Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers (79-54) managed to even up the series against the Orioles (77-57) last night in a very solid 6-4 win. Baltimore is a tough squad and had the definitive starting pitching advantage last night with Corbin Burnes against Walker Buehler, but the latter had the better outing, setting the Dodgers up for success. It was the best Buehler had looked all season and he pitched better than his final line would suggest. It was a really encouraging outing and hopefully something he can build on moving forward. That’s also exactly what Bobby Miller will be trying to do tonight, coming off his best start in months his last time out. Overall, Miller has obviously struggled this season, but so has the opposing starter Cade Povich, the rookie left-hander.
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| 7:10 P.M. | Los Angeles | ||
| LF | Cowser (L) | DH | Ohtani (L) |
| C | Rutschman (S) | RF | Betts |
| SS | Henderson (L) | LF | T. Hernández |
| RF | Santander (S) | CF | Edman (S) |
| 1B | O’ Hearn (L) | SS | Rojas |
| DH | Jiménez | 1B | K. Hernández |
| CF | Mullins (L) | 3B | Taylor |
| 3B | Urías | 2B | Lux (L) |
| 2B | Holliday (L) | C | Barnes |
| P | Povich (L) | P | Miller (R) |
This Orioles continue to send out their “A” lineup, with Adley Rutschman back behind the plate and Eloy Jiménez once again at DH. The Dodgers on the other hand will send out a lineup that resembles a getaway game. They don’t have a day off before a very important four game series on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks (76-58), so the lineup reflects that a little bit. Freddie Freeman will once again be absent from the lineup, getting him a full four days of rest to help deal with his finger issue. Kiké Hernández has been solid with the bat and at first base in Freeman’s absence.
Max Muncy will have the day off against the left-handed Povich after starting the first two games of this series. Muncy has struggled against lefties this year and that continued in Tuesday’s game against Cole Irvin. On the season he has a 73 wRC+ and a .596 OPS against lefties while hitting just .136, compared to a .907 OPS and 143 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. He didn’t have any issues hitting lefties for the majority of his career, but his left-on-left issues started last season and have continued this year. It was probably a factor in keeping Chris Taylor around, as if Muncy is still struggling against lefties heading into the postseason he will likely need to be platooned.
Gavin Lux will get the nod at second base, although if Freeman were healthy he’d likely be on the bench tonight as well. Lux has a .730 OPS and 105 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year compared to an unplayable .386 OPS and 17 wRC+ against lefties. It seems like the idea would be Kiké and Taylor starting for Muncy and Lux against lefties with Tommy Edman in center field and Miguel Rojas at shortstop. Will Smith‘s slump still persists, and he’ll have a much needed day off heading into the weekend series. Barnes is all but unplayable against a team that runs like Arizona, so Smith will be busy all weekend.
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Povich and Miller have had awful seasons thus far, but both still possess very high upside.
The Orioles received Povich in their 2022 trade with the Twins that also landed them Yennier Canó for Jorge López, a clear win for Baltimore in hindsight. The lefty lands in most top 100 prospect lists and projects to be a reliable mid-rotation arm. He doesn’t blow anyone away, sitting at just over 92 MPH with his four-seamer, but has three reliable breaking balls that he can mix and match with a mid-70’s curve, low-80’s sweeper, and a high-80’s cutter. He alternates speed with those three separate breakers, and mixes in a mid-80’s changeup that he throws solely to right-handed batters. His profile projects well for his future and the future of Baltimore’s rotation, but the results haven’t been there in his limited innings this season.
His last time out he allowed five runs on eight hits and two walks over five innings, increasing his season ERA to 6.10 and WHIP to 1.62. He’s done so while recording just 34 strikeouts over 48.2 innings with an uninspiring 25 walks. He was coming off a solid outing in which he allowed just two runs on six hits with six strikeouts over 6.1 innings against the Red Sox, but wasn’t able to improve upon that against the Astros. He’ll hope to get things back on track tonight and hopefully get his rookie season trending upwards.
Miller allowed three runs on seven hits his last time out against the Rays, but added nine strikeouts and no walks in a promising outing. He really struggled in St. Louis prior to that start with four wild pitches and just one strikeout over 4.2 innings, but looked like a different pitcher in his last outing with his second best start of the season. With Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow still out, his spot in the rotation is safe moving forward, but finding his 2023 self would completely change the Dodgers’ postseason projection. His velocity was up across the board and he altered his usage a bit, throwing his curveball at a season high 25% clip. He threw it 24 times, and got 15 swings and six whiffs, after sitting below 17% usage prior to that outing. Additionally, his sinker usage was up and his four-seam usage was down, so it’ll be interesting to see if that continues as well.
Based on Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ model, Miller is one of just 13 pitchers with two above-average fastballs which naturally is a good list to be on. The deal for Miller is that by Stuff models he also has an above-average curveball, slider, and changeup so … the entirety of his arsenal. It should be difficult for Miller to be bad if he just finds some semblance of command like he did his last time out.
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Sounds about right with a huge series coming up.
The Dodgers need Glasnow to be healthy in October, so my personal hope (or cope) is that they’re slow playing him and he’ll benefit from the time off and be fresh for the postseason.
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Arizona’s offense has been incredible as of late, so all of Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Jack Flaherty, and likely Justin Wrobleski will need to be on their games, as will the offense. They need to win three of four to secure home field advantage over Arizona.
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Even with Smith’s struggles, Hunter Feduccia barely had a chance.
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First pitch is at 7:10 PT on SNLA.
