The Dodgers (52-30) entered San Diego (43-37) coming off a three-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins (39-44), but struggled to get the offense going against old friend Walker Buehler, ultimately resulting in a 7-1 loss in the series opener. It was a two-run deficit for the majority of the game, with the Padres scoring three in the bottom of the second in response to a solo homer by Mookie Betts in the top of the second inning. The game was within reach up until Jonathan Hernández and his 8.27 ERA allowed four runs in the bottom of the eighth inning, allowing San Diego to avoid using Mason Miller which is unfortunate for the Dodgers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be on the mound looking to even the series up against Randy Vásquez for the Padres. The left-handed Kyle Hart will open the game for Vásquez, looking to get through the first couple innings against the left-handed heavy lineup.
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|---|---|---|---|
| 5:40 P.M. | San Diego | ||
| DH | Ohtani (L) | RF | Tatis Jr. |
| CF | Pages | LF | Taylor |
| 1B | Freeman (L) | CF | Merrill (L) |
| SS | Betts | 3B | Machado |
| 3B | Muncy (L) | 1B | Sheets (L) |
| LF | Edman (S) | SS | Bogaerts |
| RF | Tucker (L) | DH | Andujar |
| C | Rushing (L) | 2B | Wagner (L) |
| 2B | Freeland (S) | C | Fermin |
| P | Yamamoto (R) | P | Hart (L) |
The Dodgers will run out nearly the exact same lineup as they did in the series opener, with Kyle Tucker and Tommy Edman swapping spots in the order.
Betts continued his improved performance at the plate with his solo shot in the second inning, but unfortunately combined that with grounding into two separate double plays. The team has now grounded into a league-leading 70 double plays, with the Pittsburgh Pirates sitting in solo second at 65. It’s not a massive issue, but the frequency is certainly annoying. The offense has more opportunities to ground into double plays than most other teams as they lead baseball in on-base percentage (.344), and they also have the fifth lowest strikeout rate at 20.5%. This results in a lot of balls in play with runners on the bases, and combine that with an aging team with a lack of speed and you get a lot of double plays. Despite it making sense, they’ll certainly look to cut down on them from a strategic standpoint however.
The Padres meanwhile will make two changes to their starting lineup, with Freddy Fermin starting behind the plate over Rodolfo Durán, and Miguel Andujar as the designated hitter over Ty France.
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Here’s how Yamamoto and Vásquez have performed thus far, and their ranks among 100 starting pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched.
Yamamoto is one of the best pitchers in the world and it’s evident in the fact that he’s still yet to really hit his stride and still has been elite at preventing hits, baserunners, and runs. His 1.67 walks per nine innings leads the National League, and two starts ago he took another no-hitter into the ninth inning. Yamamoto (79%) and his teammate Shohei Ohtani (85%) are the top two starters via Quality Start percentage, with Yamamoto 11/14 and Ohtani 11/13. Yamamoto will look to provide another quality start today, which would tie him with Sandy Alcantara and Cristopher Sánchez, who each have 12.
He’s coming off a relatively mediocre outing for his standards, in which he allowed three earned runs across six innings against the Baltimore Orioles, resulting in his fifth loss of the season. It was his first time allowing more than one earned run in an outing since May 12 against the Giants. He’s been excellent across six starts and 41.2 innings since that outing, averaging nearly seven innings per outing, with a 1.51 ERA, 2.55 FIP, a 0.72 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts to just seven walks. One of those starts came against the Padres in San Diego, where he threw seven innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts. They’ll look to get some revenge against him tonight, as he’s been a thorn in their side for quite some time now.
Hart has been very solid this season, with a 4.13 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 0.82 WHIP, and zero home runs allowed in 24.0 innings thus far. He has a 0.67 WHIP and a .154 batting average allowed against left-handed batters, compared to 1.17 and .214 against right-handed batters. The strategy with him opening for Vásquez is pretty clear.
Vásquez had a great start to his season that San Diego desperately needed, but he’s struggled significantly over the last month. Since his start against the Dodgers on May 20 where he allowed three earned runs in 4.1 innings, he has a 6.91 ERA, with a 6.73 FIP, a 1.94 WHIP, and with batters hitting .345 against him. That’s also with just 14 strikeouts to 12 walks in 27.1 innings. Just brutal stuff for Vásquez who had a 2.65 ERA and a 3.30 FIP over his first nine starts and 50.1 innings. The bats need to show up against him.
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In other news,
The offense is missing Teoscar Hernández who is hopefully 100% as he returns from injury, unlike last season. Will Smith‘s neck issue was initially not even expected to be an IL situation, and now he might be out until after the All-Star break.
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First pitch is at 5:40 PT on SNLA and MLB Network.
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