Dodgers Digest - Los Angeles Dodgers baseball blog

Fifth Starter Day: Good For Maholm, Less So For Beckett

Posted on March 8, 2014 by Mike Petriello Leave a reply

Josh Beckett faced 14 batters tonight against Seattle. Seven reached base, and while that’s bad, look at it this way: only four stayed there! …because three (Jesus Montero, Stefen Romero, and Justin Smoak) crushed dingers and needed only to jog lightly around the bases. Extrapolated over a full season, that puts him on pace for approximately 382,918 homers allowed. (Roughly.)

That’s pretty terrible, though of course the normal spring training caveats do apply, and Beckett told SNLA’s Alanna Rizzo after his outing that he was attempting to work on his fastball. And really, that’s the kind of thing that’s so easy to forget about spring training. It’s about the work, not the outcome. In a game that counts, you would pay more attention to the scouting report, attacking a hitter’s weakness. In March, you want to get your work in, and if the ball lands 400 feet away, well, so be it.

Usually, anyway. We can brush off lousy Clayton Kershaw starts pretty easily, and we have. If this were 2007-era Beckett, we’d do the same. Of course, this Beckett is 33, coming off a lost season, and at least theoretically battling Paul Maholm for a rotation spot — and it’s hard not to notice that a few hours before Beckett got lit up, Maholm struck out four Rangers over three innings, allowing a single run.

This was only the second outing of the spring for each pitcher, and so obviously not all that much should be read into it. Still, Beckett can’t afford lousy games like Kershaw can, and this isn’t likely to quiet any questions about that last starter spot.

***

The good news! Joc Pederson arguably had two homers tonight himself, though one turned into a double when it was uncertain whether it had actually gone out or not. Either way, he hit the ball off the end of the bat and still basically got it out of the park, and so we’ll look past the defensive miscommunication that let a ball drop, which had it been caught, may have averted a Beckett homer (since the inning may have ended). Dee Gordon reached twice and stole twice — that’s seven for seven this spring — while looking like far more of a second baseman than he ever did a shortstop.

Via Chad, here’s that Pederson blast:

GIF Link

YES PLEASE.

Matt Kemp could see game action soon, says Don Mattingly

Posted on March 8, 2014 by Chad Moriyama Leave a reply

Matt Kemp could soon return to game action for the Dodgers, according to manager Don Mattingly (via Ken Gurnick).

“I think that’s fair to say,” Mattingly said when asked if Kemp’s intensifying workouts were a sign that game action could soon follow.

Kemp, recovering from serious ankle surgery, has begun to run and make turns, although not yet on the bases. He also has resumed tracking fly balls in the outfield. He has been taking batting practice and throwing throughout Spring Training. He will start the season on the disabled list.

“We’re seeing him take fly balls, getting jumps,” said Mattingly. “He’s swinging the bat good. It won’t be long before he’s in a game.”

	Dodgers (ss)		Mariners
	6:05pm PT		Phoenix, Ariz.
2B	Gordon	CF	Almonte
LF	Crawford	3B	Seager
SS	Ramirez	SS	Franklin
RF	Van Slyke	DH	Smoak
1B	Robinson	1B	Montero
3B	Uribe	LF	Romero
CF	Pederson	RF	Jones
C	Federowicz	2B	Triunfel
DH	Guerrero	C	Quintero
P	Beckett	P	Beavan

Understandably though, as they’ve done all off-season, Dodgers management has refused to set a timetable or raise expectations on his return.

Mattingly, however, wouldn’t say if the club will see Kemp in a game before the team flight to Australia on March 16.

“I don’t put that kind of timetable on it,” he said. “As long as he’s moving forward.”

It makes sense and jives with the off-season company line regarding Kemp’s health, which has been basically to not rush proceedings via media quotes under any circumstances.

Timetable or not, it’s the first indication the Dodgers have given that we could soon see Kemp on the field again, and it certainly represents a positive step forward in the rehab process.

