Predicting the Dodgers roster for the 2024 NLDS

This was such a strange season for the Dodgers. They added the best baseball player to ever play, dealt with a multitude of injuries to key players, and still ended up with the best record in baseball — which was also their worst record since 2018.

The postseason roster will, likely, be announced Saturday. There are questions about the starting rotation, but the biggest question mark might be Freddie Freeman‘s availability. Freeman suffered a right ankle sprain on Thursday, and the Dodgers are optimistic about his chances of making the National League Division Series roster against the Padres. If he can’t go, though, the lineup shrinks a bit and reliance on non-Freeman players could lead to disaster for the Dodgers.

#Dodgers Dave Roberts said Freddie Freeman has been taking swings in the batting cage and will likely face live pitching either Thur or Fri. Confident he will be in starting lineup but Roberts acknowledges his ankle injury could be "limiting" defensively

— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) October 2, 2024

It is somewhat reminiscent of 2021, when Max Muncy suffered a significant elbow injury on the final weekend of the season that cost him the playoffs and hampered the Dodgers’ chances of making some real noise. Thankfully for Freeman and the Dodgers, this injury wasn’t as serious.

——

Here’s a prediction as to how the Dodgers’ roster could look for the five-game NLDS.

Catchers (2)
Austin Barnes
Will Smith

Infielders (4)
Freddie Freeman
Gavin Lux
Max Muncy
Miguel Rojas

Outfielders (2)
Teoscar Hernandez
Andy Pages

Infielders/Outfielders (4)
Mookie Betts
Tommy Edman
Enrique Hernandez
Chris Taylor

Ohtani (1)
Shohei Ohtani

Pitchers (13)
Anthony Banda
Ben Casparius
Ryan Brasier
Walker Buehler
Jack Flaherty
Edgardo Henriquez
Daniel Hudson
Landon Knack
Michael Kopech
Evan Phillips
Blake Treinen
Alex Vesia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Betts has played almost exclusively right field since returning from the injured list in August, so he should continue to do so and hit right behind Ohtani in the lineup. Freeman should hit third or fourth with Hernandez hitting fourth or third and Smith penciled in at the No. 5 spot (perhaps Muncy, if it’s a right-handed pitcher).

The rest of the lineup likely depends on the opposing pitcher. If it’s a lefty, Edman probably hits sixth and plays second base or shortstop, with Muncy hitting seventh at third base. If it’s a righty, Muncy hits fifth or sixth (Smith hits in the other position) and plays the hot corner, with some amalgam of Edman/Hernandez/Lux/Pages/Rojas rounding out the lineup at the remaining available positions (2B, SS, LF, CF). Seeing as Kevin Kiermaier hasn’t played much down the stretch, he’s probably on the outside looking in.

Here’s how it looks in lineup form.

vs. RHP
Ohtani DH
Betts RF
Freeman 1B
Hernandez LF
Muncy 3B
Smith C
Edman CF
Rojas SS
Lux 2B

vs. LHP
Ohtani DH
Betts RF
Freeman 1B
Hernandez LF
Smith C
Edman 2B
Rojas SS
Muncy 3B
Pages/Hernandez CF

The starting rotation is questionable at best. Flaherty is going to get the ball in Game 1 almost by default. That’s not to say he isn’t good — he is! — but Yamamoto is just coming back (and looking inconsistent), Buehler has been even more inconsistent and Knack has seen his ERA (3.65) far outmatch his FIP (4.72), which doesn’t exactly bode well for the postseason. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers rolled the dice on Buehler in hopes of him recapturing some of his former postseason glory. Clayton Kershaw, unfortunately (and if you say otherwise, you’re a terrible person), doesn’t seem like he’s going to make it back for this series — and likely beyond. With the lack of length outside of the aforementioned guys, Casparius gets the nod over a guy like Joe Kelly, Justin Wrobleski or even the massively disappointing Bobby Miller.

The bullpen isn’t the best it’s ever been, but it also isn’t as big a question mark as it was earlier in the season. Despite Kopech getting most of the save opportunities for the last two months, Dave Roberts will almost assuredly decide who comes in based on the game situation. Phillips has looked much more likely himself since the beginning of August (2.82 ERA, 2.18 FIP, 24.4 K-BB%), making him a valuable high-leverage reliever for the Dodgers. The biggest surprise might be the young fireballer in Henriquez, who logged 3 1/3 innings in the season’s final month. He brings high velo and a cutter that acts as a slider in his case. Perhaps a limited look at him by opponents could give the youngster a slight advantage.

——

Despite having Ohtani and everything he has done this season, it’s going to take a lot of guys playing much closer to their true talent level if the Dodgers want to go deep into this postseason. That sounds weird when you factor in they’re the odds-on betting favorite to win it all, but the numbers, stat sheets and formulas can only tell you so much. In 2017, it felt like they were destined to be in the World Series. In 2020, it felt like they were going to win (after coming back from a 3-1 deficit in the NLCS). But this is feeling very 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023 to me. Those seasons ended in disappointing fashion — the three most recent being especially disappointing. If the Dodgers hit, they’re going to go far, as evidenced by this awesome tweet from a smart and probably handsome gentleman on Twitter.

Dodgers’ offense in the postseason:

2013: 10 G, 3.2 R/G
2014: 4 G, 3.75 R/G
2015: 5 G, 3.6 R/G
2016: 11 G, 3.3 R/G
2017: 15 G, 5.5 R/G (*)
2018: 16 G, 3.7 R/G
2019: 5 G, 4.4 R/G
2020: 18 G, 5.6 R/G (🏆)
2021: 12 G, 4 R/G
2022: 4 G, 3 R/G
2023: 3 G, 2 R/G

— Dustin Nosler (@DustinNosler) October 12, 2023

Score some runs and Ohtani will get to hoist his first (of many, hopefully) World Series trophies.