Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers (87-59) narrowly avoided a sweep against the Chicago Cubs (75-71) Wednesday night, despite Bobby Miller’s continued struggles, coming out on top by a score of 10-8. Shohei Ohtani added home run number 47 and stolen base number 48, feasibly making 50-50 attainable shortly. It’s not locked up but it’s looking very likely at this rate. Tommy Edman added two more home runs, reaching four on the year, and now unfortunately has more homers than Chris Taylor this season. Four games in Atlanta opens a seven game road trip for the Dodgers, ending with three games in Miami next week.
The team has 16 games left and shouldn’t have much of an issue making the playoffs at the very least, but they would like home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if possible. They have a five game lead on Arizona in the division plus the tiebreak, and five and a half games on the Padres who have the tiebreak against the Dodgers. They’re one game back of the Phillies (88-58) who own the tiebreak, and they’re three games ahead of the Brewers (84-62) in addition to the tiebreak for the first round bye. There’s still a lot at stake record wise, but they’re seven games ahead of the Mets who are currently the final wild card team (with the Braves one game behind them). It’s a massively important series for Atlanta and they will bring everything they have. The series will start with two rookies in Landon Knack and Spencer Schwellenbach, whose last name is so long I had to change the font size in my chart.
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|---|---|---|---|
| 4:20 PM | Atlanta | ||
| DH | Ohtani (L) | CF | Harris II (L) |
| RF | Betts | RF | Soler |
| 1B | Freeman (L) | DH | Ozuna |
| LF | T. Hernández | 1B | Olson (L) |
| 3B | Muncy (L) | C | D’Arnaud |
| CF | Edman (S) | LF | Laureano |
| C | Smith | SS | Arcia |
| 2B | Lux (L) | 3B | Urshela |
| SS | Rojas | 2B | Merrifield |
| P | Knack (R) | P | Schwellenbach (R) |
Both the Dodgers and Braves run out their “A” lineups to open the series as to be expected at this point in the season. The Braves’ offense has been decimated by injuries, with Ronald Acuña Jr. out for the year, Austin Riley likely done unless the Braves are playing deep into October, Ozzie Albies is likely out for the year, and Sean Murphy has played just 64 games. They had an unbelievable offense in 2023, and here’s how they compare to the Dodgers this season.
Atlanta had a world-beating offense last year, with a 125 wRC+, miles ahead of the Rays (117), Rangers (116), and Dodgers (116), while their .845 OPS was similar, with the Dodgers in second at .795. They hit a whopping 307 homers compared to the Dodgers’ second place 249. 307 home runs in a season tied them with the 2019 Twins, a notorious juiced ball season.
Outside the injuries which is nearly impossible to ignore, what happened to their offense this year? Last year, Acuna won NL MVP with a 171 wRC+, 1.012 OPS, 41 homers, 73 stolen bases, and 9.0 fWAR. They lost him early in the year to another ACL tear, although he had just a 105 wRC+ and four home runs through 49 games this year. Matt Olson came back to earth this year with a 107 wRC+, .756 OPS, and 25 home runs compared to his monstrous 2023 season where he hit 54 homers with 139 runs batted in, and a 161 wRC+ and 6.5 fWAR. Riley had been going through a down year as well prior to breaking his hand via HBP on August 18. He had logged a 116 wRC+, 19 home runs, and 2.4 fWAR through 110 games, after posting 5.0+ in three consecutive seasons. Murphy has been battling injuries, but is coming off a 129 wRC+ 4.9 fWAR season in 108 games, but has just an 81 wRC+. Orlando Arcia had a career year at the plate last year, with a league-average 99 wRC+ and .741 OPS, but that’s down to a .633 OPS and 74 wRC+ this season, basically what he’s always done throughout his career. They grabbed Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners in an offseason trade, but he’s been just okay with a .684 OPS and below-average defense in the outfield. Michael Harris II had a fantastic 2022 season in which he won ROTY and followed that up with an .808 OPS 4 fWAR season, but has just a .667 OPS this year.
Long story short, they’ve had countless injuries but also had nearly everyone perform at their 95th percentile or above in 2023. Big shocker that it wasn’t repeatable, same deal as what happened to the Rangers’ offense this season. Hopefully Marcell Ozuna can avoid hitting Will Smith in his follow-through once again.
The Dodgers’ offense is coming off a great game, but recent losses can be chalked up to inconsistency and spotty pitching and defense. Ohtani is coming up on creating the unprecedented 50-50 club. It’s very on brand for him, the most talented player of all time, to find a way to somehow build upon his legacy in a season where he can’t even pitch. If Aaron Judge didn’t find a way to set the American League single season home run record (62) in 2022, Ohtani would be vying for his fourth consecutive MVP. I still think that an .875 OPS with 34 home runs, a 2.33 ERA over 166.0 innings with 219 strikeouts and leading starting pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings and a fourth place Cy Young finish is worthy of the MVP award but, I digress. Max Muncy has hit three homers off left-handed pitching over the last week which is promising to see. The offense is better as a whole with him being a staple in the lineup and not having Kiké or Taylor in the starting lineup instead of him. Will Smith has looked to be figuring things out with his results at the plate but also the at-bat quality as a whole. They just need to make the playoffs with this current group healthy.
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Here’s how the two rookies compare.
Schwellenbach has had a great season thus far, and has been incredibly consistent for Atlanta. He allowed three earned runs on ten hits over five innings with three strikeouts his last time out against the Blue Jays. He gave up two home runs for the fourth time this year, and has now given up multiple runs in six of his last seven outings, but none of those outings have gotten out of hand. Over his last eleven starts, he has a 2.86 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, and 75 strikeouts to just ten walks over 66.0 innings pitched. Pretty stellar stuff for the rookie. He has a full six-pitch mix, with a mid-90’s four-seam fastball and sinker the foundation of his arsenal, with a slider, cutter, curveball, and a splitter to round everything out. He looks to be a staple in their rotation for the foreseeable future.
Knack has also been good this season, and while his underlying stats don’t look as great, the results can’t be denied. He allowed two runs on three hits and one walk with eight strikeouts over six innings his last time out against the Guardians. It was his first start in the bigs since August 13, and he continued his great season as if he’d never been optioned back down in the first place. He’s given up more than just two runs in just two of his eleven appearances and always seems to find a way to keep runs off the board. He’s been getting a decent amount of swing-and-miss over his last six big-league appearances which raises his ceiling as a whole. He has a 29.6% strikeout rate and just a 4.3% walk rate over his last 28.1 innings pitched, with 35 strikeouts to just five walks in that stretch. He’s been considerably better than Walker Buehler and Miller this season, and might be pitching in October if the rotation doesn’t heal up in time.
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Everything had been trending in the right direction for Tyler Glasnow, but another setback is not what the Dodgers needed.
At this point who knows what the rotation will look like in just a few weeks.
In my opinion, I don’t think Ohtani should pitch in any capacity this postseason regardless of injuries and availability, but he and the organization know his body better than my speculation.
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First pitch is at 4:20 PT on Apple TV+.