=====

Also of note in terms of injury, Zack Greinke threw 34 pitches in a BP session today and felt “pretty good.”

Most importantly, it led to this assessment of his current speed.

“I could field now,” he said. “If I had to beat Dee (Gordon) to first base from the mound, Dee would beat me. If it was A.J. Ellis, I still might not, but I’d probably beat him.”

Poor A.J. Ellis.

Finally, Yasiel Puig was excused today to deal with a “personal matter.” No details on that were revealed.

Brian Wilson and the occasional knuckleball pitcher

Posted on March 8, 2014 by Chad Moriyama Leave a reply

After unveiling his new knuckleball in his first appearance of the spring, Brian Wilson followed it up with two more yesterday to two different and puzzled Rangers hitters.

GIF Link

	Dodgers (ss)		Rangers
	12:05pm PT		Surprise, Ariz.
2B	Figgins	LF	Choo
RF	Pederson	SS	Rosales
1B	Gonzalez	1B	Fielder
CF	Ethier	3B	Kouzmanoff
C	Ellis	DH	Moreland
DH	Olivo	C	Arenciba
SS	Turner	RF	Adduci
LF	Baxter	CF	Choice
3B	Harris	2B	Wilson
P	Maholm	P	Scheppers

After seeing that appearance yesterday, it’s a lot more likely that he’s practicing it for actual usage during the regular season, which would put him on a rather rare list of pitchers.

The recent history (since 2007) of non-knuckleballers throwing the knuckleball is very short. Eddie Bonine used the pitch the most when he worked it into his repertoire with the Tigers (232 Times), Ryan Franklin sparingly used one in relief with the Cardinals (26 Times), Manny Parra of the Brewers “fooled around” with a knuckler seven times (an even rarer lefty knuckler), and Livan Hernandez threw it once with the Mets (because of course he did).

What does it mean? I don’t know. There’s so little history of it, and it’s especially weird for a guy who put up a closer worthy season and still has closer worthy stuff to debut the pitch.

In the tiny sample size we’ve been able to see thus far, Wilson appears to have a decent grasp for command of the pitch, and the knuckler has had consistent late movement down and in to a righty. So like with Vicente Padilla‘s “soap bubble”, it might just work if not overused.

Hanley Ramirez Did An Unreasonable Thing to Martin Perez

Posted on March 7, 2014 by Mike Petriello Leave a reply

Just look at what Hanley Ramirez did to Texas’ Martin Perez today:

Good lord. Spring training and all that, and to be fair, Ramirez honestly hadn’t done a whole lot early in spring before this. (He’d had two singles and a walk in 17 plate appearances, I say as though I care.) So no, we’re not putting a ton of importance on a single homer. Still, Perez is a pretty good young pitcher, and that ball was absolutely destroyed.

I don’t think it’s overstating it to say that Ramirez was the single most important player in the Dodger lineup last year. Obviously, Matt Kemp‘s lost season was a killer, but this team has outfield depth. And you could argue that A.J. Ellis, though far less flashy, is nearly as irreplaceable given the depth behind him. But I think we all saw how different this lineup looked with and without a healthy Ramirez in 2013, particularly in the NLCS, when he struggled to answer the bell after a Joe Kelly fastball broke his ribs. It’s not overstating it to say that it’s absolutely critical that he remain healthy, especially with Nick Punto in Oakland. If Gordon isn’t even an option at all at shortstop any longer, a Ramirez-less world features… what? Brendan Harris? Justin Turner?

I don’t even want to think about it. Neither do you. I just want to watch Ramirez destroying baseballs on a continuous loop, and I just might do that.

***

As for the rest of the game — don’t know the score, don’t care — Zach Lee made his spring debut and got through two scoreless innings, and we finally got to get a look at Tom Windle, last year’s second pick, who finished it off with two scoreless of his own. In between, most of the regular bullpen looked pretty good, other than Brandon League, who will now forever be known as “it could have been worse,” which is how Charley Steiner put it. I’m not sure how, I guess. Maybe we’ll find out.

