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As if this off-season couldn’t get any better after news that Roki Sasaki was choosing the Dodgers, now the ideal arm for the bullpen that fans wanted but didn’t really think we’d get is a Dodger as well, as Tanner Scott has agreed to a four-year, $72 million contract with the team.
BREAKING: Tanner Scott and the Dodgers have agreed to a four-year, $72 million deal, per source.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) January 19, 2025
Tanner Scott's Dodgers deal includes deferred money and a signing bonus, similar to other deals the Dodgers have done this winter, a league source told The Athletic. https://t.co/LRH7Ohr3xh
— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) January 19, 2025
Deferred money, of course.
The reason the 30-year-old lefty was the most-desired reliever on the market was evident. In 72 innings last year split between the Marlins and Padres, he put up a stellar 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 2.96 xERA, striking out 84 and walking 36. Scott started the year wild, walking 13 in April, but eventually regained composure and was nails the rest of a way with a 1.52 ERA. As the Dodgers saw first hand, he was dominant in the playoffs with 4.1 scoreless frames and three strikeouts of Shohei Ohtani and three at-bats.
— Jacob Brownson (@brownsonjacob2) January 19, 2025
Remarkably, Scott was arguably better the year before when he struck out 104 and walked just 24 over 78 innings, posting a 2.31 ERA, 2.17 FIP, and 2.50 xERA. Either way, a two-year run of elite back-end relief from the left side after years of struggling to reign in his big arm strength in Baltimore and Miami.
He has just two pitches, a 97 MPH fastball and an 89 MPH slider, but when both pitches are great there doesn’t need to be a lot of odds and ends to an arsenal. Making sure he can consistently throw strikes will be the difference.
Tanner Scott (signed with LAD) is an elite lefty with an electric fastball and wicked slider. He was the best RP available and the Dodgers continue to get stronger
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) January 19, 2025
The Dodgers pitching is going to be a treat to watch https://t.co/5rXdoptnpq pic.twitter.com/tzY7QxLYJj
Scott comes without the burden of a qualifying offer due to be traded for, amusing, by the Padres.
As far as the contract goes, the predictions from The Athletic, ESPN, FanGraphs, and MLB Trade Rumors were low, as they have been all off-season for pitching.
- The Athletic: 4 years, $64 million
- ESPN: 4 years, $54 million
- FanGraphs: 4 years, $60 million
- MLBTR: 4 years, $56 million
That averaged out to a four-year deal worth $58.5 million for an AAV of $14.625 million, so the years ended up being correct but Scott got ~$3 million more per year. Given how elite pitching options have consistently been getting paid more this off-season than projections, this oddly seems about right.
In terms of value, over the last two seasons, Scott has averaged around 2.5 WAR, so his performance has justified the price tag. The problem is mainly that relievers are extremely fickle and can things can go wrong in a hurry, so the four-year commitment is the big component here, much like it was for Kenley Jansen back in 2017.
That said, the Dodgers don’t really care that much about $ per WAR or whatever at this point. It’s all about postseason performance, and Scott provides Dave Roberts with an elite back-end strikeout option from the left side to put into the biggest spots. Almost as important, this prevents their biggest contenders from signing him and giving them an option to potentially neutralize Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. It’s a lot to pay with those tiny samples at the core of their thought, but the Dodgers are swimming in money and if they’re trying to get better this is a great way to do it.
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On social media I had posted the theory that roster spots and not payroll were now what limited the potential of the Dodgers, and as such I wondered if they would go against what they typically do in the pen and spend money on relievers because it’s one of the few places left they have some flexibility.
I was thinking that if roster spots are at a premium cause Ohtani allows them to spend whatever, then I wonder if we see them actually spending in the pen in the future. Cause that's one place where you can kinda have 2-3 top-end guys and still cycle through a bunch of others. We shall see.
— Chad Moriyama (@chadmoriyama.bsky.social) December 13, 2024 at 7:35 AM
Consider that question answered.
I never actually thought they would end up going through with it after all they’ve already done this off-season, but Andrew Friedman and the rest of the front office are on an absolute warpath to make sure the 2025 team is loaded and are injecting new blood into the team to make sure guys are just as hungry for another title.
Expectations are going to be through the roof with moves like this, but realistically it just moves things from “Win the World Series” to “Win the World Series”, and with this signing they certainly appear to have taken another step in the right direction in their attempt to become the first repeat champs since 2000.
