This year’s qualifying offer is worth $18.4 million on a 1-year deal. Players eligible for the qualifying offer must have spent the entire season with the same team and/or have not been extended the offer in the past. That’s why Max Scherzer and Kenley Jansen weren’t eligible for the QO.
Before we go further, it must be acknowledged that this is all part of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, which expires Dec. 1. Things may change that make the following moot, but we’re just going to roll with it.
Players have until Nov. 17 to accept or reject the offer. If a player rejects and signs with another team, the original team would be compensated with a competitive balance pick after the first round. But the Dodgers, as a luxury tax team, wouldn’t receive a competitive balance round selection until after the fourth round. Last year, the Dodgers had the last selection of the fourth round (Nick Nastrini), and that was No. 131 overall. So, they’d get a pick or two in that area if Seager and Taylor sign elsewhere.
It seems Taylor is a guy the Dodgers must re-sign, especially since the draft pick compensation isn’t nearly as attractive as it would have been if it were after the first round. The same could be said about Seager, but he’s expected to command a mega deal. While the Dodgers could afford it, the reality of the situation is that Seager has likely played his final game for LA.
The decision to not offer Kershaw the QO is curious. As mentioned above, the compensation isn’t great, but if he were to sign elsewhere, the Dodgers would get nothing for it. Offering him the QO would also deter other teams from signing him, as they’d forfeit draft picks of their own, depending on their luxury tax situation.
However, this makes some sense.
Perhaps the Dodgers are confident they’re going to be able to re-sign him or they are already close to a deal. Either way, he needs to be back, if he’s still planning on playing.
Looking ahead to free agency, these are the players outside of Seager and Taylor who received qualifying offers around baseball.
- Brandon Belt
- Nick Castellanos
- Michael Conforto
- Carlos Correa
- Freddie Freeman
- Raisel Iglesias
- Robbie Ray
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Marcus Semien
- Trevor Story
- Noah Syndergaard
- Justin Verlander
There are some interesting guys on that list. Some don’t make a ton of sense for the Dodgers (Belt, Correa) and some probably aren’t leaving their current team (Freeman, Syndergaard). You could make a legitimate argument for everyone else on the list outside of Iglesias (just re-sign Kenley). I could see the Dodgers taking a chance on Ray’s resurgence or Semien, seeing as they were interested in him last winter. They could also just say “fuck it” and sign Verlander. I wouldn’t put it past them.