Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers (25-13) lost the opening game of this four game set against the Arizona Diamondbacks (20-18) last night by a score of 5-3 in a tense series opener. Yoshinobu Yamamoto started out well, but things unraveled for him in the fourth inning, serving up a grand slam to Gabriel Moreno. It happens. He still managed to get through five innings, while Jack Dreyer went three scoreless innings to finish out the game. That’s a considerable silver lining, as while Dreyer is now likely out for the remainder of the weekend or at the very least until Sunday, earning the pen an entire day of rest during this stretch is incredibly valuable. Brandon Pfaadt had historically struggled against the Dodgers, but shut them down entirely over six scoreless innings. The offense got a bit unlucky and could’ve put a few more runs on the board if the circumstances were slightly different, but I’ll touch on that more later. Roki Sasaki will be looking to get the Dodgers back on track today, up against Eduardo Rodriguez for Arizona, looking to gain some ground in the NL West.
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| 6:40 P.M. | Phoenix | ||
| DH | Ohtani (L) | RF | Carroll (L) |
| SS | Betts | 2B | Marte (S) |
| C | Smith | DH | Smith (L) |
| 1B | Freeman (L) | 1B | Naylor (L) |
| RF | Pages | 3B | Suárez |
| 3B | K. Hernández | C | Moreno |
| 2B | Rojas | LF | Gurriel Jr. |
| CF | Outman (L) | CF | Thomas (L) |
| LF | Taylor | SS | Perdomo (S) |
| P | Sasaki (R) | P | Rodriguez (L) |
The lineup today is nearly the weakest lineup the team can field at this point sans Austin Barnes. Kiké Hernández gets the start at third base, Miguel Rojas is at second, Chris Taylor is in left field, and James Outman is starting in center field against a left-handed pitcher. Yikes.
The Dodgers put 17 balls in play last night with exit velocities over 95 MPH, with just eight of those landing for hits. Arizona put 13 balls in play at 95 MPH+, and had seven hits including four extra-base hits. Sometimes the ball just doesn’t drop for you. Here’s the quality of contact just against Pfaadt alone.
Michael Conforto had the worst luck last night, despite needing to see results the most. He squared the ball up three times, with exit velocities of 95.2 MPH, 101.0, and 110.9. Naturally he went hitless on all three of those, despite expected batting averages of .280, .610, and .860. It hasn’t been pretty, but expect the Dodgers to ride this out for a considerable amount of time. Teoscar Hernández is still out with his groin strain, and corner outfield isn’t a strength in Triple-A for options to promote from within.
Outman also experienced some of the bad luck Conforto did last night, as he hit one 410 to dead center, with a .930 expected batting average and would be a home run in nearly every park, except for Chase Field. Hye-seong Kim and Will Smith both had hard-hit liners late in the game that found gloves in the outfield. Max Muncy added a ground rule double in the top of the eighth inning, although had it stayed in the field, another run would’ve scored. Shohei Ohtani added a too little too late, home run in the ninth inning last night, his 11th of the season, tying him for second in baseball. He’s quietly on pace for 45 home runs, 45 stolen bases, 175 runs scored (!!!), and 8.5 fWAR.
Kim struck out three times last night, something that he’d shown some issue with in the minors. I’d expect that to improve as he spends more time facing major league pitching, as well as fine tuning his swing, but there will be growing pains. As it currently stands, he’s a great player to be at the bottom of the order, with his baserunning, defensive versatility, and speed. He’s likely already one of the best defensive second basemen in the league, can slide over to shortstop comfortably, and will clearly get time in the outfield. Once Tommy Edman is back, it’ll be interesting to see how Kim is deployed. If he’s struggling at the plate, it’s likely he ends up optioned back to Triple-A, but with Edman’s ankle issue, I’m not convinced the team wants him in center field all that often.
The Diamondbacks have a good offense and it’ll be hard to keep them off the board. I just ask that the Dodger pitching staff keep Gabriel Moreno from doing damage against them, something every other team in baseball has managed to do this year. He had a 69 wRC+ and .581 OPS entering yesterday’s game, before going 3-4 with the aforementioned grand slam.
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Here’s how tonight’s starters compare and rank among 124 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.
Both starters have struggled keeping runners off the bases this year, with Sasaki owning the second highest walk rate in the sport, while Rodriguez is simply allowing too many hits.
Sasaki will be making his first career start on five days rest, with his first seven outings coming on at least six days rest. This stretch of the schedule necessitates it, as Yamamoto did the same thing last night. After two wild outings to start his career, Sasaki settled in well, and has gone at least five innings in each of his four previous starts. He has a 3.74 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over that stretch, albeit still with just 15 strikeouts to nine walks over 21.2 innings. He earned his first career win last time out, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks with four strikeouts over five innings against the Braves. While unimpressive, his four strikeouts tied his season high, as did his two walks. He was landing first pitch strikes more consistently, getting into favorable counts more often than not. Every outing is an opportunity for improvement, and on the road against a good Arizona offense is a tough ask.
Rodriguez allowed three earned runs on five hits and four walks with ten strikeouts over 5.1 innings last time out against the Phillies. His ten strikeouts were impressive as he’s been great in that department this year, but the four walks and five hits just limited his ability to prevent runs. His prior outing was very rough, allowing eight earned runs on nine hits and one walk over four innings, blowing up his ERA. His 5.92 ERA is undoubtedly bad, but his 4.03 FIP and 45 strikeouts to 12 walks indicates that there’s likely light at the end of the tunnel.
It’s likely that every reliever is available for the Dodgers tonight outside of Dreyer. The bullpen being without Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, and even Edgardo Henriquez, is definitely limiting. Kopech made a rehab outing in Triple-A last night and touched 98 MPH, which is a good sign he’s getting closer. Henriquez would’ve had a perfect opportunity to get time in the big leagues this year due to the aforementioned injuries, as well as the other relievers the Dodgers have had to use, such as Noah Davis (10.13 ERA), and Yoendrys Gómez (14.54 ERA). The seemingly self imposed foot injury that landed him on the Injured List is upsetting for all parties involved. He’s eligible to return over the next few weeks, but there’s been no news on him throwing or rehabbing.
The Diamondbacks also have some key injuries to their bullpen with a relief staff that isn’t as deep as that of the Dodgers. A.J. Puk (60-Day IL, elbow) and Justin Martinez (15-Day IL, shoulder) are both out with injuries, and were slated to be the two highest leverage arms for Arizona. They signed Kendall Graveman this offseason and he is also on the Injured List, as he’s rehabbing from a back injury.
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Could really use Kopech returning soon.
Seems as if Teoscar is progressing well, while Edman’s recovery has been a little slower than planned.
Blake Snell progress would be nice.
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First pitch is at 6:40 PT on SNLA.