Zach Lee set to make 2014 Cactus League debut

Posted on March 7, 2014 by Dustin Nosler Leave a reply

Zach Lee will pitch in LA in 2014. (By: Dustin Nosler)

Much has been made about Zach Lee since the Dodgers selected him 28th overall in the 2010 MLB Draft — a pick most thought was a punt because of Lee’s signability concerns.

Lee ended up signing a $5.25 million bonus — the largest for any Dodger draftee ever. Now here here we are, 3 1/2 years later and he’s ready to make some noise in Dodgers’ spring training. The only problem is, his debut has been delayed by a lat injury he suffered after at the Dodgers’ Winter Development Program in January.

He survived the first round of cuts, despite not being on the 40-man roster. He makes his first spring training start today against his hometown Texas Rangers (Lee is from McKinney, Texas, roughly 50 miles from where the Rangers play).

SportsNet LA’s John Hartung sat down with Lee to chat — something that Lee hasn’t done a whole lot of since turning pro. It’s a really good interview and gives an insight to a player not many fans know a ton about. I ran into him last season at Camelback Ranch and in the few minutes I talked to him, he seemed like a focused kid who works hard, and this interview does nothing to make think otherwise.

	Rangers		Dodgers
	12:05pm PT		Glendale, Ariz.
LF	Choo	RF	Figgins
SS	Andrus	LF	Crawford
1B	Moreland	SS	Ramirez
3B	Beltre	1B	Van Slyke
RF	Choice	CF	Ethier
2B	Parrino	3B	Uribe
DH	Profar	C	Federowicz
C	Chirinos	DH	Ellis
CF	Martin	2B	Gordon
P	Perez	P	Lee

Lee clearly wants to win a spot in the Dodgers’ crowded rotation. With Ross Stripling set to miss the 2014 season with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow, Lee is the best and closest Dodger pitching prospect to the majors. But his aspirations of cracking the starting five in Los Angeles — at least to start the season — doesn’t look great. The Dodgers having six legitimate starting pitchers and two more pitchers in Triple-A who have MLB experience already (Stephen Fife ad Matt Magill), but Lee could still be the first young pitcher recalled if the Dodgers happen to need a starter for an extended period of time. It doesn’t make sense for him to come up in any other situation.

Here’s what I wrote about Lee in my Top 50 prospects series:

“Lee has a fastball that sits in the 89-92 MPH range and touches 95 MPH at times. He can cut and sink it to get outs as well. His best secondary pitch is a low-80s slider, which features inconsistent two-plane break. It flashes plus at times, but he can get under it at times. He also has a changeup that has above-average potential. It’s also a low-80s pitch and he gets good downward movement against left-handers. Lee also has a curveball he uses less than the other two secondary offerings that is an average pitch. His delivery is smooth and repeatable. Combine his repertoire, poise, athleticism and pitchability, and there’s a No. 3 or 4 starter there.”

As long as folks don’t think Lee is an ace, ala Clayton Kershaw, the numbers he puts up in his career will probably make him $10-12 million per season — a long way of saying he should be a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Lee isn’t expected to throw a lot in his spring debut, so get a look at him while you can. He’s likely destined for Albuquerque, even if Chris Jackson disagrees. Lee will make his debut this season, but let’s hope it comes late in the season, rather than early.

Longtime Dodger doctor Frank Jobe dies at age 88

Posted on March 6, 2014 by Dustin Nosler Leave a reply

The Dodgers’ family lost one of its longest-tenured members on Thursday in Dr. Frank Jobe, who died in his Santa Monica home at the age of 88.

Jobe was a member of the Dodgers’ organization beginning in 1964, and he was also associated — early in his career — with the then Los Angeles Rams and Lakers.

Jobe’s greatest accomplishment came in 1974, when he performed the first ligament replacement surgery for players who blew out their elbows — otherwise known as Tommy John surgery. Sure, someone probably would have come up with this idea sooner or later, but Jobe pioneered this trailblazing procedure that has extended the careers of many a pitcher.

