Reds @ Dodgers – NLWCS Game 1: Blake Snell looks to start the playoffs strong for the Dodgers against Hunter Greene, roster decisions sees Conforto & Banda left off

The regular season is finally over and for the first time under this playoff format, the Dodgers (93-69) have to play in a three-game Wild Card series. They ended the season strong with a 6-1 win in Seattle on Sunday to end the season on a five-game winning streak and won the division by three games over the Padres, who begin a series in Chicago today as well.

The Dodgers play host to the six-seed in the Wild Card round, which surprisingly ended up being the Reds. Cincinnati (83-79) took advantage of a huge Mets’ing and won eight of the final 11 games to secure the final spot in the playoffs. They did lose the finale on Sunday, but the Mets were blanked by the Marlins (which is the funniest possible way to end a collapse like that) clinching a spot for the Reds.

Sam wrote a nice series preview yesterday, so I’ll just add that the Dodgers took five of six games against the Reds this season. The series in Cincinnati was close (and humid as hell), as the Dodgers took two of three but had a +1 run differential in the three games. They met in LA a month later and the Dodgers swept and scored more runs in each game (7, 6 and 5) than the Reds scored in the series (4).

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6:08 P.M. Los Angeles
CF Friedl (L) DH Ohtani (L)
RF Marte SS Betts
DH Andujar 1B Freeman (L)
LF Hays 3B Muncy (L)
1B Steer RF T. Hernández
SS De La Cruz (S) 2B Edman (S)
C Stephenson CF Pages
3B Hayes LF K. Hernández
2B McLain C Rortvedt (L)
P Greene (R) P Snell (L)

Blake Snell gets the ball in Game 1 for the Dodgers. Snell only made 11 starts after missing four months with a shoulder issue, but the Dodgers did mostly get second-half Snell. He started the Dodgers’ domestic Opening Day and allowed two runs through five innings and made his next start against Atlanta, allowing no earned runs in four innings but he did allow five unearned after a pair of Max Muncy errors. He was dealing with shoulder pain after that and ended up making his next start in August. He made nine starts over the last couple months and was pretty dominant, with a 2.41 ERA/2.31 FIP and 68 strikeouts with only 18 walks in 52 1/3 innings. Four of those nine starts were scoreless and he struck out double-digits three times.

He started September with his worst start of the season, allowing five runs and nine hit over five innings to the Pirates. After that, he was absolutely nails. He tossed back-to-back shutouts against the Rockies and Phillies, striking out 11 Rockies in six innings and 12 Phillies in seven. His season ended last Wednesday in Arizona, where he allowed a run on five hits in six innings. Snell missed both series against the Reds this season, but had a pretty memorable start in Cincinnati last season for the Giants. He completed more than eight innings for the first time in his career (shoutout Kevin Cash), and did so in his first career no-hitter with 11 strikeouts (but three walks). Snell’s made 12 appearances (10 starts) in the postseason in his career and has a 3.33 ERA in 48 2/3 innings.

Despite being in a tight race to end the season, the Reds are lined up nicely with their top arms set to go in this series. Hunter Greene gets the start in Game 1 after finishing up the season with a 2.76 ERA in 107 2/3 innings. Greene missed a couple months with a groin strain, but allowed more than three earned runs in only two of his 19 starts this season (one of which was in Oakland’s minor league park). Greene turned in one of the best starts by any pitcher a couple weeks ago against the Cubs, allowing one hit and one walk over nine shutout with nine strikeouts. It was his second one-hit outings of September, as he also allowed one hit through seven against the Mets with 12 strikeouts. Greene did struggle a bit in LA in late August, allowing three earned (and two unearned) and six hits in five innings with only three strikeouts. Andy Pages took Greene deep twice in that game and three times in five at-bats against him in his career.

Velocity tends to play up in the Postseason, and Greene has a whole lot of that. His 99.5 MPH average fastball is the fastest among starters and the fastest in his career, theoretically in part due to having thrown his fewest innings in his four-year career. He throws that fastball 54.2 percent of the time, and opponents have a .199 average and .332 slugging (expected numbers .215 and .389) off it. He’s also thrown a slider 35 percent of the time that averages 89.7 MPH. It’s his go-to out pitch, with only a .156 average off it and a 46.9 percent whiff rate. However, seven of the 15 homers he’s allowed this season came off the slider. His third pitch is a splitter, with 10.8 percent overall usage but an 18 percent usage rate against lefties. It’s gotten hammered this season, with a .310 average against and .655 slugging against (expected numbers .319 and .490). When he faced the Dodgers, he averaged 100.3 on the fastball and got that up to 102.2.

See those two yellow dots in the middle? Those are the two Pages homers. Greene left two sliders there, and Pages extremely did not miss them.

Muncy returns to the lineup after missing the final four games of the season. Tommy Edman gets his first start in the field in almost a week at second, and Enrique Hernandez gets the start in left against a righty. Ben Rortvedt starts behind the plate. Elly De La Cruz drops down to hit sixth in the order for the Reds, which felt surprising but apparently he’s been hitting between fifth and seventh for the last couple weeks. He struggled heavily against lefties this season (.618 OPS against lefties, .848 against righties).


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The Dodgers announced their postseason roster with quite a few surprises. Will Smith is on the roster, as are Justin Dean and Hyeseong Kim. Anthony Banda and Michael Conforto were left off.

It’s a bit of a surprise to leave Conforto off, as the Dodgers go with Dean for speed option off the bench. October Kiké gets the start in left after heating up in Seattle. Banda is also a bit of a surprise, but the Dodgers roll with only 11 pitchers and already have Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Justin Wrobleski and Jack Dreyer as lefties in the pen for this best-of-three series. Rortvedt starts behind the plate today and is expected to be the primary catcher, but Smith should be available as a pinch-hitter. They haven’t ruled out Smith getting the start tomorrow.

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First pitch is scheduled for 6:08 PM PT and will be on ESPN.

About Alex Campos

I've been writing about the Dodgers since I graduated from Long Beach State, where I covered the Dirtbags in my senior year. I'm either very good or very bad at puns.