Padres @ Dodgers September 26, 2024: Buehler and the Dodgers get their first shot at clinching the NL West

The Dodgers survived a back-and-forth game last night in large part due to their bullpen, which allowed three walks and no hits over four shutout innings. Shohei Ohtani came up with a pair of clutch RBIs, and the Dodgers find themselves on the verge of clinching their 11th NL West title in the last 12 years. The magic number is down to two, meaning a win tonight over the Padres gets the job done at home. A loss isn’t the end of the world, as they head to Colorado for three while the Padres travel to Arizona to face a team fighting for their own playoff lives. Any combination of two wins/Padre losses also clinches the West for the Dodgers, but it would definitely be nice to not have to stress-watch Coors games and see the team celebrate at home.

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7:10 P.M. Los Angeles
1B Arraez (L) DH Ohtani (L)
RF Tatis Jr. RF Betts
LF Profar (S) 1B Freeman (L)
3B Machado LF T. Hernández
CF Merrill (L) 3B Muncy (L)
SS Bogaerts C Smith
2B Cronenworth (L) SS Edman (S)
DH Peralta (L) 2B Lux (L)
C Higashioka CF Pages
P Musgrove (R) P Buehler (R)

Walker Buehler gets the ball tonight. The Dodgers are 8-7 when Buehler starts despite his own record of 1-6. They took the loss in his start on Saturday against the Rockies, but Buehler did battle a bit after a rough start to the game. He started the game by allowing a double and walk before throwing a wild pitch to move both runners into scoring position. He managed to work around an error and allowed only one run to score, but he allowed two in the second on a single, hit batsman and two-run double. It looked like it was gonna be another short outing for a Dodger starter, but Buehler buckled down and faced one over the minimum in the next three innings to get into the sixth. The one over the minimum did happen to be a solo homer for a fourth earned run, but he got an out in the sixth before being lifted for Alex Vesia, who stranded a single to close the line on Buehler. He did set a new season-high with nine strikeouts and only walked one, so it was good to see him settle down a bit after a rocky (no pun intended for once) first couple innings. This will be Buehler’s second look at the Padres this season. Buehler’s second start of the season came in San Diego back in May and it didn’t go well. Buehler allowed a pair of homers in the first and loaded the bases with one out in the fourth before being pulled. Ryan Yarbrough allowed one of those runs to score, but kept the damage to a minimum to give Buehler three earned runs over 3 1/3 innings. He needed 77 pitches to get those 10 outs. Buehler does have a reputation as a big game pitcher, and even though most of that came from a time before Covid was a thing, this does qualify as a big game.

Opposing Buehler will be Joe Musgrove, who’s having his worst season as a Padre. He hasn’t posted an ERA above 3.20 as a Padre, but currently has a 3.95 in 18 starts. He dealt with some elbow inflammation and missed two and a half months this season, but has been much better since returning. Musgrove finished April with a 6.94 ERA in seven starts and started turning it around in May, but was limited to three starts before being shut down. He returned in August and has been much better, allowing 10 runs and 31 hits in 44 innings over eight starts. Granted, he hasn’t exactly faced a murderers’ row in that time (SF twice, Mets, Tigers, Cardinals, Rockies, Pirates and most recently the White Sox). Six of those 10 runs came in one game against the Giants, but three of his last four outings have been scoreless. He’s struck out seven or more in each of his four September starts and has still yet to eclipse 100 pitches in a start in 2024. The Dodgers tagged Musgrove in the second game in Seoul, as they put up five runs and seven hits in only 2 2/3 innings en route to a 15-11 win.

Musgrove throws four different pitches 20 percent or higher. His most-used pitch is his fastball at 24.5 percent. He’s also thrown a curve 22.4 percent, cutter 20.4 percent and a a sweeper 20 percent of the time this season. Each of those pitches generate a good amount of swing and miss, with the lowest whiff rate of those four at 23.5 percent on his fastball. When he does get hit, it tends to be loud contact. Per Fangraphs, his 34.5 percent hard-hit rate is the 21st-highest among pitchers with 90 or more innings and his 10.9 percent soft-hit rate is the third-worst.

Miguel Rojas is out of the lineup as expected after being removed from the game last night. Tommy Edman starts at short and Andy Pages draws the start in center. For the Padres, Luis Arraez gets his first start in the field of the series at first. David Peralta serves as the DH, and Kyle Higashioka‘s behind the plate.

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Some unfortunate injury news, as Brusdar Graterol is back on the IL. Ben Casparius takes his spot for now. Austin Barnes returns from his second toe injury in as many months, as Hunter Feduccia got optioned.

Graterol’s shoulder caused him to miss most of the season, and it was bothering him again on Tuesday. They’re calling it a week-to-week injury, so he may still be able to return in the playoffs. Anthony Banda still hasn’t been activated despite reports that he was possibly going to be activated on Tuesday. Might be that they want Casparius up for length either today if Buehler struggles or for tomorrow’s bullpen game in Colorado.

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Some more injury updates regarding Rojas and Clayton Kershaw.

Rojas had an MRI and received an injection for his adductor strain. They’re still hopeful to have him play before the season ends. Kershaw’s recovery has stalled and they’re playing it safe to make sure he doesn’t mess anything else up by overcompensating for his injured toe. They’re still hopeful he returns in the postseason, but it’ll all depend on the health of his toe.

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First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM PT and will be shown on SportsNet LA.

About Alex Campos

I've been writing about the Dodgers since I graduated from Long Beach State, where I covered the Dirtbags in my senior year. I'm either very good or very bad at puns.