Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers are trading for two-time reigning AL Cy Young Award winning left-handed starting pitcher Tarik Skubal from the Tigers in exchange for right-handed starter River Ryan, outfield prospect Zyhir Hope, and right-handed pitcher Brady Smith. It’s the blockbuster deal that Dodgers fans have been hoping for as they go for their three-peat, and that basically every other team and fanbase have been dreading (at least the Tigers improve their future outlook). Cue the wailing and gnashing of teeth over it.
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Los Angeles Dodgers Acquire LHP Tarik Skubal
Most people are probably familiar with Skubal by now, who is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, coming off back-to-back AL Cy Young Awards in 2024 and 2025. Over the last three seasons in 484 innings for 78 starts, he has a 2.40 ERA/2.50 FIP including 585 K/82 BB for a stellar 26.8% K/BB%. Pure ace-level stuff.
The wrinkle here is that on May 6 he had surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow, though thanks to new technology was able to return in under six weeks on June 13. In his seven games prior to the surgery, he threw 43.1 innings of 2.70 ERA/2.11 FIP ball with 45 strikeouts and six walks for a 23.5 K/BB%. In the nine games since returning, he’s thrown 53.1 innings of 2.87 ERA/3.00 FIP ball with 71 K strikeouts and eight walks for a 30.3 K/BB%. Most importantly, after showing signs of rust in four June starts (4.03 ERA/5.02 FIP), he has been back to his dominating self over five July starts (2.03 ERA/1.55 FIP). Any worries about the stuff can also be put aside, as his metrics on all his pitches look nearly identical since his return, so it seemed like the surgery worked and he’s just back to normal.
Skubal is obviously a rental on a $32 million deal for this year before likely trying to get like half a billion dollars in the off-season, and maybe dealing for him now gives the Dodgers a head start on that as well. Regardless, he gives the Dodgers another ace for their playoff rotation and insurance against the shaky health track records of Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow. And if they’re all healthy? Well, that’s arguably one of the greatest rotations ever and puts them in as good of a position possible to win their third consecutive World Series.
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Tigers Acquire RHP River Ryan, OF Zyhir Hope, RHP Brady Smith
River Ryan is a 28-year-old “prospect” that made an impressive MLB debut in 2024 and then needed Tommy John surgery, and has high-end stuff but also suffered two hamstring injuries this year in the minors. The upside is a front-line starter, and he showed that potential in his 2024 cameo, but there’s just so many question marks around his development/availability that it’s a bit of a mystery as to whether he’ll ever be able to fulfill that promise. The upside shouldn’t be questioned, but he’s thrown 233 innings total in five years now and never more than 104.1. Still, as soon as he recovers from the hamstring injury, he can be put into the rotation and should be able to contribute immediately.
The prospects start off with Zyhir Hope, who is a slugging 21-year-old outfielder that’s a consensus Top 50 prospect, and closer to Top 25. He has progressed through the minor-league system quickly, and has broken out in his first year at AA, slashing .293/.369/.530/.899 while improving contact rates. He has only reinforced his upside as an All-Star level outfielder and at least a slugging corner outfield regular.
Brady Smith is a lesser-known prospect, who is also 21 and has pitched across two A-ball levels this year, putting up a 4.36 ERA in 21 starts, but striking out a whopping 113 in 74.1 innings compared to just 30 walks. MLB Pipeline has him as the #17 prospect in a strong system, with a 93-96 MPH fastball, cutter, slider, curve, and his out-pitch with a changeup. He was Rule 5 Draft eligible this off-season, so it helps that issue in the off-season as well. Probably more of a flier of a prospect in this deal, but one with a eye-popping whiff numbers.
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This is honestly surprisingly light for the Tigers, as despite the fact that they’re almost assuredly going to win any trade going away in terms of value, it just feels that way for the Dodgers because Ryan is constantly hurt, older, and on the outside looking in for the rotation, Hope is great but they have literally three other teams of outfield prospect, and Smith would’ve been at risk in the off-season anyway. I actually think there’s a quite good chance that the return looks better for the Tigers than people currently believe, as at least Ryan and Hope are legit, it’s just that it doesn’t really matter to the Dodgers.
There’s really no other way to put this other than it’s a dream scenario for the Dodgers. With questions about the health of the rotation, they had arguably the best pitcher in baseball to the front of it, and potentially can roll out Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Wrobleski, and Roki Sasaki in some form in the playoffs. It’s arguably one of the greatest collections of starting talent ever, and combined with the rest of the team, they’ve maximized their chances of a three-peat.
Andrew Friedman Miracles pic.twitter.com/vQ89XQ0rAU
— Mad Choriyama (@MadChoriyama) December 22, 2023