This man (Tommy John) would be far less famous if not for Dr. Frank Jobe. (via)

Tommy John was quoted in the Dodgers’ press release:

“‘Baseball lost a great man and Tommy John lost a great friend. There are a lot of pitchers in baseball who should celebrate his life and what he did for the game of baseball. My deepest condolences and prayers go out to Beverly (Jobe) and the entire family. He’s going to be missed.’”

From the Dodgers’ official press release:

“‘Frank Jobe is a Hall of Famer in every sense of the word,’ said Dodger President Stan Kasten. ‘His dedication and professionalism in not only helping the Dodgers, but athletes around the world is unparalleled. He was a medical giant and pioneer and many athletes in the past and the future can always thank Frank for finding a way to continue their careers.’”

Damn right, Stan. I mean, how is the inventor of the TJ procedure not in the Hall of Fame? He’s done more for the game than plenty of the people — players and otherwise — who have been inducted.

Jobe is survived by his wife Beverly, his four sons and their spouses, and eight grandchildren. Rest in peace, Dr. Jobe. Baseball wouldn’t be what it is today without your brilliance and innovation.

Josh Beckett’s Mechanics And Surgery Recovery

Posted on March 6, 2014 by Daniel Brim Leave a reply

We're pretty sure he's going to be on the roster... right?

An unexpected boost?

	Dodgers		Angels
	12.05 p.m. PT		Tempe, Az.
CF	Puig	RF	Calhoun
C	Ellis	CF	Trout
SS	Ramirez	3B	Freese
1B	Gonzalez	DH	Ibanez
LF	Van Slyke	2B	Kendrick
DH	Ethier	LF	Shuck
2B	Turner	1B	Pena
RF	Baxter	C	Iannetta
3B	Figgins	SS	Aybar
P	Haren	P	Wilson

This winter, I did a study on pitchers recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, the same surgery that Josh Beckett had last year. The results were not pretty and were cause for pessimism about his potential contributions this season. As a result, it has been surprising to hear nothing but optimism about Beckett so far during spring training. Or, at least it was, until we saw his first game.

Before we saw Beckett pitch live, Mark Saxon wrote the following:

Beckett, who had a small bone removed between his right shoulder and neck to relieve nerve irritation known as thoracic outlet syndrome, said he continues to worry that the numbness he had been experiencing in his fingers before the surgery will return. It hasn’t so far. In fact, he feels the surgery has allowed him to throw from a higher arm angle, getting more downward thrust on his pitches.

We’ve heard things like that from several sources over the past few weeks, so let’s look into it. Because I’m a nerd, the first thing I did was check the data from Brooks:

Beckett’s release point has indeed been drifting downwards since 2011, though his release point last season was pretty close to what it was in 2009, one of the best years of his career. His horizontal release point has been drifting as well.

Given the quotes and the Brooks charts, can we see any visible changes between Beckett in the past and Beckett last season? The below GIF shows two Beckett deliveries at 1/4 speed. The left was on May 7th, 2013 (the game before his last that season). The right is from June 9th, 2011. I chose these games because Yankee Stadium and Dodger Stadium have similar center field cameras and Beckett was very good in 2011. Both pitches are fastballs with the bases empty to left-handed batters.

GIF Link

There are a few visible differences between the deliveries. Beckett’s glove is higher in the Dodger GIF, both when set and when he breaks his hands. His leg kick is a bit higher on the Red Sox GIF. The overall pacing of the deliveries is almost identical. However, contrary to the data from Brooks, the release points don’t look very different. What happens if we pause at the release point and bring the two images closer together?

Even on the image to the left, the release points look very similar. However, there appears to be a pretty significant difference in posture between the 2011 image and the 2013 image. Beckett’s head is lower and his body is slightly turned, to a magnitude beyond what would be caused by the different center field camera angles.

The difference in release points can be explained a few ways. First of all, the difference between Beckett’s average fastball release point in June 2011 and May 2013 is only 3.5 inches. Sometimes it’s easy to forget the relative scale on Brooks figures. There was also a tad more variance in Beckett’s release point before the injury, though not as much as I would have expected.

