2024 World Series Preview: Dodgers vs. Yankees

The Dodgers and Yankees will meet in the World Series later this evening in a best of seven series between the best teams in their respective leagues, and the two largest franchises in the sport. The Dodgers are coming off a six game series in the NLCS against the Mets, after going five games against the Padres in the NLDS. The Yankees just took down the Cleveland Guardians in five games in the ALCS, after dispatching the Royals in just four games. These two teams have played each other in the Fall Classic eleven times, with the Yankees coming out on top in eight of those eleven matchups. The Dodgers won the previous time these two teams met, back in 1981. They were led by the late Fernando Valenzuela who threw a 147 pitch complete game in Game 3 to give the Dodgers their first win of the series after starting 0-2. The team proceeded to win the next three consecutively, winning the World Series in six games.

There are five MVP’s between these two teams in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Judge. Additionally, there are likely seven future Hall of Famers between these two in the aforementioned Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Stanton, and Judge, with Juan Soto on a first-ballot pace and Gerrit Cole a strong possibility. The last time two regular season MVP’s faced each other in the World Series was Buster Posey and Miguel Cabrera back in 2012, and Judge and Ohtani are all but guaranteed to each win the award this year. Two players with fifty home run seasons have never met in the World Series, and the last time each league’s home run leader met was Mickey Mantle and Duke Snider in 1956.

It’s the first time since 2009 that the Yankees have made the World Series, while the Dodgers have made it for the fourth time in eight years, looking for their second (should be third) World Series Title in that span.

Additionally, you can check out Dustin’s post from yesterday about how the Dodgers’ pitching might attack the Yankees.

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Lineups

Stats	Yankees	Dodgers
AVG	.248 (9)	.258 (4)
OBP	.333 (3)	.335 (2)
SLG	.429 (4)	.446 (1)
OPS	.761 (3)	.781 (1)
wRC+	117 (2)	118 (1)
SB	88 (24)	136 (10)
HR	237 (1)	233 (3)
R & R/G	815 & 5.0 (3)	842 & 5.2 (2)
K%	21.2% (9)	21.4% (11)
BB%	10.8% (1)	9.6% (3)
Hard Hit %	33.1% (5)	32.9% (6)

These two offenses graded out very similarly over the course of 162 games, featuring superstars at the top, with complimentary guys mixed in. Judge and Soto led New York throughout the entirety of the season, while Ohtani did the same with Betts and Freeman helping when healthy.

Judge led baseball with a 218 wRC+ and 1.159 OPS, cumulating 11.2 fWAR, an absurd season. Soto had a fantastic year with New York and put together a season that will earn him a lot of money this upcoming free agency. He had a 180 wRC+ and .989 OPS worth 8.1 fWAR, forming a daunting combination with Judge. Those two had monstrous seasons, but featured less complimentary production from the rest of the team compared to that of the Dodgers. Jazz Chisholm Jr. had a 132 wRC+ in his 46 games with New York, while Stanton posted a 116 wRC+. Austin Wells (105 wRC+), and Gleyber Torres (104 wRC+), were both above-average but everyone else was below league-average during the regular season.

With runners in scoring position this postseason, Chisholm and Wells have combined for one hit in 19 at-bats while hitting in the middle of the order. As a whole, the Yankees are 13-72 with runners in scoring position this postseason, with the big hits predominantly coming from Soto and the ALCS MVP Stanton. Judge was hitless in seven at-bats with RISP and has just one hit in his last 24 postseason at-bats with RISP. Those stats are noteworthy until they’re not. Mookie Betts was struggling in the postseason until he wasn’t.

Anthony Rizzo was added to the ALCS roster after not playing in the ALDS due to two broken fingers. He had five singles and a double in 14 at-bats, although he had a quite poor regular season with an 84 wRC+ in 92 games. Anthony Volpe has always shown flashes of an impact bat to accompany his plus defense at shortstop, and this postseason he’s mostly looked the part, with a 147 wRC+, hitting .310 with a .459 OBP over 37 plate appearances. Stanton won ALCS MVP, and is now slashing .294/.385/.794, good for a 220 wRC+ and 1.179 OPS. Soto is slashing .333/.439/.667 which sounds about right for him. Gleyber Torres has been great with a .297/.400/.432 slash, getting on-base at a high clip from the leadoff spot, something the Dodgers need to prevent. Judge hasn’t been great, with a .704 OPS and .161/.317/.387 slash, but it’s easy for him to turn it around in a hurry. Some issues for the Yankees come from Alex Verdugo (.544 OPS), Chisholm (.481 OPS), and Wells (.348 OPS), all underperforming with the other bench bats hardly contributing. Jon Berti has logged 11 at-bats and is hitting just .182, while Oswaldo Cabrera has made six at-bats with just one hit. They’ve had a bit of an issue from at least three or four spots in the order from their regulars, a weakness that the Dodgers haven’t had.

