Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers had a dominant win in Game 1 of the NLCS, beating the New York Mets by a score of 9-0 and extending their consecutive scoreless inning streak to 33 innings, but had an issue following that up in Game 2. They put up a relatively poor showing in Game 2, dropping that game by a score of 7-3. Sean Manaea proved to be too difficult to hit early in the game and Landon Knack gave up five earned runs in the second inning. Despite being in a 6-0 hole, the Dodgers had a few opportunities to get back into the game but just couldn’t string anything together. There were only a couple positive takeaways, one being that the Dodgers were able to see Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, and Edwin Díaz, while hiding all their own high-leverage relievers.
Walker Buehler is on the mound tonight and is unlikely to go more than five innings, so those relievers will have to get their work in tonight. Luis Severino is on the mound for the Mets, looking to add his third consecutive quality start of the 2024 postseason.
Earlier today, Dustin wrote a nice piece on Buehler’s struggles this season. You should definitely read it because it’s infinitely more useful than anything I can quickly compile in a Game Thread.
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| 5:08 P.M. | New York | ||
| DH | Ohtani (L) | SS | Lindor (S) |
| RF | Betts | 3B | Vientos |
| 1B | Freeman (L) | LF | Nimmo (L) |
| 3B | Muncy (L) | 1B | Alonso |
| LF | T. Hernández | RF | Marte |
| 2B | Lux (L) | DH | Martinez |
| C | Smith | 2B | Iglesias |
| SS | Edman (S) | CF | Taylor |
| CF | K. Hernández | C | Alvarez |
| P | Buehler (R) | P | Severino (R) |
The team mustered just five hits in Game 2, three coming from Tommy Edman alone. Max Muncy looked good even against the lefty Manaea, as he added a solo home run in the fifth inning in addition to two walks. The team had a total of eight walks, but the top five in the order were 0-19. They were 1-9 with runners in scoring position, and left a total of ten men on base. Not good enough.
Severino has featured significant platoon splits this season, resulting in Muncy sliding up to cleanup and Gavin Lux to sixth. Severino has limited RHB to a .216/.292/.323 slash with a 22.8% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate, but against lefties it’s a .269/.334/.440 slash, with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He also has a 1.68 ERA the first time through the order, and a 4.64 ERA the second time through. With Muncy sliding up to fourth and Lux sixth, it maximizes the amount of AB’s left-handed batters will get against Severino. The Mets have one left-handed reliever in Danny Young, and I don’t think that Dave Roberts is particularly concerned with any potential issues coming from having lefties stacked at the top of the order.
The Mets will run out a nearly identical lineup as Game 2, but this time without Jesse Winker. Winker has a .788 OPS and 124 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year, compared to J.D. Martinez at 95 wRC+. It might work out or it might not, but on paper I’m not sure I understand that decision.
Here’s how the Dodgers have performed against Severino.
Outside of Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, and Kevin Kiermaier, nobody has seen much of Severino.
Here’s how Severino and Buehler fared during the regular season.
Severino looked awful last year in his final season with the Yankees, with a 6.65 ERA, 6.14 FIP, and a 1.65 WHIP over 89.1 innings pitched. He signed a one-year deal with the Mets this offseason and has seemingly benefited from a change of scenery and revamped arsenal. He dropped his four-seam fastball usage while increasing his sinker usage, and added a mid-80’s sweeper as his primary breaking-ball. He used to throw a cutter, changeup, and slider, but nearly shelved the slider entirely in favor of a mid-80’s sweeper, and greatly decreased the usage of his changeup and cutter. You’ll primarily get some variation of a fastball that sits near 96 MPH from him, paired with his sweeper. He’ll mix in the changeup and cutter a bit, but the aforementioned three pitches take up 80% of his arsenal.
His last time out against the Phillies, he threw the sweeper 31% of the time, up from his season average of 17%. He accompanied that with dropping his four-seamer usage, and throwing just a handful of sliders, cutters, and changeups. It worked out well for him, as he’s now thrown back-to-back quality starts in the 2024 postseason, going six innings allowing three earned runs with three strikeouts against the Brewers, followed by six innings three earned runs with seven strikeouts against the Phillies. His sweeper has a whiff rate of 38.6%, the 14th highest among 85 pitchers to throw at least 150. It’s definitely a good pitch, and one that the Dodgers’ offense hasn’t performed great against. They’re tenth in wOBA against right-handed sweepers at .286, compared to the fourth ranked wOBA of .354 against fastballs and sinkers from right-handed pitchers. Hopefully they can avoid chasing the sweeper and make him come into the zone with the fastball.
Meanwhile, the Mets have struggled against sliders and sweepers from right-handed pitchers as a whole, with the 20th ranked wOBA against RHP sweepers at .251, and 18th against sliders at .283. It’s just a matter of if Buehler will increase his usage of those two pitches in tonight’s outing. Once again, read Dustin’s post about Buehler.
“His fastball is bad and he should probably throw it less than the 43% he threw it against the Padres a week ago because the Mets are one of the most productive offenses against the 4-seam fastball. Of course, they’ve been more productive against the cutter (.356 wOBA) and are solid against the knuckle curve (.324 wOBA). Perhaps the sweeper is the answer, as the Mets have a .245 wOBA against it this season, and their left-handed hitters have a .261 wOBA against it. Of course, that would mean asking Buehler to do something he hasn’t done in more than three years, but we’ll see what happens.”
Chad’s recap of Game 3 of the NLDS covered Buehler’s outing pretty well. He gave up a very legitimate home run to Fernando Tatis Jr., but it’s very possible that Buehler could’ve had a five or six inning start with two or fewer earned runs. Instead, it was five innings and six earned runs. Buehler has struggled mightily this year and he deserved a much better performance from his defense during that outing. Regardless, it’s in the past and relatively inconsequential now. If he can pitch similarly to how he did last time out, the offense should be in a good spot to give him a lead.
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The Dodgers should have the pitching advantage in both Games 4 and 5, so if they can win Game 3 tonight, they’ll be in a great spot.
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Even when the Dodgers advance to the World Series, it unfortunately makes the most sense to leave Miguel Rojas off the roster unless other injuries pop up.
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Zyhir Hope, acquired along with Jackson Ferris in the Michael Busch trade, has been hitting the cover off the ball in the Arizona Fall League. He’ll be shooting up prospect rankings this offseason.
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First pitch is at 5:08 PT on FS1.
