Dodgers @ Rangers April 18, 2025: Yamamoto and deGrom open Texas series with an aces duel

(Via @MLB)

After a poor road trip over the weekend, the Dodgers (14-6) got just what they needed to right the ship, a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies (3-15) in Los Angeles. The Dodgers swept that series, and now have a brief five-game road trip, starting with three against the Rangers (12-7), who are also coming off a sweep against a weak team in the Angels (9-9). Texas just won their ninth straight game at home, bringing them to 9-1 at home while just 3-6 on the road. The only other team with a better record at home is the San Diego Padres at 12-1, who seemingly only have to play in San Diego this year. The Dodgers are 4-4 on the road, but went 2-4 on their recent east coast road trip while winning their two “road games” in Tokyo. This weekend series features some serious starting pitching matchups, opening with Yoshinobu Yamamoto against the always dangerous Jacob deGrom.

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5:05 P.M. Arlington
2B Edman (S) 2B Semien
SS Betts SS Seager (L)
1B Freeman (L) DH Pederson (L)
RF T. Hernández RF García
LF Conforto (L) 3B Jung
C Smith LF Harris (L)
3B Muncy (L) 1B Burger
DH Rosario (L) C Heim (S)
CF Pages CF Taveras (S)
P Yamamoto (R) P deGrom (R)

Shohei Ohtani will miss his first game of the season as he was placed on the paternity list prior to the game today. The Dodgers will run out their best lineup without him as Tommy Edman slides up to the leadoff spot and with Eddie Rosario making his Dodger debut at designated hitter.

Here’s how the two offenses compare as a whole.

The Rangers have had some really productive offensive performances that stand out this year from a handful of their regular starters. Josh Smith has a 170 wRC+ over 44 plate appearances, as have Corey Seager (154 wRC+), Wyatt Langford (153 wRC+), Josh Jung (150 wRC+), Jonah Heim (123 wRC+), and Adolis García (119 wRC+). The issue is that Jung missed nine games with neck spasms earlier this month, while Langford is currently on the Injured List with an oblique issue, and Smith has missed the past three games with a thumb injury. When some of the key contributors are injured, the rest of the lineup has to step up and there have been massive issues with some of the everyday players not listed above.

Joc Pederson is coming off a monstrous season with the Diamondbacks, yet has a staggering -24 wRC+ and .241 OPS over 16 games and 57 plate appearances. Marcus Semien has been significantly better than Joc, although that’s not saying much with a 16 wRC+ and a .134/.203/.194 slash line. Leody Taveras (45 wRC+) and Jake Burger (64 wRC+) have been better than aforementioned duo, but once again they’re still in “oh god, they’re up again?” territory. Those guys will be better eventually, and it’s incredible they’re 12-7 and leading the AL West with this offensive performance so far.

The Dodgers have had some issues with the bottom of their order, ranking 25th in wRC+ (65) and 26th in OPS (.549), but those issues have been largely tied to the guys you’d expect that level of performance from. Austin Barnes (-56 wRC+, .176 OPS), Miguel Rojas (1 WRC+, .349 OPS), and Chris Taylor (.500 OPS, 42 wRC+) have been very bad, but have combined for only 64 plate appearances. Kiké Hernandez (.564 OPS), Max Muncy (.572 OPS), and Andy Pages (.597 OPS) have all been bad but have been more in the “hey maybe they’ll do something” tier. Tommy Edman (139 wRC+) and Teoscar Hernández (128 wRC+) have both been great, but both have on-base percentages below that of Muncy at .309, due to some recent success.

