Who should the Dodgers protect from the 2024 Rule 5 Draft?

Bruce Kuntz 11/18/2024 Dodgers Analysis Leave A Comment

Austin Gauthier (Photo: Cody Bashore)

This season ended on a high note for the Dodgers, which has (justifiably) focused all eyes on the World Champions over the last few weeks. Now, in mid-November, free agency has began and offseason deadlines are looming. One of the bigger deadlines is this Tuesday, Nov. 19 at 3 p.m. PST, when the Dodgers must roster any players they want to protect from this year’s Rule 5 Draft.

It isn’t a huge class of prospects that are newly eligible this year, but there are still some interesting names that are on the bubble, including some players who were Rule 5 eligible but made it through the draft last year. As always, 40-man roster spots are hard to come by for the Dodgers, so there will be some difficult decisions to make.

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Before getting into the names, here’s a refresher on the requirements for Rule 5 eligibility: Every player begins their Rule 5 timeline as soon as they put pen to paper on their first professional contract. If that player is signed at age 18 or younger, they have five seasons before becoming Rule 5 eligible. If they are signed at age 19 or older, they have four seasons. The only way to protect a Rule 5 eligible player from getting taken by another organization is to add them to the team’s 40-man roster. Any Rule 5 eligible player who is not on their club’s 40-man roster by Tuesday’s 3 p.m. PT deadline will be available to be taken during the draft, which takes place on Dec. 11.

There is also a minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft in which players can be taken and remain in the MiLB system of their new organization. The eligibility rules are the same regarding time after signing, but for the MiLB phase, players can be protected by being on their club’s Triple-A roster. The Dodgers lost catching prospect Carson Taylor and right-handed pitching prospect Darlin Pinales in the minor league portion of last year’s Rule 5 Draft. Unlike the Major League phase where draftees must remain on the 26-man roster, there are no roster restrictions on players selected in the minor league phase.

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As things stand now, the Dodgers have 37 players on their 40-man roster. That is not including any current free agents, whether they are previous Dodgers expected to return (ahem, Clayton Kershaw) or other players the Dodgers are pursuing. That leaves pretty limited space for prospects to be locked in and remain in the organization.

With that, let’s get to the names. Here are the Dodger players who are Rule 5 eligible this year, whether it is their first time or they are recurring from previous seasons:

Position Players

Pitchers

It’s a long list of players, but there are only a few at the top that are being considered for roster spots. The list of eligible prospects was just as long, but the Dodgers only protected three last year: Landon Knack, Hunter Feduccia and Nick Frasso. Knack played a large role throughout the season in the majors, Feduccia got a few at-bats and Frasso missed the full year due to injury.

Those three last year all seemed like near locks to be protected. Three of the perceived 40-man locks heading into this season ended up making their debuts in 2024: Justin Wrobleski, Ben Casparius and Edgardo Henriquez. In the end, only one near-lock may remain: Austin Gauthier.

The 25-year-old utilityman would likely be taken as a bench or platoon piece if he wasn’t added to the Dodgers roster. An undrafted free agent out of Hofstra in 2021, Gauthier has posted an .823 OPS across four seasons while playing solid defense all over the diamond. The only thing that holds him back from full-lock status is a slow finish to 2024.

Gauthier started this season on fire in Double-A, but he hit a speed bump after being promoted to Triple-A in early May. He has typically walked at an extremely high rate along with a low number of strikeouts, but both of those areas regressed when he arrived in Oklahoma City. The Wyoming native also saw a drastic decline in his power output despite moving into the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He ended up producing a .247/.355/.330 slash line in 106 games.

Aside from his ability to play across the infield and corner outfield, one thing that helps Gauthier’s outlook as a major leaguer is his splits; although he was more neutral this year, he posted a 1.002 OPS against southpaws in 2023. He could immediately be an on-base threat with consistent contact ability against left-handed pitching.

Outfielder Ryan Ward seems probable to be taken in the Rule 5 Draft, but he is not likely to be rostered by the Dodgers. The 26-year-old had an excellent season in Triple-A last year, mashing 33 homers en route to claiming the Pacific Coast League home run crown. However, his plate discipline regressed, he strikes out quite a bit and he lacks the defensive versatility for the Dodgers to roster him. Ward would make sense for another team to take a flyer on his power and stick him in an outfield corner.

