Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
After a miraculous series win against the Minnesota Twins (49-53), the Dodgers (60-43) look to kick off a nine-game road trip against some tough teams. They have five consecutive series against teams that are currently above .500, starting with the Boston Red Sox (55-49) who are currently in a Wild Card spot. The Red Sox have the third best record in baseball in July at 13-5, albeit with most of that coming via a 10-game winning streak early in the month. They’re 2-4 since returning from the All-Star break, losing a series against both the Cubs (60-42) and Phillies (58-44). The Dodgers meanwhile are 7-11 in July, most recently taking the aforementioned series against the Twins. Despite losing 10-of-12 games prior to the Twins series, the Dodgers somehow still lead the NL West by 5.0 games over the San Diego Padres (55-48). Emmet Sheehan will be on the mound looking to bounce back from the worst outing of his season, while the right-handed Brayan Bello looks to continue his recent run of form.
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| 4:10 PM | Boston | |||
| DH | Ohtani (L) | CF | Duran (L) | |
| C | Smith | 3B | Bregman | |
| 1B | Freeman (L) | LF | Anthony (L) | |
| RF | T. Hernández | SS | Story | |
| CF | Pages | DH | Yoshida (L) | |
| LF | Conforto (L) | 2B | Rafaela | |
| 3B | Edman (S) | RF | Abreu (L) | |
| 2B | Kim (L) | 1B | Toro (S) | |
| SS | Rojas | C | Wong | |
| P | Sheehan (R) | P | Bello (R) |
One of Boston’s top prospects and starting second baseman, Marcelo Mayer, just went down with a hand injury and will be out of the lineup. The elite defensive center fielder, Ceddanne Rafaela, will start at second base while Jarren Duran starts in center field. By most outlets, the number one overall prospect, Roman Anthony, will be in left field with Wilyer Abreu in right. Alex Bregman will play third base in his ninth game back from the IL due to a right quad strain that cost him nearly two months.
Mookie Betts is out of the starting lineup due to personal reasons as Dave Roberts said might be the case after Wednesday’s game. Shohei Ohtani moves back to the leadoff spot, while Will Smith and Freddie Freeman round out the top three. The rest of the order is essentially what you’d expect at this point, with Michael Conforto in left field and Miguel Rojas covering shortstop in the absence of Betts.
The Red Sox strikeout a lot. Generally, way too much for a serious contending team. The league-average strikeout rate is 21.9%, and they have just three regulars below that mark in Rafaela (18.6%), Bregman (17.4%), and Abraham Toro (15.3%). Roman Anthony has a 117 wRC+ and .771 OPS thus far, but that was after starting the season 2-for-27 with just one extra-base hit. Since then, over his last 28 games he’s slashing .310/.415/.450, good for an .865 OPS and 143 wRC+. Surely the power he showed in the minors will come around soon, and Boston will have a star on their hands. Duran has regressed this year after he posted a 130 wRC+ and .834 OPS in addition to 10 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 2024, resulting in 6.8 fWAR. Both his wRC+ (104), and OPS (.748) have taken a step back, as has his defense (-5 OAA) while being moved to left field. Boston seems to have found a stud right fielder in 26 year-old Wilyer Abreu, with a 118 wRC+, .816 OPS, and 20 homers while playing Gold Glove defense. Lastly, Bregman was having a fantastic season prior to his injury, with a 155 wRC+ and .935 OPS, racking up over 2.0 WAR in just 50 games.
After a stretch of pitiful offense, the Dodgers have shown signs of life, with 28 runs scored over their previous five games. While he still hasn’t been as sharp as we’re used to seeing him, Shohei Ohtani has homered in five consecutive games, bringing his season total up to 37. He’s seemingly at his best when he’s driving pitches all over the field, and all five of those homers have been either to the opposite field or center. Freeman added two hits in the series finale on Wednesday including the walk-off single to the opposite field. He had a hit in each game of that series, and avoided a strikeout in back-to-back games, something he hadn’t done in nearly a month. He mentioned possibly finding something in his swing, and hopefully this is the point where he turns things around.
Andy Pages was hitless in the series finale, but prior to that had homered in two consecutive games as he looks to be busting out of his slump as well. Tommy Edman was held hitless for 30 consecutive at-bats over a stretch of two weeks, but now has five hits in his last four games. The offense isn’t out of the woods yet by any means, but signs of life are much appreciated.
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Here’s how Sheehan and Bello compare.
Sheehan allowed five runs on seven hits and one walk with three strikeouts across three innings his last time out against the Brewers, after allowing just three runs over his first 13.1 innings this season. He wasn’t necessarily sharp, but the Brewers had a .600 BABIP against him in that outing. Among individual starts by Dodgers this season, that trails only Matt Sauer‘s 13 hit, 9 ER appearance against the Padres (.632 BABIP). His overall season numbers are a bit inflated now, but he’ll look to get back on track before Blake Snell returns to the rotation. Once Snell returns, things get a little tight, which is good for the Dodgers as a team, but possibly problematic for the group of Ben Casparius, Dustin May, and Sheehan.
Bello took the loss his last time out, allowing three runs on six hits and one walk over six innings against the Cubs. He allowed first-inning home runs to both Michael Busch and Kyle Tucker, but still managed to pull together a quality start. Bello had won each of his previous three starts, mixing in a two-run complete game. After a seven run outing in the middle of May, Bello has a 2.85 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and a 1.07 WHIP across 10 starts. He has delivered eight consecutive quality starts, quite the feat against some tough competition. He has a true five-pitch mix, starting with a four-seamer and a sinker in the mid-90’s. A mid-80’s sweeper is his primary breaking ball, but he also mixes in a changeup and cutter, both in the upper-80’s. The Dodgers faced him once last year in Los Angeles, where he went six innings allowing three runs on five hits, one walk, and seven strikeouts.
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Walker Buehler getting his World Series ring while wearing Boston … green is nice.
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Hopefully everything is fine with Mookie and his family. It’s definitely a serious matter to miss games in a return to Boston.
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Max Muncy returning soon should get the lineup humming again. Snell returning soon bolsters the rotation.
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First pitch is at 4:10 PT on SNLA.
