Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers (33-18) dropped the second game of a three game set against the Diamondbacks (23-26) last night by a score of 7-3. Gavin Stone had been excellent over his past four outings, but it came to a halt last night, allowing four earned runs in six innings. Not terrible if that’s going to be his “bad start”, and the offense didn’t do enough to put him in a position to win regardless. Brandon Pfaadt allowed two earned runs through six innings, but Joc Pederson‘s seventh inning three-run homer blew the game open. Tonight features Tyler Glasnow on the mound looking to secure a series win, up against the 26 year-old righty, Ryne Nelson.
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| 7:10 P.M. | Los Angeles | ||
| CF | Carroll (L) | SS | Betts |
| 2B | Marte (S) | DH | Ohtani (L) |
| DH | Pederson (L) | 1B | Freeman (L) |
| 1B | Walker | C | Smith |
| LF | Gurriel Jr. | LF | T. Hernández |
| RF | Grichuk | 2B | Lux (L) |
| 3B | Suárez | CF | Pages |
| C | Moreno | RF | Heyward (L) |
| SS | Newman | 3B | K. Hernández |
| P | Nelson (R) | P | Glasnow (R) |
Both teams will make just one change to their lineups today. Miguel Vargas will sit as Jason Heyward will start in right field, shifting Teoscar Hernández to left field. Randal Grichuk will start in right field over Jake McCarthy.
Ketel Marte will look to extend his hitting streak to 21 games after going 1-5 last night. Joc Pederson was 2-5 last night and is now up to a .989 OPS on the year. He’s a fan favorite and a Dodger legend, but they’ll need to find a way to get him out to win this series. Vargas had his first hit of the season last night, a leadoff double in the sixth inning. This unfortunately puts him ahead of Chris Taylor in extra-base hits. Shohei Ohtani had two hits as did Gavin Lux, who’s been looking better recently.
Over the last month, Lux has a 94 wRC+ and .674 OPS, slashing .246/.297/.377. I’m not going to argue that he’s been an offensive juggernaut lately, but it’s been passable which is an improvement. Second base is one of the weakest offensive positions in the sport, with an average slash line of .242/.307/.366, for a .673 OPS and 94 wRC+. He’s been league-average offensively for a second baseman over the last month and above-average defensively. If he’s your nine hitter, that’s enough.
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Here’s how Glasnow and Nelson matchup.
Glasnow wasn’t at his best in his last outing, allowing four runs on six hits and one walk while striking out eight over five innings. He surrounded a leadoff homer to Will Benson as well as an RBI double later that inning. The whiffs have still been there, as he’s struck out at least eight batters in five straight starts.
The rankings above are out of 77 qualified starting pitchers. In addition to those, he’s also fourth in SIERA (2.58), second in xFIP (2.37), and seventh in innings pitched (62.0), but will likely lead baseball in innings again after this outing. His 80 strikeouts lead baseball, and he’s been showing that he’s one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball. His two worst starts have come against poor offenses in Cincinnatti (5.0 IP, 4 ER) and Washington (5.0 IP, 6 ER), as he’s given up just twenty earned runs on the year and half came in those two outings. Maybe just a touch more consistency and he’ll be pacing towards the Cy Young, although the team and himself are likely more focused on staying healthy.
Nelson had a terrible outing his last time out, allowing eight runs on eleven hits and a walk while striking out four over four innings. This was his worst start of the season, but he’d been struggling significantly prior to that start anyways. He mowed through Single-A and Double-A in 2019-2021, but hadn’t been able to recreate that success in Triple-A in 2022 or 2023 prior to being called up to make his debut last year. He had a 3.74 ERA in Triple-A in 2023 over 21.2 innings with just nine strikeouts and six walks before getting the call, and a 5.43 ERA in 2022 over 136.0 innings. He has powerful stuff so he should be able to make things happen but he just hasn’t found a way yet.
He was known for having a really powerful fastball-curveball combination but has all but shelved the curveball at this point. He sits 95.1 MPH with his four-seamer and will grab 98 here and there, throwing the pitch 50.8% of the time. He goes to a low-90’s cutter as his most prominent secondary offering, throwing it 22.1% of the time and against both lefties and righties. From there he mixes in a mid-80’s changeup he’ll throw against left-handed batters, a low-80’s slider he throws to right-handed batters, and the aforementioned curveball that he throws just 4.7% of the time now. It’s a lopsided matchup, but it’s baseball and the offense still needs to show up.
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The bullpen has mostly been great, but getting Evan Phillips back next week would be great. Shifting everyone down a slot in leverage is always beneficial.
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This article by Kiri Oler is great and looks into key differences between the Dodgers and Angels over the years where Ohtani was in Anaheim.
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This is just a fun read on the Twins and their rally sausage.
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First pitch is at 7:10 PM PDT on SNLA and MLB Network.
