Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Toronto Blue Jays (68-49) came into Los Angeles yesterday with the best record in the American League, but were held to just one run by Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers (67-49) in a 5-1 game. Kershaw, despite averaging just 88.7 mph on his four-seamer, allowed just one run over six innings requiring just 74 pitches, against one of the best offenses in the league. Mookie Betts drove in three runs including his first homer since early July. It was a very encouraging game all around, performing well against one of the hotter teams in the sport. Blake Snell will be on the mound today going for the series win, making his second start since returning from the Injured List. The right-handed veteran, Chris Bassitt, will be looking to even the series and hold the Jays’ lead over the Boston Red Sox (65-52).
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| 6:10 P.M. | Los Angeles | ||
| LF | Schneider | DH | Ohtani (L) |
| 2B | Clement | SS | Betts |
| DH | Guerrero Jr. | 1B | Freeman (L) |
| SS | Bichette | 3B | Muncy (L) |
| C | Kirk | RF | T. Hernández |
| 1B | France | CF | Pages |
| CF | Varsho (L) | LF | Conforto (L) |
| 3B | Kennedy | 2B | Freeland (S) |
| RF | Straw | C | Rushing (L) |
| P | Bassitt (R) | P | Snell (L) |
The offense still wasn’t entirely sharp, as Betts and Shohei Ohtani combined for five of the Dodgers’ seven hits. The plate discipline and general approach for the entirety of the offense was much better however, drawing six walks while striking out just seven times. This is a huge improvement compared to their performance over the last month. That type of approach has been the identity of the Dodgers over the course of their sustained success. Work counts, don’t chase, pass the baton, and slug. The sooner they get back to that, the higher the likelihood they hold off the San Diego Padres (64-52) in the NL West. Max Muncy moves up to the cleanup spot with Will Smith having the day off, while Dalton Rushing starts behind the plate. Alex Freeland continues to impress with his defense and at-bat quality, and will get another start at second base.
Meanwhile, the Jays love to swing which has worked out incredibly well for them this year. They make a ton of contact, leading baseball in both general contact rate (81.2%) and contact rate outside of the strike zone (64.5%). The issue with swinging so much and making so much contact outside of the zone, is that generally contact outside of the zone is weak contact. Of 160 qualified hitters, in contact rate outside of the zone, Aaron Judge (34.1%) is 159th, Eugenio Suárez (37.4%) is 157th, Kyle Schwarber (40.2%) is 153rd, and Ohtani (43.0%) is 144th. Probably something noteworthy about that, albeit there are many avenues toward success at the plate. The danger with a contact heavy approach, is that if guys like Kershaw are pitching on the edges and outside of the zone, it oftentimes leads to limited walks, low pitch counts, and quick innings. This is how Snell likes to pitch, so in theory he’ll get to pitch exactly how he likes.
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Toronto’s offense has been great, but when Snell is on, nobody likes pitching on the edges and outside the zone more than him. I’ll attach a small excerpt from the game thread before his previous outing against the Rays.
Snell has grown a reputation for really locking in during the second half of the season, riding that ability to his second Cy Young award in 2023, in addition to his five-year deal this past offseason. Last year he dealt with a groin injury early in the season, but dominated once returning, with a 1.23 ERA, 1.77 FIP, a 0.78 WHIP, just a .123 batting average allowed, and 114 strikeouts to 30 walks across 80.1 innings pitched. Hopefully he can replicate that this year and into the postseason.
He looked fantastic in his first start back despite the three earned runs, going five innings with eight strikeouts and no walks, generating 19 whiffs in just 82 pitches. Yandy Diaz hit homers in both the first and third innings to the incredibly short porch in right field, both flyouts at nearly every other park. Snell will look to build off that outing against a Jays’ offense that had been excellent heading into this series.
Bassitt has had a solid year for Toronto, racking up 11 wins on the best team in the American League thus far. He has a 4.12 ERA, 3.99 FIP, and a 1.31 WHIP over 129.0 innings, with 126 strikeouts to just 33 walks. It’s also been a bit of a strange season despite the quality results, as he has a 2.56 ERA at home, compared to a 6.45 ERA on the road. He also had a stellar start to the year, with a 0.77 ERA through his first four starts and 23.1 innings, but has posted a 4.85 ERA, 4.63 FIP, and a 1.36 WHIP in his 19 starts since. He was great against the Royals his last time out, allowing just one earned run over six innings on just one hit and three walks.
What he has been, is durable and reliable. He’s missed only a handful of starts over the past four seasons, with the eighth most innings pitched since 2021. Depending on the market he has this offseason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dodgers interested in him in some capacity due to his ability to take the mound every fifth day while giving his team a chance to win. You probably don’t want him starting a playoff game early in a series at this point, but he’s a tremendous help getting there for any team struggling for innings.
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Roki Sasaki seems to be on track to return within a month or so. He might be a better candidate for the bullpen down the stretch simply due to the strength of the rotation at the moment, but we’ll see as he progresses throughout his rehab process.
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The rotation is such a strength right now, the Dodgers just need to do whatever they can to make it to October healthy.
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First pitch is at 6:10 PT on SNLA.
