Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
With their backs up against the wall and facing elimination, the Dodgers beat San Diego decisively by a score of 8-0 to even up the series at two a piece, and force a winner-take-all Game 5. Chad’s recap for Game 4 covered it quite well, “Mookie Betts sparks offense as bullpen comes up huge to extend series”. Everyone did their jobs and the result was a rout. They just need to do it again.
This game will be tough as the Padres will send out Yu Darvish, coming off a fantastic outing in Game 2. He’s been a thorn in the Dodgers’ side for years now, making this a tight matchup out of the gates. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will get the nod as the Game 5 starter for the Dodgers, looking to put together a strong performance and give the offense time to take the lead. Game 5 was a full bullpen game, but Ryan Brasier, Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Blake Treinen were the guys called upon to face the heart of the Padres’ order – Jurickson Profar, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado. I expect a similar game plan today.
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|---|---|---|---|
| 5:08 P.M. | Los Angeles | ||
| DH | Ohtani (L) | 1B | Arraez (L) |
| RF | Betts | RF | Tatis Jr. |
| 1B | Freeman (L) | LF | Profar (S) |
| LF | T. Hernández | 3B | Machado |
| 3B | Muncy (L) | CF | Merrill (L) |
| C | Smith | SS | Bogaerts |
| CF | K. Hernández | DH | Peralta (L) |
| 2B | Lux (L) | 2B | Cronenworth (L) |
| SS | Edman (S) | C | Higashioka |
| P | Yamamoto (R) | P | Darvish (R) |
Mookie has a 1.056 OPS this series, including two first-inning home runs, and what would’ve been three if Dodger fans attempted to make Profar’s robbery difficult at all. Gavin Lux added a home run off a lefty in his last outing, bringing his NLDS OPS up to .886, while Teoscar Hernández continues to be a staple in the order, with a .945 OPS.
Every starter notched a hit in Game 4 outside of Chris Taylor who was 0-4 with four strikeouts. I feel bad for him, but he can’t see the field outside of an emergency in Game 5. Kiké had two hits, but had a hard-hit lineout as well, something just clicks for him in the postseason it seems. Max Muncy added a double and had a home run brought back by Jackson Merrill. Everyone seems to be seeing the ball well right now, and the offense and defense clicked with no Miguel Rojas or Freddie Freeman. Rojas will once again be unavailable, but I would *consider* sitting Freddie unless his ankle is somehow much improved. In an elimination game, any defensive miscue could end your season and it’s been stated and clear to the eye that Freeman is limited over at first base. He’s hit Darvish well in his career which nobody else on the team can say, so it’s a tough call.
When it comes to San Diego, I think aside from Yamamoto, the general idea is to prevent the top of the order from seeing anyone more than once. If Yamamoto can effectively get through the order twice, however many innings that may be, I’d be surprised if he gets to face the top of the lineup a third time. They can bridge the gap to the higher leverage arms with two or three innings from Jack Flaherty if need be, or they can repeat what they did in Game 4 with heavy bullpen usage. Save Alex Vesia and to an extent, Anthony Banda, for high-leverage left-on-left situations, and get the matchups you like with your other high-leverage arms.
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I’ll paste what I wrote about Yamamoto prior to his Game 1 start, with an extra paragraph or two after that.
“Yamamoto has faced the Padres twice this season, the first coming on March 21 in Seoul, his MLB debut. It was also his worst outing of the year, allowing five earned runs on four hits and one walk over one inning. That was a weird series that also saw Yu Darvish, Michael King, and Joe Musgrove have some of their worst outings of the year. He was much better his second time facing them, coming April 12 in his fourth career start. He went five innings allowing three earned runs on four hits and a walk with six strikeouts. Overall in a limited sample size, Manny Machado has seen him well, as has Fernando Tatis Jr. and Elias Díaz (on the Rockies).
Outside of that very rough outing in Korea, Yamamoto has largely been excellent in his other 17 starts and 89.0 innings pitched. After that first outing, he has a 2.53 ERA, 2.58 FIP, and a 1.07 WHIP, with 103 strikeouts to just 21 walks. Everything indicates that he’s already a top-20 starter in baseball with good health. His last time out he allowed two runs on four hits over five innings with six strikeouts in Coors Field. He had some bad calls go against him early, leading to a run in the first inning, but settled in nicely after that. He allowed a solo home run in the bottom of the third, just his seventh homer allowed this season. He has a 3.38 ERA, and 2.29 FIP since returning from the Injured List on September 10, with 21 strikeouts to five walks in 16.0 innings. He threw 71 pitches his last time out, after 79 and 72 in his outings prior, so I don’t think it’s likely he’ll be out for 100 pitches at this point, especially with a fully rested bullpen. Hopefully he’s sharp and can provide five or more strong innings.”