So, between 2011 and 2013 there is a visible difference in Beckett’s mechanics that might have had an impact on his performance. Now that Beckett has pitched this spring, has anything changed back?

During his start on Sunday, Beckett’s results were great. Orel Hershiser made the following observation during the broadcast:

The number one thing that I’m noticing with Josh is how comfortable he is with his mechanics. His arm slot is a lot higher. He used to miss arm side high and kind of drop his elbow and come underneath the ball. Now he’s getting through the ball and driving it downhill.

That matches up with what Saxon reported 11 days before the start. To get a better look, I’ve added Beckett’s first spring start into the delivery comparison GIF:

GIF Link - click for larger

If anything, Beckett’s set and glove pat are higher than they were last season. His leg kick looks nearly identical to the 2013 delivery as well.

When I added Sunday’s start to the release point overlay, the first thing I noticed is that the release point appears to be lower, contrary to what we’ve heard. There’s a few things that can explain this. First is that the center field camera at Camelback Ranch is quite different than Dodger and Yankee stadiums. Additionally, in the Red Sox delivery the ball has left Beckett’s hand, while it’s still in Beckett’s hand in the spring training image. The stills are probably about quarter of a frame (.01 seconds) apart. 0.1 seconds at 90 miles per hour is over a foot of travel, so that kind of delay makes a pretty big difference.

Even if the release point appears lower, Beckett does appear to be more upright and his body is turned slightly less. His head is slightly higher, and his arm seems further extended from his body. The camera angle might be helping to exaggerate these impacts, but they do appear to be present.

One flaw in this kind of study is that it doesn’t look at repeatability. But, from these small glimpses into Beckett’s mechanics, I’m encouraged. If Beckett continues to pitch as well as he did in his first spring training start, and he continues to not feel discomfort, he’ll slot into the rotation at the conclusion of spring training and potentially be a nice boost to the pitching staff.

—

Today’s spring training game doesn’t have any surprises in the line-up, but last year’s first-round draft pick Chris Anderson will be traveling with the team and there’s a good chance that he’ll be used in the later innings. Yasiel Puig is also back in the line-up after leaving yesterday’s game with an inflamed back.

Projected 2017 Dodgers’ pitching staff

Posted on March 5, 2014 by Dustin Nosler Leave a reply

(Via)

If you thought projecting the 2017 lineup was tough, you haven’t seen anything yet. While you’ll recognize a lot of the names listed here, the pitching projections are a lot more unstable than the position player projections.

Without further adieu, here is who you should expect to see Opening Day 2017.

Starting Pitcher 1
If Clayton Kershaw isn’t the Dodgers’ No. 1 starter in three years, it’s highly likely he’s been abducted by aliens.

Options
Clayton Kershaw: Will be in his age-29 season and rolling around in his millions of dollars he’ll have already earned.

2017 SP 1: Kershaw

Even with the opt-out clause in his 7-year deal (after the fifth year), Kershaw will still be owed $33 million for the 2018 season, with a $65 million due the next two seasons — which will be his age-31 and 32 seasons. Odds are he’ll opt out, and the Dodgers will sign him to a new mega deal.

Starting Pitcher 2
This is a situation similar to Kershaw’s, as Greinke is clearly the second-best starting pitcher the Dodgers have now (and probably will have) in 2017.

Options
Zack Greinke: Will be 33 and will likely have been re-signed to a new contract (opt-out after 2015).
Hyun-Jin Ryu: Will be in the fifth year of a 6-year deal and entering his age-30 season.
Julio Urias: Almost preposterous to include him, seeing as he’ll be 20 years old and could conceivably be in his second full season.

