Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
With the Dodgers still in need of an outfielder despite already signing Michael Conforto, a reunion with fan favorite and playoff hero Teoscar Hernandez seemed like the common sense move to make once Juan Soto was off the board. Despite a bunch of interest from other teams, and some apparent haggling in the media, thankfully the Dodgers have secured Teoscar’s return by inking him to a three-year, $66 million contract. The deal includes a team option for a fourth year at $15 million. It also, as you’ve come to expect, includes at least $23 million in deferred money and a $23 million signing bonus.
Outfielder Teoscar Hernández and the Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement on a three-year, $66 million contract, sources tell ESPN. The deal includes a fourth-year option for $15 million, a little more than $23 million in deferred money and a $23 million signing bonus.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 27, 2024
If you’re reading this, you already likely know the story with Teoscar, but let’s briefly go over it again.
After establishing himself and making an All-Star team with the Blue Jays, the Mariners acquired him for the 2023 season with the expectation that he would provide needed thump. Instead, he slumped to a .741 OPS and ~2 WAR in his walk year, which led to him taking a one-year, $23.5 million “prove it” deal with the Dodgers (that included deferred money, of course) despite more guaranteed money being offered elsewhere.
Well, what a decision that was.
9 months ago every agent criticized me and Teo for taking a 1-year deal.
— Rafa Nieves (@mlb_agent) October 13, 2024
The truth is, the market was soft for everyone, and he was coming off a down year while playing in a very pitcher friendly environment.
We were looking for a 3-year deal, and while reading the market and… pic.twitter.com/f0ewopyIqB
In his year with the Dodgers, he proved to be one of the most reliable and consistent offensive threats for the team, posting a .272/.339/.501/.840 line for a 134 wRC+. He also provided much-needed right-handed thump and lefty-killing to balance the lineup, taking his great career splits (.894 OPS LHP/.778 OPS RHP) and improving on them in 2024 (.931 OPS LHP/.808 OPS RHP).
I suppose it wasn’t all roses, as despite average baserunning, his defense weirdly fell off a cliff by DRS and FRV, costing him about a win in value last year. While never a plus defender, there’s some potential for that to be an outlier since he graded as around an average defender in the three years prior by the same metrics, and also never quite looked that bad by the eye test. Regardless, the combination resulted in him being around a 3.5-4 WAR player, a steal for the Dodgers on a short-term contract.
Additionally, there was his postseason heroics. Despite struggles to prove “clutch” or whatever, it seems at least apparent that he doesn’t shy away from the moment and is able to be himself on the biggest stage. Teoscar put up a .250/.352/.417/.769 line in the 2024 playoffs, adding a massive 13.3% to their trophy via Championship Win Probability Added by coming up with some of the most important blows during the 2024 run.
Dodgers Top 5 Plays of the Postseason by Win Probability Added (WPA)
— Jacob Brownson (@brownsonjacob2) November 16, 2024
There seems to be a common trend here…
Any surprises or plays you thought would be included but weren’t? pic.twitter.com/KWhChOPVF3
All of that is basically to say he deserved to get paid this off-season, and now it’ll come from the Dodgers yet again.
Thank you for taking a chance, Teoscar. pic.twitter.com/5j4kxLSOXq
— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) October 31, 2024
As far as the contract goes, the predictions from The Athletic, ESPN, FanGraphs, and MLB Trade Rumors were mostly similar to one another.
- The Athletic: 3 years, $69 million
- ESPN: 3 years, $66 million
- FanGraphs: 3 years, $72 million
- MLBTR: 3 years, $60 million
That averaged out to a three-year deal worth $66.75 million for an AAV of $22.25 million, so it ended up being almost spot-on. Given his status as the second-best free agent outfielder, and with the way the market has been trending this off-season, it almost feels light.
The biggest question mark for Teoscar is his 32 years of age and how much longer he can keep up performances like he had in 2024. Regardless, this deal prices him as around an above-average regular (~2.5 WAR), which seems like a fair bet for a player coming off a 4 WAR season that will pay him into his mid-30s (and whose value was maybe closer to 5 WAR last year).
——
Given that the Dodgers still had an outfield need, the fit here is perfect in terms of roster construction. His fit off the diamond is also perfect, as Teoscar Hernandez has received nothing but rave reviews from the front office, coaches, and teammates, so that adds on to the reasons he’s an easy choice to bring back.
Most players will remain guarded while approaching free agency, but Teoscar was anything but in the aftermath of the title, and I doubt there will be any complaints from fans about him returning to the place he clearly wanted to be.
Basically, everything seems to work out ideally for everyone here, and the Dodgers’ lineup will now mostly get a chance to run it back in 2025. Given how special they were in 2024, it’s certainly something to look forward to.