Accounting for his Game 1 outing, things have changed slightly. He had a rough go of it, allowing five earned runs on five hits and two walks over three innings. The start featured poor command and the inability to get batters out with two strikes. Dave Roberts mentioned that he was tipping his pitches which would make sense as to why the Padres wouldn’t chase any of his pitches. Unfortunately, part of that was also due to the fact that he wasn’t around the zone enough to warrant any chases.
He’s made 18 starts this year, 19 including the postseason and three against the Padres. His first outing was his worst start of the year, and while his start in April was much improved, it was still just mediocre. Including everything, he’s thrown nine total innings against the Padres over three outings, and has allowed 13 earned runs on 13 hits, with four walks to nine strikeouts and three home runs allowed. He threw just 60 pitches in Game 1, but is probably close to fully stretched out anyways. I doubt they let his pitch count even get all that high with everyone in the pen available, but it depends how the game is going.
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Darvish has notoriously pitched well against the Dodgers, and the way the batters have performed against him seems about right.
| Player | PA | H | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .125 | .125 | .125 | .250 |
| Mookie Betts | 47 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 9 | .186 | .271 | .349 | .620 |
| Freddie Freeman | 44 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 10 | .250 | .318 | .550 | .868 |
| T. Hernández | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .167 | .231 | .167 | .397 |
| Max Muncy | 42 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 14 | .244 | .262 | .415 | .677 |
| Will Smith | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | .194 | .286 | .290 | .576 |
| Gavin Lux | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | .235 | .333 | .294 | .627 |
| Tommy Edman | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| K. Hernández | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .182 | .250 | .364 | .614 |
| Bench | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Miguel Rojas | 20 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .118 | .250 | .118 | .368 |
| Chris Taylor | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | .000 | .235 | .000 | .235 |
| Andy Pages | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .000 | .333 | .000 | .333 |
| Austin Barnes | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | .111 | .273 | .444 | .717 |
As a whole, but excluding postseason starts, since joining the Padres in 2021, Darvish has a 2.35 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a 3.17 FIP against the Dodgers over 84.1 innings pitched and 14 starts. Dodgers’ batters have slashed just .170/.240/.314 against him. It’s strange because Darvish is absolutely a good pitcher, but he’s no longer the 26 year-old version of himself that came second in the 2013 Cy Young voting. Against everyone else since 2021, he has a 4.04 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and a 3.86 FIP over 494.2 innings pitched. Opposing batters are slashing .234/.288/.401 against him. The Dodgers have consistently had a top five offense in baseball over the last four seasons, so it’s just hard to make sense of.
Here’s all his starts against the Dodgers as a member of the Padres. The October 12, 2022 outing was in Game 2 of the 2022 NLDS. The Dodgers lost that game as they only mustered three solo home runs against Darvish, coming from Freeman, Muncy, and old friend Trea Turner.
| Date | IP | H | ER | BB | K | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 6, 2024 | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| May 12, 2024 | 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| April 14, 2024 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| March 20, 2024 | 3.2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| August 4, 2023 | 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| May 5, 2023 | 6.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| *Oct. 12, 2022* | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| Sept. 2, 2022 | 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| August 7, 2022 | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| July 2, 2022 | 6.0 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 3 |
| April 23, 2022 | 6.0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Sept. 28, 2021 | 4.0 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| August 26, 2021 | 6.0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| June 21, 2021 | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| April 23, 2021 | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| April 17, 2021 | 7.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
He was great in San Diego’s 2022 postseason run to the NLCS, with a 2.88 ERA through four starts and 25.0 innings pitched. The ERA was great which is your only real job in those games, but it came with a 5.99 FIP due to allowing seven home runs. Luckily enough, those seven home runs accounted for all but one of his earned runs allowed. Once again, a little strange.
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Pretty cool.
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Dustin wrote some stuff essentially previewing tonight’s Game 5. Check it out here.
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If Freddie can play first fine, reach popups in foul ground, and manage to be okay on the bases, I don’t mind if he’s in there at all. If he is significantly limited in any of the above, I think there is more risk than possible reward. Good thing I don’t get paid to make these calls.
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First pitch is at 5:08 PT on FS1.
Do or die.
