Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
Welcome everyone, to Game 1 of the 2024 World Series against the New York Yankees. I’d recommend to take a look at my World Series Preview from earlier today that covers everything noteworthy between these two teams.
“The Dodgers and Yankees will meet in the World Series later this evening in a best of seven series between the best teams in their respective leagues, and the two largest franchises in the sport. The Dodgers are coming off a six game series in the NLCS against the Mets, after going five games against the Padres in the NLDS. The Yankees just took down the Cleveland Guardians in five games in the ALCS, after dispatching the Royals in just four games. These two teams have played each other in the Fall Classic eleven times, with the Yankees coming out on top in eight of those eleven matchups. The Dodgers won the previous time these two teams met, back in 1981. They were led by the late Fernando Valenzuela who threw a 147 pitch complete game in Game 3 to give the Dodgers their first win of the series after starting 0-2. The team proceeded to win the next three consecutively, winning the World Series in six games.”
Tonight’s matchup features the 2023 Cy Young winner, Gerrit Cole, up against the Dodgers’ Jack Flaherty. The Dodgers will look to win the first game of the series as they have in the prior two rounds, while the Yankees will look to grab a series lead behind their ace.
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| 5:08 P.M. | Los Angeles | ||
| 2B | Torres | DH | Ohtani (L) |
| RF | Soto (L) | RF | Betts |
| CF | Judge | 1B | Freeman (L) |
| DH | Stanton | LF | T. Hernández |
| 3B | Chisholm (L) | 3B | Muncy (L) |
| 1B | Rizzo (L) | CF | K. Hernández |
| SS | Volpe | C | Smith |
| C | Wells (L) | 2B | Lux (L) |
| LF | Verdugo (L) | SS | Edman (S) |
| P | Cole (R) | P | Flaherty (R) |
Once again, I’d point you towards the offense and lineup section of the World Series Preview.
“Mookie Betts (1.063 OPS), Max Muncy (1.014), Shohei Ohtani (.934), and Kiké Hernández (.863) have led this team overall this October, but the depth has been fantastic. Tommy Edman is coming off the NLCS MVP award, with a 1.022 OPS in that series, hitting .407. Gavin Lux (.593 OPS), and Freddie Freeman (.461) have been injured which at the very least contributes to the performance of the latter. Andy Pages and Chris Taylor both hit well in the NLCS in their opportunities against lefties, with Pages hitting two home runs and Taylor adding three hits and two walks in ten plate appearances. Teoscar and Will Smith both had a rough series, but turned it on in Game 6, with big performances.”
Here’s how everyone has performed against Cole over the course of their careers.
| Player | PA | H | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | .200 | .238 | .400 | .638 |
| Mookie Betts | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .412 | .444 | .471 | .915 |
| Freddie Freeman | 21 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | .350 | .409 | .650 | 1.059 |
| T. Hernández | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | .192 | .250 | .346 | .596 |
| Max Muncy | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .000 | .400 | .000 | .400 |
| Will Smith | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| Gavin Lux | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Tommy Edman | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Miguel Rojas | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| K. Hernández | 25 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | .381 | .480 | .667 | 1.147 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 44 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 21 | .122 | .178 | .220 | .398 |
| Chris Taylor | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Andy Pages | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Austin Barnes | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
A handful of guys haven’t seen Cole before, which makes sense as he’s been in the American League since 2018. Kiké has seen him well, as has Freeman and Mookie.
Anthony Rizzo has a .429/.571/.905 slash against Flaherty in 26 plate appearances with three home runs and five walks to two strikeouts. Juan Soto has just one hit off him in nine at-bats, but has six walks to three strikeouts. Other than those two, nobody has seen him enough to have a substantial advantage or disadvantage based on past experiences.
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Here’s how Cole and Flaherty compared across the regular season.
Cole missed the first few months of the season with nerve inflammation in his right elbow, but was good after returning from injury. His strikeout rate was down a couple percentage points from where it was in 2023 (27.0%), while his walk rate was up marginally as well. Just a little less sharp and less consistent than his 2023 campaign. His last outing went 4.1 innings against the Guardians on October 15, allowing two earned runs on six hits and four walks, with four strikeouts. He has a 3.31 ERA and 3.60 FIP over 16.1 innings pitched this postseason, allowing a .297/.347/.359 slash line.
He has a 2.98 ERA over 120.2 postseason innings, with 146 strikeouts to 32 walks. Considering the increased pressure and higher level of competition, his career performance in the postseason has been fantastic. He sits near 96 MPH on his four-seamer that he throws nearly half the time, with a full five-pitch mix to compliment it. He goes to a knuckle-curve as his primary breaking ball, sitting in the low-80’s, with a low-90’s cutter and upper-80’s slider as well. He throws a changeup less than five percent of the time, but it is in his arsenal against left-handed batters.
Flaherty has a 7.04 ERA and 6.23 FIP over his three starts and 15.1 innings pitched this postseason, with three very different outings. His first start came in Game 2 of the NLDS, where he went 5.1 innings allowing four runs on five hits and one walk. It wasn’t terrible, just not great. Game 1 against the Mets in the NLCS he twirled a gem, going seven scoreless innings allowing just two hits and two walks with six strikeouts. His last outing was a blowup outing, going three innings while allowing eight earned runs on eight hits and four walks.
He’s actually been better against left-handed batters this season, with a .604 OPS allowed, compared to a .730 OPS against right-handed batters. That predominantly comes from allowing less damage, with a .345 slugging percentage against lefties, compared to .440 against RHB. He’s given up 14 home runs and 13 other extra-base hits over 297 right-handed batters faced, compared to ten home runs and ten other XBH allowed against 352 LHB.
He averaged 93.3 MPH on his four-seam fastball this year in the regular season, but it has dropped off significantly in his last two outings. He averaged 93.6 in his NLDS Game 2 outing, but that was down to 92.6 in Game 1 of the NLCS. He averaged just 91.4 in his last outing, down nearly two ticks from his regular season average. It was reported that he had been sick heading into the outing, and it was on four days rest, but everything that’s been said by him, Mark Prior, and Dave Roberts after that outing have all echoed that it was a blip and he’ll be good to go tonight. He’ll have extra rest (as will everyone) as he last pitched on October 18, so hopefully he’s fresh and ready to go out of the gates. Flaherty throws breaking balls over half the time, but he’ll need the fastball working to get into favorable counts and set things up. The Yankees crush fastballs, and Dustin outlined some ways the Dodgers could work around that strength.
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Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol in exchange for Evan Phillips and Edgardo Henriquez might be a net positive, although it hurts to lose Phillips. The official statement is that he’s been experiencing arm fatigue and just isn’t bouncing back well enough to risk putting him on the roster.
The reason I say risk, is that as Eric points out below, as it was a pre-existing injury, they wouldn’t be able to remove him from the roster should he be unable to pitch.
I wonder how that would work for Miguel Rojas, who has been added to the roster in exchange for Kevin Kiermaier. He isn’t starting, which leads me to believe he’ll be a bench bat against right-handed starters, and will start against Rodon tomorrow. Hopefully he’s actually healthy enough to play.
The Dodgers are back in the World Series once again, and the Yankees matchup should be fun. If they play how they have been for the last eleven games, they’ll come out on top.
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First pitch is at 5:08 PT on FOX.
