Let’s talk about Emmet Sheehan’s velocity

In the day of velocity reigning king, it’s odd to see most pitchers not slinging mid-to-high-90s heat all the time. The Dodgers definitely have no shortage when it comes to that.

Emmet Sheehan is no exception — or so we thought. The 26-year-old righty’s velocity has been a topic of discussion — dating back to Spring Training, when his fastball velocity was noticeably down.

Emmet Sheehan had issues maintaining his stuff and command in spring, something they attributed to some mechanical stuff he was working through.

Related: here is Sheehan's fastball velocity by inning tonight. pic.twitter.com/CT6mruhNvf

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) March 28, 2026

In his first start of the season last night, he averaged 94 MPH on his fastball, down 0.1 MPH from his Spring Training average. That’s down from the 95.6 MPH he averaged last season in the majors. It was also down from the 96.3 MPH he averaged in the postseason, but he did do that as a reliever, not as a starter, so a velo bump was to be expected.

An average fastball velocity of 94 isn’t bad by any means, but when it’s down 1.6 MPH from the previous season, it’s going to raise some eyebrows.

Sheehan had Tommy John surgery on May 15, 2024. He missed 13 months before returning in June of last year. When he returned, the velo returned as well. In fact, his velocity was not an issue until March of this year.

How big of a concern is Emmet Sheehan's velocity?

In 2025, he threw six pitches all season under 94 MPH (and zero below 93).

Tonight, Sheehan has thrown eight pitches under 94 MPH (and two of them below 93).

???

— Jeff Spiegel (@JeffSpiegel) March 28, 2026

That’s not great, no matter what mechanical issues he may or may not be working on.

Here is his velocity chart from all starts from the 2025 season through his four 2026 Spring Training starts and last night’s start.

A clear decline in velocity, even with the outlier 91 MPH pitch on the left side. Something’s up. Let’s hope it’s mechanical and not health-related.

——

The average recovery time from TJ is 12-14 months, so the 13-month absence is right in line. What’s interesting is Sheehan’s workload since turning pro. He was drafted in the 6th round of the 2021 MLB Draft out of Boston College. Despite being mostly a starting pitcher in his college and pro career, Sheehan’s career-best in innings pitched is 100 2/3, which came last season when you combine his innings in the minors, majors and the postseason. Previously, his best was 76 2/3 with Boston College in his draft year of 2021.

Sheehan hasn’t had a heavy workload as a pro. It remains to be seen if he can sustain his velocity deep enough into games to be a more traditional starting pitcher. The Dodgers know better than me (or any of us), but the results seem to indicate that could be a problem for him going forward. With Roki Sasaki facing a similar issue — is he a reliever or starter? — the Dodgers’ starting rotation could start to thin out a bit, because there’s no doubt Sheehan has an MLB arm. It just might be as a reliever. If he does have to move to the bullpen, the sky’s the limit. He has incredible swing-and-miss stuff, can sit in the mid-90s with his fastball as a reliever and we know how volatile bullpen arms can be.

It’s too early to truly make this declaration. It might also be a little too early to be overly concerned about the declined velocity. The Dodgers will attempt to make Sheehan work as a starting pitcher. If he cannot maintain his velocity deeper into games, he and the Dodgers have an excellent fallback option.