Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Mets destroyed the Dodgers and Jack Flaherty in New York by a score of 12-6 in Game 5, sending the series back to Los Angeles for Games 6 and 7 (if necessary). Dustin’s piece published yesterday (which you should read), outlined a very positive point of view on the Game 5 loss, and where the Dodgers stand going into Game 6.
“Yes, Game 5 — a potential closeout game — didn’t go anywhere close to planned. The Dodgers had 2nd and 3rd with no outs in the first inning, only not to score. Jack Flaherty had nothing. His stuff didn’t look great and his fastball velocity dipped considerably. The high-leverage bullpen arms weren’t used in hopes of either using them in a more high-leverage, late-inning situation and/or in a potential Game 6. As you might expect, the Dodgers got throttled 12-6. They made it interesting a couple times, but not interesting enough to really think they were going to come back.”
Chad’s recap directly after the loss accurately conveyed how irritating the loss was, and the way that things played out.
“Why (Flaherty) was allowed to (continue) by Dave Roberts when the game was still within striking distance after two innings is beyond me, but that’s what happened. He basically conceded a potential clinching game. Dunno.”
Regardless of how you feel, Game 5 happened and the attention now turns to Game 6. The Dodgers have a chance to reach the World Series for the first time since 2020, and if they advance they’ll face the Yankees for the first time since 1981. In order to do so, they’ll have to go up against the revamped Sean Manaea, who is having an excellent postseason. The Dodgers will counter with a bullpen game that in theory will be similar to NLDS Game 4, which featured all the high-leverage relievers.
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| 5:08 P.M. | Los Angeles | ||
| SS | Lindor (S) | DH | Ohtani (L) |
| LF | Nimmo (L) | RF | Betts |
| 3B | Vientos | LF | T. Hernández |
| 1B | Alonso | SS | Edman (S) |
| DH | Winker (L) | 1B | Muncy (L) |
| RF | Marte | 3B | K. Hernández |
| CF | Taylor | CF | Pages |
| 2B | McNeil (L) | C | Smith |
| C | Alvarez | 2B | Taylor |
| P | Manaea (L) | P | Kopech (R) |
Will Smith is slashing just .143/.268/.229 over ten games and 41 plate appearances this postseason. The only player with a lower OPS than Smith, is Freddie Freeman at .461. Freeman is 3-18 in the NLCS over four games, and especially against the lefty Manaea, I don’t see any reason to start him. The power isn’t there, his timing and comfort in the box seem off, and the team can survive without him, especially if he’s going to post an OPS lower than .500. Max Muncy has a 1.482 OPS in the NLCS, including a ridiculous .636 on-base percentage. I don’t really care about the matchup, he has to be in the top four for me, especially with Teoscar Hernández scuffling. Teoscar is still looking for his first hit of the NLCS, currently hitless in 18 at-bats, with seven walks and nine strikeouts over five games. The walks are nice, but you need him to contribute to the offense at some point. Tommy Edman is hitting .409 in the NLCS, with an .891 OPS and has hit in five different spots in the order this series. Mookie Betts has been great, and has completely squashed any talk of him not showing up in the postseason. He has a 1.235 OPS in the NLCS, with two home runs and three doubles, and through all ten postseason games thus far, owns a team leading 1.079 OPS. Ohtani wasn’t great in the NLDS, but has stepped up his game in the NLCS, with a 1.205 OPS and .538 OBP. That improves his postseason OPS to .917, good for third on the team.
Andy Pages has just 14 at-bats in the postseason, but thanks to his performance in Game 5, owns a 1.047 OPS. He hit two home runs in that game, doing all he could to claw the Dodgers back into a game they had essentially lost by the third inning. It was his first multi-homer game of his career, one coming off the lefty David Peterson, and the other off one of the Mets’ high-leverage relievers, Reed Garrett. He’ll get the start today, and translating some of that success against Manaea would do wonders for the offense. Chris Taylor also gets his second start of the series, starting at second for Gavin Lux. Roberts did say pregame he expected Lux to get in the game today.
David Adler of MLB.com had a great article looking at the matchup between Manaea and Shohei Ohtani which resulted in two strikeouts and one pop up in Game 2. It’s a good breakdown on Manaea’s new arm angle and how it impacts Ohtani (and left-handed batters as a whole).
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When it comes to the bullpen usage, the Dodgers getting smacked around in Game 5 did allow all the high-leverage arms to continue resting and limit their overall exposure to the Mets’ batters. Something that I personally wasn’t aware of, was how significant the impact was on relief performance as they were exposed to hitters more over the course of a longer series.
With the way the bullpens have been working during the NLCS, this provides the Dodgers with a considerable advantage over the Mets at this stage in the series.
All credit to Eric Stephen of True Blue LA for his charts below, showcasing the bullpen usage for both teams thus far.
For the Dodgers, all I can say with certainty is that they like using their high-leverage guys against the Lindor, Vientos, and Nimmo or Alonso group. Those guys will likely never see the same pitcher twice tonight. Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, and Evan Phillips are the go-to relievers, with Ryan Brasier, Anthony Banda, and Daniel Hudson a tier below. Honeywell will be unavailable tonight, and Landon Knack is very unlikely to be involved. Ben Casparius could cover a couple inning if the game calls for it, one way or another. Kopech draws the start as it seems like the Dodgers are managing this bullpen game with more urgency than the last one. Kopech is a former starter, but has recorded more than four outs only seven times in 67 appearances this season and only did so once as a Dodger.
I didn't include Knack or Honeywell among the Dodgers relievers
— Eric Stephen (@ericstephen) October 19, 2024
Here are who the Mets relievers (minus Peterson and Senga) have faced through 5 games: pic.twitter.com/u7fpSNafjA
The Dodger offense has faced the heart of New York’s bullpen a couple times now, mainly Edwin Díaz, Garrett, and Ryne Stanek.
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Manaea had a great year for the Mets this season and will clearly be opting out of his contract and hitting free agency this winter, after posting a 3.47 ERA over 181.2 innings. He’s continued his great regular season into the postseason, with a 2.65 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and a 1.00 WHIP over 17.0 innings and three starts. His past two outings have been wins, most recently coming against the Dodgers in Game 2, going five innings allowing two earned runs on two hits, four walks, and seven strikeouts. Teoscar Hernández walked twice, while Kiké Hernández and Betts each walked once. Edman had a single up the middle, while Muncy hit a solo home run. Once Manaea was out of the game, Edman added a two-run single of Phil Maton, scoring the two runners that Maton had inherited from Manaea. Andy Pages struck out twice against Manaea, and he’ll need to be better tonight.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Manaea, who dropped his arm slot near the end of July, with his new release point mimicking that of Chris Sale. Since lowering his arm slot near the end of July, Manaea has a 3.09 ERA, 3.35 FIP, and a 0.85 WHIP, with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate over 12 starts and 75.2 innings pitched. He got blown up in his final start of the year against the Brewers, going 3.2 innings while allowing five earned runs on seven hits and two walks, including two home runs. Prior to that outing, his eleven starts since lowering his arm slot resulted in a 2.63 ERA, 3.13 FIP, a 0.76 WHIP, with a 30.3% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. Unfortunately you can’t just remove a start from someone’s season, but overall he pitched like an ace to close the season.
I’m hoping that the change in arm slot and angle just takes getting used to and that the offense will see him better this time out. They were patient and took their walks, but had difficulty putting the ball in play to cash those runners in.
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I’m sure that Smith is “fine”, but catchers take a beating every time they’re behind the plate and he’s caught all ten games so far this postseason. Smith does start again tonight.
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First pitch is at 5:08 PT on FS1.
