Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
It’s going to be a long off-season, so I figured instead of responding to everybody on social media with snap judgments and/or wordy threads, why not start turning it into #Content again? The return of the mailbag, I suppose. Probably. Maybe.
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Thinking about a Yoshinobu Yamamoto extension and Roki Sasaki‘s progress
On Roki Sasaki, I definitely think the performance has been relatively disappointing. He’s both been injured and ineffective for most of his MLB career to this point, and he’s almost certainly been more of a project than the Dodgers anticipated. That said, he just turned 25 and after the All-Star break this year he legit was producing like a borderline front-line starter (2.83 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.46 xFIP/3.52 xERA), validated by an uptick in velocity and significant gains in his stuff grades. If he comes out throwing like that in 2027 and can sustain it, the existing questions surrounding him will start to go away in a hurry, though his lack of consistency to this point makes that a big “if”. Regardless, from a practical perspective, they definitely don’t win a ring in 2025 without his contributions in relief, so he’s been a huge win already in that sense.
As far as Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s contract goes, the Dodgers have at least three more seasons with him, as his opt-out hits after 2029 if there’s no right elbow injury. I don’t think they’re likely to rush an extension if they don’t have to, as injury risk leading to massive decline is always looming over the heads of pitchers. That said, if he continues along the current path, then extension talks after 2027 or (more likely) 2028 do seem inevitable, and Yamamoto might end up getting something like the Gerrit Cole deal after accounting for inflation. There’s obviously risk in doling out lengthy, big money contracts to pitchers after 30 in particular, but Yoshi has yet to have Tommy John surgery (knock on wood), which lessens the risk of a hypothetical future UCL injury being a career ender (like it could be for Shohei Ohtani, for example). He also seems like the type of pitcher who could find a way to be an above-average guy with pure pitchability into his late-30s even as his stuff diminishes, so there might be less reservation to give him a deal that takes him into those years. Feels like it could make sense for both sides when/if we all get to that point.
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The Pedro Guerrero hiring leading to an Otto Lopez & Xavier Edwards pursuit
Indeed, there are reports that both Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards from the Marlins could be available in a trade. And indeed, Pedro Guerrero worked with both on the Marlins. However, I doubt he’s going to be relevant in terms of whether or not the Dodgers trade for one of them. Obviously, he would have insight on the duo that nobody else on staff would, but I don’t think the front office had them in mind at all when they made the decision.
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Mauricio Dubon looks something close to a perfect fit
Yeah, good timing with this question, as Mauricio Dubon is one of the guys the Dodgers are reportedly looking at, while Dustin already covered the other in Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
The 32-year-old Dubon spent his first four years as a true bench guy, getting a couple hundred plate appearances a year and mostly filling in at short, second, and center, with cameos at third and the outfield corners. While he slashed a paltry .244/.287/.366/.653 for an 80 OPS+, his defensive quality and versatility kept him rostered.
In 2023, he started to get his first shot at real playing time with 400-600 plate appearances a year as more of a superutility guy, and he responded by hitting better at a .268/.306/.385/.690 clip for a 92 OPS+ despite increased exposure. He continued to largely play the same positions as before — though he added first to his defensive resume — and continued to grade out well defensively. The Dodgers would likely have him play a lot of second base and left field, so him specifically being close to a double-plus defender at both of those positions also works to his advantage here.
It’s been a solid 2-2.5 WAR profile over the last four seasons, but being able to handle every position except pitcher and catcher makes that more valuable, and it also sorta makes him catnip for Andrew Friedman. Additionally, if the Dodgers can protect his matchups, he hits lefties better than righties (.740/.654) for his career, though that has narrowed in the last four seasons as he’s improved overall (.720/.678). While Dubon doesn’t walk much (4.9%), he also doesn’t strike out much (12.4%), and will take what the pitcher gives him by spraying the ball to all fields.
Most contract projections have him getting two years and between $16-20MM, which seems reasonable as a veteran superutility that’s also a stopgap/insurance option at second base, hovering around the existing trio of Alex Freeland, Hyeseong Kim, and fellow superutility Tommy Edman. I don’t think it would be a move that would get fans excited, but Dubon does have the kind of profile the front office loves and he fits the team’s needs surprisingly well.
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Since I might actually stop being lazy and make this feature a thing, feel free to shoot me questions to be answered on Twitter (DM also fine), on Bluesky (same), or by sending an e-mail (say it’s for the mailbag). Or if nobody cares what I think, that is also valid.