Muncy has looked better at the plate over his last five games, with three hits and six walks to only four strikeouts. His plate discipline and in-zone contact has looked better, so maybe he’s coming out of his slump to start the year. Pages has had highs and lows this year, but has looked better as of late, with minimal miscues in the field and on the bases while the bat comes around. After the series in Philadelphia, he’s slashing .261/.346/.522, good for a 147 wRC+. It’s not perfect, but it’s better and that’s a positive. With the return of Freddie Freeman, seven regulars in the lineup are putting up well above-average performances. Their offensive output ranges from Michael Conforto (.747 OPS and 120 wRC+), to a now healthy Freeman (1.145 OPS, 218 wRC+). Mookie Betts has an .858 OPS and 147 wRC+ thus far which is solid for him but excellent for a shortstop, ranking inside the top five in both. It’s a bit early for defensive metrics, but his +1 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) has him tied for seventh among shortstops, while his two Outs Above Average (OAA) have him tied for fifth. Great work from him thus far.

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Here’s how Yamamoto and deGrom have fared, early into their 2025 seasons.

DeGrom struggled his last time out, allowing three runs on three hits and four walks over four innings against the Mariners. He returned from Tommy John surgery late last year, and logged just 10.1 innings but looked like his former self. He had a 1.69 ERA, 2.32 FIP, and 14 strikeouts to one walk in 2024. His 2025 season has gotten off to a slightly slower start, and while acceptable thus far, it’s definitely not how you’d expect him to perform. He has just 13 strikeouts across his 14.2 innings pitched, to accompany six walks and seven earned runs. He’s limited home runs nearly his entire career, yet has already given up four.

Career wise, he’d be a Hall of Fame guarantee if he could ever stay healthy. He still has a shot with his two Cy Young awards, 42.3 bWAR and 42.9 fWAR, but being in his age-37 season he’ll need to recapture his former stardom to do so. He’s thrown just 280 innings over his last five seasons, which is unfortunate for baseball fans as he’s one of the greatest starting pitcher talents over the last few decades.

Yamamoto had a great outing his last time out, allowing just two hits and one walk over six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against a great Cubs’ lineup. He’s currently has a 14 inning scoreless streak going, dating back to his second start of the season against the Tigers. His stuff has been improved thus far, and it’s translating to results. He’s getting one more inch of ride on his four-seam fastball this year, two more inches of drop on his curveball, and three extra inches of arm-side run on his splitter. He’s also thrown 20 sinkers this season compared to 40 all of last season, throwing nine in his last outing, all against right-handed batters. It’s hard to say he’s “breaking out” as he was excellent last year, but his start to the year has been superb and it appears that he’s taking a step forward.

It’s also a bit early for the little fun Statcast bubbles, but it’s looking very bright this year. This Texas offense is dangerous, and all their slumping hitters could break out at any moment.

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A fresh arm in the bullpen as the corresponding move for Bobby Miller being optioned back to Triple-A. Noah Davis was acquired from the Boston Red Sox near the end of March for cash. He’s thrown 50.1 innings over the last two seasons with the Colorado Rockies, resulting in a 7.51 ERA, 5.46 FIP, and a 1.91 WHIP. No way to sugarcoat that, it’s been bad. He’s still just 27 years-old and is a relatively local guy, going to school at UCSB and growing up in Newport Beach. Who knows how long he’ll be in the organization, but the Dodgers liked something about his profile enough to stash him in Triple-A until now. The Dodgers have liked sinker/slider combinations in the past, see Blake Treinen, Dustin May, Anthony Banda, and even Michael Grove, Luis García, and Yohan Ramírez.

I know that there’s nothing but upside having another veteran left-handed bat as depth, but Eddie Rosario gives me nightmares from the 2021 NLCS. It was so bad that I discovered that I had the word “Rosario” muted on X. Edgardo Henriquez was transferred to the 60-Day Injured List in order to activate Rosario.

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Zyhir Hope continues to absolutely mash in his first year at High-A. As I’m writing this, his OPS is currently 1.123, and prior to today his 1.042 OPS in the cold Midwest League translated to a 192 wRC+. Any concerns about Hope needing to replicate his success he had in Low-A against better competition have been quieted for now.

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First pitch is at 5:05 PT on SNLA and MLB Network.

About Allan Yamashige

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Just a guy living in Southern California, having a good time writing about baseball. Hated baseball practice as a kid, but writing about it rules. Thanks for reading!