All of Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Muncy, and Teoscar Hernandez had higher marks in wRC+ than the Yankees third best hitter in Chisholm. Will Smith had a 111 wRC+ despite second half struggles, while Andy Pages and Lux both had wRC+ marks of exactly 100 (and higher against the handedness they’re deployed against). Tommy Edman had a 98 wRC+, but was a monster against lefties in the regular season and has continued that into the postseason. Against lefties this postseason, Edman is 9-14 with a homer and three doubles. He had eleven hits and eleven RBI in the NLCS, tying Corey Seager‘s 2020 franchise record of RBI in a single postseason series. Muncy set a postseason record of twelve consecutive plate appearances reaching base, resulting in a staggering .630 on-base percentage in the NLCS. Betts had nine hits including six extra-base hits, with an 1.182 OPS and nine RBI, while Ohtani had a slash line of .364/.548/.636, an 1.185 OPS with nine walks to seven strikeouts.

Betts (1.063 OPS), Muncy (1.014), Ohtani (.934), and Kiké (.863) have led this team overall this October, but the depth has been fantastic. Edman is coming off the NLCS MVP award, with a 1.022 OPS in that series, hitting .407. Gavin Lux (.593 OPS), and Freeman (.461) have been injured which at the very least contributes to the performance of the latter. Pages and Chris Taylor both hit well in the NLCS in their opportunities against lefties, with Pages hitting two home runs and Taylor adding three hits and two walks in ten plate appearances. Teoscar and Smith both had a rough series, but turned it on in Game 6, with big performances.

The Dodgers have scored within the first two innings in ten of their eleven games in the postseason, with the top of the order doing a lot of the heavy lifting early. Ohtani is 6-9 with runners in scoring position in the postseason, and the Dodgers are 33-106 as a whole with RISP, including 14 extra-base hits. This postseason, Ohtani, Betts, Edman, and Kiké have combined to go 19-40 with RISP, responsible for a lot of damage against the Mets and Padres. The Yankees’ first two opponents this postseason in Kansas City and the Guardians were both great teams, but neither was a particularly strong offensive group. Cleveland had a wRC+ of 100 (17th), while Kansas City was at 96, good for 20th. Cleveland walked at a 7.9% clip this season, while the Royals were at 7.2%, both in the bottom third of the league. They expand the zone and that is a particularly bad matchup against a Yankees’ pitching staff that loves when a team will chase. Luckily, the Dodgers aren’t that. The Dodgers scored 46 runs over six games in the NLCS, more than any NL team had scored in a postseason series. They walked 42 times against the Mets, a postseason record, 17 of which scored.

Tommy Kahnle throwing 48 straight changeups might not work unless he’s landing them in the zone. Jose Quintana of the Mets had a great year, but he excels when batters will chase outside of the zone. It didn’t work, and the Dodgers scored five runs in 3.1 innings in Game 4. If the Yankees replicate the Mets’ pitching performance, they will not win this series. The Dodgers will take what you give them, and if you give out free passes to the bottom of the order, Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts await you at the top.

Defense and Baserunning

Baserunning and defense can make or break a team in the postseason, start or kill a rally, and completely shift momentum. The Yankees were the worst baserunning team in baseball this year by FanGraphs’ BsR, an all encompassing baserunning statistic. The Dodgers were the fourth best in baseball, trailing only the very speediest of teams like the Brewers and Reds. There have been a couple minor base running issues for the Dodgers this postseason, but most have come from not taking an extra base or scoring on an infield grounder. Relatively minor as a whole, while the Yankees were picked off three times against the Guardians.

The Dodgers have eleven stolen bases in twelve attempts this postseason, with Ohtani the only one unsuccessful after going 59 for 63 in the regular season. Edman leads the team with three, while Betts has two. Wells, Jose Trevino, and all the New York pitchers do have to keep base runners in check, as even Muncy and Teoscar have unexpectedly swiped a bag. Trevino has been the backup catcher to Wells, and his inability to hold baserunners is a big reason behind that. His average speed on throws to second base of 72.9 MPH was last among 63 qualified catchers, trailing even Austin Barnes (73.3). Smith was the best throwing catcher this year, but his framing and blocking dropped off significantly in exchange.

Wells was around league-average at controlling the running game, but had an excellent year behind the plate grading out very well in both framing and blocking. He had a 105 wRC+ over 414 plate appearances, totaling 3.4 fWAR putting him in a great spot to earn Rookie of the Year votes. Opposing baserunners are 38-44 when stealing against Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon this season, an angle that the Dodgers might be willing to try and exploit.