Outfielder Damon Keith and infielder Yeiner Fernandez are each interesting Rule 5 prospects. They were teammates in Double-A this year and each had solid seasons. Keith missed a good chunk of time due to injury, but he slugged .496 and posted a 132 wRC+ in the 75 games he played. Fernandez has the opposite profile, not hitting for much power but possessing good bat-to-ball ability.

Although Keith, a 24-year-old from Cal Baptist and former 18th round pick, also has solid speed and a good glove in the corner outfield, his high-strikeout profile may be enough to scare other teams away. He struck out 33% of the time in 2023, and although he improved by a couple ticks to a 30% strikeout rate this year, that is still pretty high to imagine his power translating to the big leagues right away.

Fernandez, a former Little League World Series star from Venezuela, is still just 22 and has room to improve before he would fit a Major League roster. He is passable defensively at second base or catcher but still raw in both spots. On the bright side, Fernandez has posted a 1.012 OPS through 10 games in the Venezuelan Winter League this offseason. He might be a more likely threat to be lost entering the offseason in 2025 once he has progressed a little further.

On the pitching side, none of the players are more likely to be rostered than not, although some certainly could be. Carlos Duran, Jose Rodriguez and Jack Dreyer are the three arms who make the most sense to consider protecting. Alec Gamboa, Jerming Rosario and Antonio Knowles are also worth a look as prospects who could be taken by other teams.

Duran, a 6-foot-7 right-hander, went untaken in the draft last year as he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. His return to the mound was impressive as he posted a 3.71 ERA and 29% strikeout rate across 19 starts. The 23-year-old has a deep arsenal, including a plus or double-plus slider. How concerned the Dodgers are with his command and/or health history will determine if they roster him, but if he goes into the draft available, other teams could pounce and make him a full-time reliever.

Rodriguez is also a tall right-hander, standing 6-foot-6 on the mound. He has yet to pitch above High-A but the Oaxaca, Mexico native had one of the best pitching seasons in the organization this year. Across 90 2/3 innings, Rodriguez posted a 33% strikeout rate with just an 8.4% walk rate and 2.52 FIP. His changeup is his best pitch, but Rodriguez has enough depth in his arsenal to move forward as a five-and-dive starter, a swingman or a full-time reliever. He would be a risky pick for other teams, but his potential would certainly make them consider it if the Dodgers don’t protect him.

Dreyer is probably the only short-stint reliever the Dodgers might consider protecting. For one, he’s left-handed, which helps his prospects to be rostered. Most importantly though, his results this season were fantastic. Between Double-A and Triple-A, the 25-year-old posted a 2.20 ERA, 32% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate. Dreyer was as dominant as any reliever in the system, and the undrafted free agent has put himself onto the radar of not only the Dodgers’ roster situation but also other teams looking for left-handed bullpen support.

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If I were the Dodgers, I would add Austin Gauthier and Carlos Duran to the 40-man roster before the Tuesday deadline.

For those left unprotected, it would be a surprise if Ryan Ward made it through untaken, but his profile doesn’t fit the Dodgers’ roster construction as it stands. He wouldn’t have a clear path to big league at-bats, and similar to the situation with Ryan Noda in 2022, it may be best for both sides to allow Ward an MLB chance elsewhere.

Similarly, leaving off players like Jack Dreyer, Jose Rodriguez, Damon Keith and Yeiner Fernandez is difficult, but is the reality of the roster crunch. There just aren’t many spots to go around and not everyone can be protected. From this group, I think Rodriguez, Keith and Fernandez have at least a decent chance to make it through the draft. Dreyer may be more of a coin flip, which could cause the Dodgers to protect him after all.

There are some other players on the list that I think could be taken but are unlikely to be rostered by the Dodgers, including Alec Gamboa, Kody Hoese, Andre Lipcius, Jerming Rosario and Antonio Knowles. Some other relief prospects could also be candidates, but are not usually justifiable adds for the Dodgers.

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After Tuesday’s deadline, the Dodgers will have to wait until Dec. 11 to find out if they will lose any prospects to the Rule 5 Draft this year. If any of their players do get taken during the Major League portion, then they will enter 2025 with another organization. They still could make their way back to the Dodgers midseason if the other team decides to outright them off their 26-man roster, like what happened to Gus Varland in 2023.

Regardless of how many players the Dodgers add to their 40-man roster Tuesday, there will probably have to be some maneuvering done as they begin signing players to Major League contracts. The offseason is beginning to heat up, and names should start flying off the board soon. The rumor mill is well in motion.

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About Bruce Kuntz

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I'm a Long Beach State journalism student and I've been writing about the Dodgers and their farm system since I was in high school.
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