75 ERA, leaving plenty of room for improvement. Unfortunately he hasn’t been trending in the right direction, with a 6.46 ERA and 6.07 FIP over his last 61.1 innings pitched, with 49 strikeouts to 33 walks. It’s just generally not great to generate strikeouts at a below league-average rate, walk batters at an above-average rate, and give up home runs at an above-average rate. He has a couple outings left, both likely coming against the Dodgers which is a tough ask, but he’ll look to end his season on a positive note.

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I guess Tony Gonsolin will be able to get into one big league game prior to the postseason. It seems unlikely he ends up on the postseason roster somehow, but stranger things have happened.

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Going into tonight’s game, the Dodgers have a four game lead over the second place San Diego Padres (88-66), a four game lead on the Milwaukee Brewers (88-66), and a half game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies (92-63).

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First pitch is at 6:10 PT on SNLA.

About Allan Yamashige

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Just a guy living in Southern California, having a good time writing about baseball. Hated baseball practice as a kid, but writing about it rules. Thanks for reading!