Grounding into double plays requires men on base, so better offenses have more opportunities, but the Yankees led baseball with 138 double plays grounded into. The Dodgers were 21st at 99, and grounded into just one double play in the NLCS, while the Yankees grounded into five in the ALCS, which lasted just five games. Little things add up in October.

Anthony Volpe was great at shortstop with 13 Outs Above Average (OAA) recorded, while Jazz Chisholm has picked up third (to mixed results), with six OAA, but -2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Gleyber Torres has graded out very poorly at second base, at -11 DRS and -7 OAA. Soto has been better this year, but he’s still at -1 DRS and -5 OAA in right field. As good as Judge is, he’s been worth -9 DRS and -5 OAA in center field. Verdugo has been solid in left field with 8 DRS and 0 OAA, helping cover for weaknesses Judge and Soto possess. Teoscar has graded out well in right field, but has to play left field, where he’s been worth -8 DRS and -9 OAA. Pages has been bad in center field, but above-average in right field. Kiké has been playing center field and has looked solid out there, with Kevin Kiermaier able to come in as a defensive replacement, or Edman if need be.

Sports Info Solutions (the group that created DRS) posted defensive previews for both the Dodgers, and the Yankees, discussing both in greater detail.

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Rotation

Stats	Yankees	Dodgers
IP	871.1 (9)	797.2 (25)
ERA	3.85 (11)	4.23 (19)
FIP	4.13 (18)	4.28 (22)
WHIP	1.22 (9)	1.26 (20)
SIERA	4.09 (12)	4.10 (13)
K%	23.7% (4)	22.8% (11)
BB%	8.4% (23)	8.0% (21)
Hard Hit%	32.0% (19)	32.2% (20)

The Dodgers’ starting rotation is a weakness compared to that of the Yankees. Jack Flaherty made two starts in the NLCS, one going seven scoreless and one allowing eight runs in three innings. The Dodgers don’t need seven shutout every night, but they can’t have outings like Game 5 of the NLCS. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is coming off a good outing in New York, allowing two earned runs over 4.1 innings with eight strikeouts. Walker Buehler had four shutout innings in Game 3 with six strikeouts, also looking quite strong considering his regular season. The fourth starter is a “bullpen game”, although this probably means two or more innings of Ben Casparius, who has thrown 4.1 scoreless innings with four strikeouts, two walks, and two hits allowed. Landon Knack struggled badly against the Mets, and his fastball might not allow him to even get a chance to face New York. Brent Honeywell has allowed four earned runs over 7.2 innings, but the team seems to love him and saving the high-leverage arms is valuable as the last guy on the roster. I’ll make an edit or adjustment to this section once the official rosters are released.

Once again, you can check out Dustin’s post about how Dodgers’ pitching might attack the Yankees.

Through nine postseason games, New York’s starters are averaging just under five innings per start. Their bullpen is good, although I’m not convinced that their depth is as tested or as strong as that of the Dodgers. The Yankees starters need to find a way to get deeper into the game to bridge the gap to Luke Weaver and Clay Holmes.

The Yankees’ front four is as follows – Gerrit Cole, the lefty Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, and the rookie Luis Gil. Cole and Rodon have each made three starts this postseason, while Schmidt has made two and Gil has made one. Cole has had the most success, with a 3.31 ERA over 16.1 innings pitched, with a 3.60 FIP and a rather ugly for his standards, 1.53 WHIP. He has just twelve strikeouts to six walks over those 16.1 innings, both subpar for the 2023 Cy Young winner. Rodon has been the most “dominant” starter for New York, with 22 strikeouts to just one walk over 14.1 innings. He has a 4.40 ERA, but it’s accompanied by a 2.12 FIP and 1.12 WHIP. Schmidt has a 3.86 ERA over 9.1 postseason innings and had a solid season shortened by injury. He had a 3.65 ERA over his final five outings of the season after returning from a right lat strain. Luis Gil had a 3.50 ERA over 151.2 innings pitched, but had a 4.20 ERA and 12.8% walk rate in the second half. He has crazy stuff but has had very limited control this season, probably not a matchup the Yankees love.

The pitchers will be discussed in further detail in the Game Threads.

