Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
After a promising start to the NLDS with a win in Game 1, the Dodgers find themselves in an all too familiar position, with their backs against the wall on the road. Chad wrote the recap for last night’s game, and aptly named it “Early defensive meltdown costs Dodgers pivotal game“. That’s about all you need to know.
The Dodgers will do two noteworthy things tonight, the first being not starting any injured players. Both Miguel Rojas and Freddie Freeman will be on the bench, with the latter presumably available to pinch-hit. The other will be deciding to go with a bullpen game over starting Landon Knack. The Padres have scored 12 of their 21 runs within the first two innings, so any way to avoid that would be much appreciated. The Padres will start Dylan Cease on short rest after starting Game 1 on Saturday. It will be the first time in his professional career over 159 career starts, that he starts on short rest.
Separately, earlier today Dustin wrote about baseball’s velocity issues as a whole and how it has specifically affected the Dodgers this season. The Dodgers would be in a very different position right now if they had Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, or maybe even River Ryan.
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|---|---|---|---|
| 6:08 P.M. | San Diego | ||
| DH | Ohtani (L) | 1B | Arraez (L) |
| RF | Betts | RF | Tatis Jr. |
| LF | T. Hernández | LF | Profar (S) |
| 1B | Muncy (L) | 3B | Machado |
| C | Smith | CF | Merrill (L) |
| SS | Edman (S) | SS | Bogaerts |
| 2B | Lux (L) | DH | Peralta (L) |
| 3B | K. Hernández | 2B | Cronenworth (L) |
| CF | Taylor | C | Higashioka |
| P | Brasier (R) | P | Cease (R) |
The Dodgers really mix things up with Rojas and Freeman both sitting. Chris Taylor is in center field with Tommy Edman sliding to shortstop. I figured it would’ve been Andy Pages, but maybe they prefer the potential pinch-hit AB Pages can provide? Unsure of the reasoning there honestly. Kiké Hernández will be at third base while Max Muncy slides over to first base in Freeman’s absence. Freeman missing this game eliminated this possibility whatsoever, but I would’ve started Kiké at third over Muncy anyways. Muncy is 2-12 with a garbage-time home run in Game 2, with five strikeouts and no walks. Will Smith has walked four times in three games, but is still yet to record a hit, which is not what you want out of your #5 hitter. The Dodgers’ offense has gone quiet for sustained stretches at times (one hit over the final six innings last night), and Smith and Muncy have unfortunately been significant parts of those struggles.
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When it comes to the starting pitching, it’s been quite ugly for the Dodgers. The Padres have scored 21 runs this series, 15 of those being off of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler (undeservedly so). Hence, a bullpen game might be their best chance at limiting San Diego’s offense, especially early in the game. The rookie Edgardo Henriquez gave up three earned runs in Game 2 in what was already a blowout. Michael Grove gave up one run but has been replaced by Ben Casparius, and Ryan Brasier is responsible for two runs. Everyone should be available today outside of the three starting pitchers. Knack and Casparius are available for bulk innings, but it seems as if the Dodgers might want to stay away from the rookies if they can.
Cease didn’t have a good outing his last time out against the Dodgers in Game 1, allowing five earned runs on six hits and two walks over 3.1 innings. Freeman had two hits against Cease, while Mookie Betts, Gavin Lux, Rojas, and Edman singled, while Shohei Ohtani added a three-run home run.
Here’s the updated stats for everyone against Cease (not formatted for tonight’s lineup):
| Player | PA | H | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 19 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | .294 | .368 | .882 | 1.251 |
| Mookie Betts | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .200 | .273 | .200 | .472 |
| Freddie Freeman | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .455 | .455 | .545 | 1.000 |
| T. Hernández | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .077 | .077 | .077 | .154 |
| Max Muncy | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .143 | .250 | .286 | .536 |
| Will Smith | 13 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | .100 | .308 | .100 | .408 |
| Gavin Lux | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .571 | .667 | .714 | 1.381 |
| Tommy Edman | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .500 | .500 | .750 | 1.250 |
| Miguel Rojas | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .200 | .333 | .200 | .533 |
| Bench | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| K. Hernández | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .417 | .417 | .833 | 1.250 |
| Chris Taylor | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .000 | .500 | .000 | .500 |
| Andy Pages | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Austin Barnes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .500 | .000 | .500 |
Cease will be pitching on three days rest like I mentioned earlier, coming off of that 3.1 inning outing in which he threw 80 pitches. The pitch count was relatively low considering he’s routinely at or above 100, but he was laboring out there. Short rest is known to negatively impact nearly every starting pitcher over a large enough sample size. It’s hard to say how it’ll affect Cease, but considering it’s something he’s never done over the course of his whole career, it is a bit of a risk. San Diego has a game in hand so they can afford to take that risk, especially so with Yu Darvish lined up for a potential Game 5 anyways. Nothing has changed since I wrote the Game 1 thread about Cease, so I’ll just copy what I wrote prior to that start.
“Cease is coming off a decent start against none other than the Dodgers in his 33rd and final regular season start. He allowed three runs on five hits and three walks over five innings with four strikeouts. He generated 20 whiffs, but was unable to turn that into strikeouts and ended up laboring a bit. If anything, the Dodgers left some runs out on the bases that could’ve scored easily. They scored one run in the first inning, but if a Will Smith fly-ball went five feet further it would’ve been a 3-0 start. Ohtani knocked in one run on a 117 MPH double off the right field wall that would’ve been a three run homer if he had hit if five feet higher. The Dodgers would be more than happy to have a repeat performance tonight. Despite 224 strikeouts this season, he’s had a bit of an issue generating as many down the stretch. He had just four strikeouts in the start against the Dodgers, which was the fourth time in his last six starts that he failed to strikeout at least five batters. He was excellent in the middle part of the season, but has a 3.66 ERA over his final nine starts and 51.2 innings, with just 48 strikeouts to 22 walks. He’s struggled with walks at times, walking three or more batters in half of his final 14 starts.”
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This likely means avoiding Knack and Casparius.
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First pitch is at 6:08 PT on FS1.
