Mets @ Dodgers April 21, 2024: Hoping to avoid first home sweep since last June

Dodger Stadium All-Star Day

It was well documented at the time, but the most recent sweep of the Dodgers (12-11) at home came last June when the Giants came through and won 7-5 in 11 innings, 15-0 and 7-3. The Mets (12-8) wins of 9-4 and 6-4 haven’t been quite as embarrassing as that series, but a sweep is just one game away either way. The Dodgers also lost three straight at home to the Braves in late August/early September last year, but Los Angeles won the finale of the four-game series to avoid a sweep.

As for being swept by the Mets, it appears the last time was a three-game series in New York back in 2010. That included a doubleheader to open the series after a rain out, with Hiroki Kuroda, Charlie Haeger and John Ely on the mound, and Reed Johnson and Jamey Carroll making an appearance in all three games. And the Mets sweeping the Dodgers in Los Angeles, that looks like it last happened in a series of at least three games back in August 1989.

Image Image
1:10 P.M. Los Angeles
LF Nimmo (L) SS Betts
RF Marte DH Ohtani (L)
SS Lindor (S) 1B Freeman (L)
1B Alonso C Smith
3B Baty (L) 3B Muncy (L)
DH Stewart (L) RF T. Hernandez
2B McNeil (L) CF Outman (L)
CF Bader LF Pages
C Nido 2B Lux (L)
P Houser (R) P Glasnow (R)

Right-handed Adrian Houser on the mound for New York means the Dodgers send out James Outman and Gavin Lux again while Will Smith is back behind the plate to catch Tyler Glasnow.

The Mets are sending out a pretty similar order as the first two games in the series. Central Coast native Jeff McNeil is 4-for-9 with a walk, Starling Marte is 4-for-10 with 6 RBIs, Francisco Lindor is 4-for-10 with 4 RBIs, and Harrison Bader is 4-for-10 though all four hits came Friday night.


With the rotation currently including Yoshinobu Yamamoto, James Paxton, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and I guess Ryan Yarbrough, Glasnow is pretty clearly the best option to be on the mound as the Dodgers look to avoid being swept.

In his 29 innings for the Dodgers this season, Glasnow holds a 3.72 ERA/3.61 FIP/3.11 xFIP/3.19 SIERA/4.25 DRA. The K% is down at 29.6% from 33.4% in 2023, 38.5% in 2022 (Yes, that was in 6 2/3 innings) and 36.3% in 2021, but Glasnow’s BB% of 7.8% is pretty much in line with what he’s produced for years now (7.6% in 2023, 7.7% in 2022, 7.9% in 2021). The sample sizes are incredibly small through Glasnow’s first 5 starts, but he’s essentially a quarter of the way to his 2023 inning total and a third to his 2021 total.

Just for the sake of pointing it out, Glasnow’s Whiff% on his four-seamer is 20.9% and down from 24.9% in 2023 and 27.8% from 2021. The curve’s Whiff% is 46.4%, behind 52.2% in 2023 and 56.1% in 2021. On the other end of the spectrum, his slider’s Whiff% of 42.5% is the highest of his career as the Dodgers have him throwing the pitch with a bit more horizontal break (3.5 inches) than he previously has. The velocity of 90.9 is pretty similar to the past couple of years since he made the big adjustment to dropping the pitch’s vertical movement beginning in 2022.

For the Mets, Houser is in his first season with New York after spending many years with the Brewers. Houser managed to face the Dodgers just twice in his 129 career appearances between 2015 and 2023, once in each of the past two years.

Last season, Houser started against the Dodgers on Aug. 15 with 4 runs allowed (3 earned) across 5 1/3 innings. The Dodgers went 9 up, 9 down to start the game before Mookie Betts broke the run with a single to open the 4th. Los Angeles didn’t break through until the 5th inning with a RBI groundout from Miguel Rojas and then added three more runs against Houser in the 6th when J.D. Martinez doubled and Enrique Hernandez singled in three runs. Houser’s 2022 start against the Dodgers went much worse, allowing 5 runs in 2 1/3 innings on 5 hits and 4 walks. Los Angeles scored 4 runs in the first inning, led by walks to start the game with singles by Freddie Freeman and Justin Turner, as well as a double by Cody Bellinger driving in the runs.

Houser’s 15 1/3 innings include a 4.70 ERA/4.40 FIP/5.58 xFIP/5.69 SIERA/4.85 DRA with a 13.2 K% and a 14.7 BB%. Primarily a sinker ball pitcher, Houser’s ground ball rate of 57.4% is among the Top 20 in baseball for pitchers with 10 innings pitched. Right-handed batters see 53.0% sinkers and 25.0% sliders, with a change and fastball each at 9.1%. The change has a 71.4 Whiff% to right-handed batters, but that’s only on 12 pitches. Left-handed batters, the sinker drops to 35.2% usage with a 24.0% fastballs, 18.4% changes and 14.4% sliders. The change also has a 40.0 Whiff% against left-handed batters, but that’s still just 23 pitches. Unsurprisingly, Houser’s career line against lefties (.283/.369/.448/.817) is significantly worse than righties (.228/.294/.331/.625). That split was a bit different last season, but that’s an outlier for the rest of his career.


As for the bullpen, here’s a look at the inning pitch count usage over the past week.

April 13April 14April 15April 16April 17April 18April 19April 20
Ryan Brasier1 (12)Off1 (21)2/3 (7)
Michael Grove1/3 (5)3 (36)Off2/3 (16)
Daniel Hudson1 (12)1 (18)Off1 (17)
Joe Kelly1 (28)Off1 (21)1/3 (9)
Evan Phillips1 (23)Off1 (19)
Nick Ramirez1 (10)2 (16)AAAAAAAAAAAA1 (11)
Alex Vesia1 2/3 (21)1 (29)Off2/3 (7)

This doesn’t include Yarbrough’s or Kyle Hurt‘s usage over the past week. That really only includes April 16 anyway when the two were paired together, though Yarbrough’s 1 1/3 innings yesterday did include 22 pitches from the bullpen alongside the other six pitchers used after Stone.

As plenty others have noted, that last roster spot in the bullpen has essentially gone from Kyle Hurt to Nabil Crismatt to Dinelson Lamet to Gus Varland to Connor Brogdon to Nick Ramirez to Ricky Vanasco to Kyle Hurt to Nick Ramirez since the start of April.

Bobby Miller‘s IL stint also triggered the J.P. Feyereisen to Eduardo Salazar to Landon Knack chain of moves as well. Those are not a perfect swap for swap given the moves from April 15 and 16, but that’s basically correct. That’s essentially every available name from the 40-man roster given Nick Frasso‘s labrum surgery and the injured list stints for what is currently 10 total pitchers.


Somewhat related to all of that is the update for Walker Buehler.

The rotation plan for the series in Washington is Paxton on Tuesday, Knack on Wednesday and Yamamoto on Thursday.


First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. on SportsNet LA and MLB Network out of market.

About Cody Bashore

Cody Bashore is a lifelong Dodger fan originally from Carpinteria, California (about 80 miles north of Dodger Stadium along the coast). He left California to attend Northern Arizona University in 2011, and has lived in Arizona full-time since he graduated in 2014 with a journalism degree.