	Dodgers		Reds
	6:05 p.m. PT		Goodyear, Ariz.
CF	Gordon	CF	Hamilton
DH	Crawford	2B	Phillips
RF	Puig	1B	Votto
1B	Gonzalez	LF	Ludwick
3B	Uribe	RF	Bruce
LF	Pederson	3B	Frazier
2B	Guerrero	SS	Cozart
C	Federowicz	C	Pena
SS	Rojas	DH	Duran
P	Ryu	P	Bailey

2017 SP 2: Greinke

Greinke is probably going to opt out of his deal in 2015. He’s such a good pitcher, has such good mechanics and is one of the smartest pitchers in the last 15 years that the Dodgers couldn’t possibly pass on bringing him back. He figures to age well as he doesn’t rely on elite velocity to be successful.

Starting Pitcher 3
Here’s where things get a little murky — in a good way. There are two or three guys who could realistically lay claim to this spot in the rotation.

Options
Chad Billingsley: Will be entering age-32 season and could be on a different team by this point.
Zach Lee: If he reaches his potential, this could be his spot — even in his age-25 season.
Hyun-jin Ryu: Only figures to get better; certainly doesn’t figure to get any worse.
Julio Urias: The most potential of anyone on this list.

2017 SP 3: Ryu

Ryu figures to have some really solid campaigns behind him by this point. He’s the best pitcher of the four listed above and could be one of the game’s best left-handers by 2017.

Starting Pitcher 4
This spot almost seems reserved for a certain 20-year-old, as he has some of the most pure talent in the Dodgers’ farm system.

Options
Chris Anderson: The 2013 first-rounder will be 24 and probably one of the best prospects in the system, if he’s still eligible.
Chad Billingsley: Probably on a different team by now.
Zach Lee: More likely the No. 5 starter — or a No. 3 or 4 on another team.
Ross Stripling: Will be 27, unlikely after Tommy John surgery, but still has a starter’s repertoire/build.
Julio Urias: This is his spot.

2017 SP 4: Urias

This will be just the beginning for Urias. He’ll be 20 years old and on his way up. He’ll eventually be the Dodgers’ No. 2 starter — at least, as long as Kershaw is still around.

Starting Pitcher 5
This spot will likely be filled from within the system — and could even be a player who isn’t yet a member of a Dodger (i.e. a draftee).

Options
Chris Anderson: While it’d be nice to see him make it as a starter, he could be dominant reliever.
Chad Billingsley: Love ya, Chad, but I’m sure you’ll be in Cincinnati by this time.
Zach Lee: Hoping that $5.25 million bonus pays off by this time.
Ross Stripling: Might be a reliever or with another organization.

2017 SP 5: Lee

Lee could end up being a Kyle Lohse-type, which would be a fantastic No. 5 starter in this game (at a fraction of the cost). His stuff could be average at this point and he’d still be a great No. 5 starer.

Closer
At one time, everyone thought Eric Gagne would never break down and he’d go down as one of the greatest closers ever. He had the best 3-year stretch of any reliever, but he eventually broke down. Kenley Jansen is great, but there’s a chance he could — eventually — break down. Not because of anything he has or hasn’t done, but because of the position itself.

Options
Chris Anderson: Has the arsenal to do the job, but makeup/poise are unknown.
Onelki Garcia: Has a potentially devastating 2-pitch combo that gives him a closer’s ceiling.
Kenley Jansen: Will be 29 years old and be making crazy money.
Chris Withrow: Has the best stuff of this quartet, but control/command are question marks.

2017 Closer: Jansen

Provided Jansen’s cutter is still as filthy as it is now, I don’t see him breaking down physically (as long as his heart is OK) and I see his control/command holding up just fine. But it’s nice to see the Dodgers have some legitimate options if things change dramatically in three years.

Relief Pitchers
The most volatile of any player on the baseball field, don’t expect to see a lot of veteran presents here, as the Dodgers should fill voids in the bullpen from within.

