Astros @ Dodgers July 4, 2025: Two of the hottest teams in baseball meet in LA, Glasnow could return next week

The Dodgers handled their business against the White Sox, finishing off the sweep last night behind maybe the best start of Dustin May‘s career and Mookie Betts hitting his first homer in like three weeks. The win pushed the Dodgers two games up on the Tigers and nine up on both the Giants and Padres in the West. They’re 15-3 in their last 18 games and now welcome an Astro team that’s won 16 of their last 21 games. Houston was hovering around .500 for the first two months of the season, but went 19-7 in June to move into a tie with the Cubs for the third best record in baseball. They’re coming off a series win in Colorado where they took the first two games, but the Rockies came through in the seventh and held Houston off for a 7-6 win yesterday. They’ll be without Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña this weekend, but Dodger-killer Christian Walker is still in the lineup. He’s only posted a .664 OPS so far this season with 10 homers, but I expect like eight more this weekend. He’s played 42 games at Dodger Stadium and has a 1.184 OPS in his career there, even higher than his OPS at Coors.

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6:10 P.M. Los Angeles
3B Paredes DH Ohtani (L)
CF Meyers SS Betts
2B Altuve 1B Freeman (L)
RF Smith C Smith
1B Walker RF T. Hernández
C Caratini (S) CF Pages
DH Diaz (L) LF Conforto (L)
LF Trammell (L) 2B Edman (S)
SS Dubón 3B K. Hernández
P McCullers (R) P Casparius (R)

Ben Casparius gets the start today, opening a series that could see heavy bullpen usage. Shohei Ohtani starts tomorrow (and is expected to throw two innings again) and Sunday is still TBD (probably Emmet Sheehan), so I’m not sure if you can count on any of them for length. Fortunately May, Clayton Kershaw and Yoshinobu Yamamoto combined to take down 20 of the 27 innings over the three games against the White Sox, so the bullpen figures to be pretty well-rested. Each reliever only appeared in one game against the White Sox and no one threw more than an inning. Only Jack Dreyer (Tuesday) and Will Klein (Wednesday) threw more than 20 pitches in their outing, so should be all-hands-on-deck for this series. Casparius last pitched Saturday in Kansas City and had one of his worst outings in the Majors. He allowed six runs and eight hits over four innings following two strong innings out of Ohtani in their only loss on the road trip. He struggled in June after being moved into a bit more of a direct bulk/starter role after starting the season strong in a multi-inning relief role. He posted a 2.54 ERA through his first 20 games and only threw more than three innings in a game once in that time. In his last five games, he’s thrown more than three innings four times and has a 7.13 ERA (still 5.27 if you treat his last start as an outlier). He threw a season-high 75 pitches in Kansas City and did match a season-high with 12 whiffs.

Lance McCullers Jr. makes his ninth start back from injuries that have kept him out since 2022. He had an arm injury during Spring Training in 2023, had surgery on his flexor, was shut down while rehabbing the injury in 2024 and missed that entire season. He made his return in May and has had a rough time since returning. He’s posted a 6.61 ERA in 32 2/3 innings, with most of the damage coming in two disastrous starts. In his second start back, he only recorded one out and allowed seven runs, three hits and three walks. He bounced back with some solid starts, but got shelled last time out in Chicago. He allowed seven hits (three homers) and eight runs in 3 1/3 to the Cubs last Saturday. McCullers hasn’t allowed an earned run in 13 2/3 innings in his three starts away from Houston (worth pointing out those three starts came against three of the five lowest team OPS’s in baseball). He did allow two unearned runs in his start in Texas, but he’s definitely been solid on the road. He’s dominated the Dodgers in his three regular season starts against them, with a 1.02 ERA and .554 OPS allowed against the Dodgers (though his last start against them was in 2021).

McCullers’ velocity is (understandably) down across the board. He’s thrown a slider 34.6 percent of the time this season and averages 82.6 MPH on it, down from 85 MPH in 2022. His sinker is also down about two MPH and he’s thrown it 21.2 percent of the time, almost exclusively to righties. He’s thrown a change 19.9 percent of the time and four of the seven homers he’s allowed this season have come off it. He’s also thrown a knuckle curve (14.8 percent), four seamer (5.8 percent) and cutter (3.7 percent).

Enrique Hernandez gets the start at third tonight, hitting ninth in the order. Will Smith is back behind the plate and hitting cleanup after the day off yesterday. The Astros and Gameday/ESPN haven’t updated the Houston lineup yet and I need to schedule this shit, so blame Allan if it’s wrong.

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Hernandez starts at third tonight after Miguel Rojas started yesterday. Tommy Edman is also in the plans to fill in for Max Muncy.

Edman played 86 games at third for the Cardinals in 2019 and 2020, moving off the position when they signed Nolan Arenado in 2021. If Edman can handle third, it opens up room for some more Hyeseong Kim playing time (and potentially Esteury Ruiz in the outfield).

Edman seemingly will start playing third next week and Kim will get more starts against righties at second.

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Blake Snell is throwing a live BP tomorrow.

If things go well, he could begin a rehab assignment after. Hopefully they can squeeze in a rehab start next week before the All-Star Break, as all the minor league teams will be off July 14-17.

Tyler Glasnow could also be back before the break.

Glasnow allowed a three run homer in his rehab start for OKC yesterday, but struck out eight in 4 1/3 innings and threw 78 pitches. He could return next week in Milwaukee or San Francisco before the break.

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First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 PM PT and will be shown on SportsNet LA.

About Alex Campos

I've been writing about the Dodgers since I graduated from Long Beach State, where I covered the Dirtbags in my senior year. I'm either very good or very bad at puns.