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Bullpen

Stats	Yankees	Dodgers
IP	581.1 (19)	648.0 (5)
ERA	3.62 (6)	3.53 (4)
FIP	3.96 (19)	4.05 (21)
WHIP	1.24 (10)	1.18 (5)
SIERA	3.67 (13)	3.79 (18)
K%	23.9% (12)	23.3% (19)
BB%	9.1% (20)	8.7% (14)
Hard Hit %	28.3% (4)	29.9% (9)
Saves	45	50
Save%	68%	65%

The Dodgers’ bullpen has been a significant strength this postseason, with Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, and Evan Phillips combining for two earned runs over 20.0 innings, forming the clear top three in the bullpen. Alex Vesia is as deserving of high-leverage spots as any of them but missed the NLCS with an intercostal strain. He had four strikeouts in three innings with just one hit allowed and one walk, with two holds in the NLDS. He’s fantastic when he’s right, and adding a fourth high-leverage arm and a left-handed one is huge. Ryan Brasier hasn’t been great but had been tasked with starting two games, oftentimes not easy for relievers who are unaccustomed to doing so. Anthony Banda has allowed just one earned run in 5.2 innings pitched, while Daniel Hudson has done the same in 4.1 innings. The high-leverage arms that the Dodgers trust outnumbers that of the Yankees, and the performance of the lower-leverage arms has been better as well.

Clay Holmes was the closer for the majority of the season, but led baseball with 13 blown saves and was replaced by Weaver late in the season. Weaver has thrown 10.1 innings and pitched in eight of the nine games the Yankees have played, as has Holmes who has thrown 7.2 innings. There is significant risk in doing so, and the list of trusted relievers isn’t that long for New York. Weaver has allowed three earned runs as has Holmes, both performing well but not spectacular. Former Dodger Tommy Kahnle has been great with seven scoreless innings, but that includes six walks which isn’t a great strategy against the Dodgers. If the starters aren’t getting deep into games, the top guys will end up overworked, or New York will have to go to the parts of the pen they don’t trust as much.

Tim Mayza had a 6.33 ERA on the year, with a 4.00 ERA over 18.0 innings with New York after being acquired from Toronto. Tim Hill is the side-arming lefty that the Dodgers had seen for a handful of years with the Padres. He had 18 strikeouts to 9 walks in 44.0 innings with the Yankees, relying on soft contact from his strange arm slot. Jake Cousins had a good year with a 2.37 ERA over 38.0 innings, but his 12.9% walk-rate presents some concern for the Yankees. He’s tough to hit, but the walks can really hurt you in October. Nestor Cortes missed a month with a left elbow flexor strain, but will be the third lefty in the pen for New York, something they’re obviously trying to bolster. Ian Hamiltion had been good for the Yankees this season, but was removed from the ALCS roster with a calf injury, a tough loss for New York. They added Mark Leiter Jr. in his place who issued three walks and two hits in 2.1 innings, including a blown save. They have two guys they really trust, and a few guys they hope to deploy correctly and ride the hot hand.

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Head-To-Head

The Dodgers visited the Yankees in early June, taking two of three on the road. The Yankees were without Soto that weekend, arguably their most important player in big moments, and the series could’ve gone differently if they’d had him.

Yamamoto had his best start of the season against the Yankees, going seven shutout innings with seven strikeouts while allowing just two hits and two walks. The Yankees then faced Gavin Stone who they won’t see this postseason, while the Dodgers put up four runs on Cortes who will be available out of the bullpen. Finally, the Yankees saw Tyler Glasnow who they also won’t see, while the Dodgers saw Luis Gil who will start in either Game 3 or Game 4. They put up three earned runs in 5.2 innings against Gil, so they saw him decently at a time where he was pitching lights out.

The sample size is limited and the real test is the World Series.

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Schedule

Game 1, LA – Friday, October 25 – 5:08 PM PT

Game 2, LA – Saturday, October 26 – 5:08 PM PT

Game 3, NY – Monday, October 28 – 5:08 PM PT

Game 4, NY – Tuesday, October 29 – 5:08 PM PT

Game 5, NY – Wednesday, October 30 – 5:08 PM PT *

Game 6, LA – Friday, November 1 – 5:08 PT *

Game 7, LA – Saturday, November 2 – 5:08 PT *

*If necessary.

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Overview

This is a really good matchup between two very good teams. Offensively they’ve succeeded in similar ways, with patient at-bats and strong plate discipline, combined with high end power. They walk, they get on base, they slug. The Dodgers have been better on the bases and have relied on their defensive positioning and versatility to create a strong defense. The Yankees obviously have an advantage in the starting pitching department, with four legitimate starters, compared to the Dodgers’ three who’ve had mixed results this postseason. The bullpen advantage goes to the Dodgers as well, as the high-leverage arms are better, and the pen is deeper with more trustworthy arms. These two teams are very comparable in many ways, and the series will likely be decided by whoever shows up when it counts.

Buckle up.