Options
Chris Anderson: Heavy fastball and slider combination should play up out of the ‘pen.
Jose Dominguez: Elite fastball velocity should be sustainable as he enters his age-26 season.
Onelki Garcia: Will be in age-26 season and could find himself traded by this time.
Yimi Garcia: Will be entering age-26 season, and despite fastball spin, lack of plus-velocity could hold him back.
J.P. Howell: Will be 34 and a free agent, likely not brought back.
Matt Magill: Will be 27 and needs to keep command/control in check to have a long-term career.
Chris Reed: Only on here because of his prospect ranking, I have no faith in him — even out of the ‘pen.
Paco Rodriguez: Should have established himself as one of the best lefty relievers in the game at age-26.
Tom Windle: Will be 25 and a cheaper option than a guy like Rodriguez.
Chris Withrow: Should start getting expensive at age-28, could be a trade candidate.

2017 RPs (6): Anderson, Dominguez, O. Garcia, Rodriguez, Windle, Withrow

Aside from Howell and, to a lesser extent, Rodriguez, these are all power arms and all should do quite well setting up the Dodgers’ 2017 closer. The only problem is, guys like Rodriguez and Withrow figure to start getting expensive — perhaps too expensive for the Dodgers (as funny as that sounds). That’s where the next tier of reliever prospects comes in — Victor Arano, Ralston Cash, Jharel Cotton, Scott Griggs, etc.

Player	Position
Clayton Kershaw	SP 1
Zack Greinke	SP 2
Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP 3
Julio Urias	SP 4
Zach Lee	SP 5
Jose Dominguez	RP
Onelki Garcia	RP
Tom Windle	RP
Chris Anderson	RP
Paco Rodriguez	RP
Chris Withrow	SU
Kenley Jansen	CL

What Baseball Prospectus’ New Framing Data Means For The Dodgers

Posted on March 5, 2014 by Daniel Brim Leave a reply

On Monday, Baseball Prospectus published an article introducing new methodology to quantify the impact of catcher framing. Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis collaborated to create the numbers, which they have been working on for most of the offseason. The analysis of pitch framing, which uses Pitch F/X data to see when a catcher “changes” a ball to a strike, has been an area of intense focus among the sabermetric analysis community. Since the analysis of the impact of framing is in its early stages, it is exciting to follow along with the development of new measurement methodologies. And, since this is a Dodgers blog, we can see how the new framing data views Dodger catchers.

First, the caveats:

1. Since the analysis of framing is so new, the magnitude of the impact of framing vary depending on who you ask. A new analysis might come out tomorrow that says that framing is worth half the magnitude or there might be other influences that this new analysis does not take into account. There’s a reason why catcher framing is not yet included in WAR or WARP.

2. BP’s summation of catcher defense does not include control of the running game, an area of strength for the Dodgers. Part of this is pitcher influenced, but catchers also have an impact. The BP catcher evaluation model also does not include anything on pitch calling or how a catcher handles a pitching staff. These are things that A.J. Ellis does well, from everything that we’ve heard.

What does Baseball Prospectus’ new framing analysis do differently than what we’ve seen before?

Previous framing analyses have assumed that all strikes which are changed to balls (and vice versa) have the same impact. This new analysis assigns an individual run value to a frame on each count. A successful frame on a 3-2 count (changing a walk to a strikeout) counts more than a successful frame on the first pitch. The run value assigned also depends on the probability that a pitch in a particular location is called a ball or a strike with “neutral” framing.

The analysis also takes other new factors into account. Based on a pitcher’s arsenal and control, their impact on a catcher’s framing can be determined. Per the article, Brandon League has the worst impact (on a rate basis) on catcher framing. Essentially, this means that he has one of the smallest strike zones in baseball. Dan Haren is on the opposite side of the leaderboard, creating one of the largest positive impacts on framing. Brooks and Pavlidis have stated that they will publish the full leaderboard in the future, so we will get an opportunity to see the influence of other Dodgers pitchers as well.

The BP framing analysis also accounts for the umpire and adds a bit of regression. They have also applied all of the above methods to pitch blocking, another significant portion of catcher defensive value.

What does this mean for the Dodgers’ catchers? As the figure below shows, it isn’t pretty.

*For catchers who split time between the Dodgers and another team, I scaled their framing results by the amount of innings caught for each team.

The overall defensive contribution of the Dodgers catchers has dramatically declined since Russell Martin‘s departure. In 2011, the team’s overall defensive value was nearly neutral, thanks mostly to Rod Barajas‘ 9.3 blocking runs above average. In 2012 and 2013, the overall defensive value has been amounted to nearly two lost wins per season.

Let’s break down the last two years a bit more. Below is a table of each player who has caught for the Dodgers during that time period, both on a counting and rate basis. 7000 framing opportunities (as noted in the “/7000″ statistics) is approximately one season for the primary catcher, so that is what the rate stats are based on. Each /7000 stat corresponds to the raw counting stat on its left. Catchers with less playing time (Butera, Hernandez, etc) will have a bigger difference between their rate stats and counting stats and will have higher small sample volatility.

Year	Player	Framing Runs Above Average	FrRAA/7000	Blocking Runs Above Average	BRAA/7000	Total Receiving Runs Above Average	RRAA/7000
2013	A.J. Ellis	-12.0	-13.73	-3.0	-2.9	-15.0	-16.1
2013	Tim Federowicz	-1.1	-3.1	0.4	0.8	-0.7	-2.4
2013	Ramon Hernandez	-1.7	-18.9	0.0	0.0	-1.7	-18.9
2013	Drew Butera	-0.1	-4.4	0.0	0.0	-0.1	-4.4
2012	A.J. Ellis	-14.9	-13.8	-0.5	-0.3	-15.4	-14.1
2012	Matt Treanor	-5.1	-18.4	1.3	3.3	-3.8	-15.2
2012	Tim Federowicz	-0.1	-10.6	0.0	0.0	-0.1	-10.6

As you can see, A.J. Ellis’ defensive numbers are pretty disappointing. He was worth -12 framing runs above average and -3 blocking runs above average last season. By raw counting value, he was the sixth-worst framer, the seventh-worst blocker, and the fourth-worst combined defender. By rate, his defense was fifth-worst last season. He wasn’t much better in 2012; fifth-worst by overall defense.

Ellis’ back-up, Tim Federowicz, fared a bit better last season. He’s listed as a below-average framer, but a slightly above-average pitch blocker. This adds up to a slightly below-average combination of the two defensive numbers, which is counter to his reputation.

The new model at Baseball Prospectus has different evaluations on Ellis than an older model found at StatCorner. Baseball Prospectus evaluates Ellis’ 2013 framing value to be -12.0 runs, while StatCorner evaluates it as -7.4 runs. StatCorner (-16.0 runs) is harsher on Ellis’ 2012 framing than BP (-14.9).

Searching through the Baseball Prospectus numbers show a few examples who were at or below Ellis’ level improving their framing numbers. Carlos Santana was worth -34 FrRAA/7000 in 2012, but was worth -7.7 in 2013. Dioner Navarro went from -23.4 FrRAA/7000 in 2008 to -6.4 FrRAA/7000 in 2009. Despite the two positive examples, big improvements from a large negative framing value are relatively rare among catchers with significant sample sizes. Teams could be recognizing the value removed by poor framing and substituting better catchers, but it’s more likely that they haven’t recognized (or, perhaps, disagree with) the impact of framing.

No matter which model you ask, they draw the same conclusion: pitch framing is a weakness on the Dodgers. The magnitude of its importance is still being determined, but hopefully A.J. Ellis will take steps to improve his receiving in 2014.

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This post uses the following statistics:

FrRAA/7000: Framing runs above average per 7000 framing opportunities
BRAA/7000: Blocking runs above average per 7000 blocking opportunities
RRAA/7000: Receiving runs above average per 7000 framing opportunities. Sums framing and blocking inputs

This is a Brian Wilson knuckleball tribute GIF

Posted on March 5, 2014 by Chad Moriyama Leave a reply

GIF Link

Brian Wilson did that.

Why?

Cause Brian Wilson, I guess?

R.A. Dickey, eat your heart out.