Dodgers re-signing Tarik Skubal to a pre-lockout deal could benefit both

The most straightforward thing the Dodgers could do this offseason is to re-sign Tarik Skubal. And not because they invested in him already by trading Zyhir Hope, River Ryan and Brady Smith to get him at the trade deadline last season, but because he would help to stabilize the starting rotation for the next half-decade or longer.

We all know the Dodgers have had a volatile starting rotation for the last few years, evidenced by Blake Snell logging 104 regular-season innings over the last two seasons — his first two years of a 5-year, $182 million deal. Not many teams could get that from an ace-level starting pitcher and be like, “That’s fine, as long as he’s healthy in October.” And that’s exactly what has happened in the last two playoff runs. Tyler Glasnow established a career-high in innings in 2024 in his first season with the Dodgers, but he was unavailable in October. Since, he has thrown 90 1/3 and 74 regular-season innings for the Dodgers — but he’s been healthy in October. We know of the limitations that Shohei Ohtani might face. Emmet Sheehan and his fluctuating velocity might make him better in a swingman role, ultimately. Justin Wrobleski broke down after a strong first half that included an All-Star appearance; he might be a better reliever than a starter down the road. We don’t know if Roki Sasaki will be able to put it all together consistently, but the hope remains.

Basically, the only surefire 150-plus-inning arm the Dodgers have is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That puts a lot of extra stress on the rest of the Dodger starters mentioned above, as well as the depth guys like Landon Knack, Gavin Stone and maybe Ben Casparius (and even some of the fungible/higher-leverage bullpen arms). Factor in that and the fact the Dodgers’ best starting pitching prospects (Zach Root, Christian Zazueta) are at least a year away, and fortifying the rotation with Skubal makes a ton of sense.

As far as money goes, not only will those starting pitchers named above be off the books sooner than we think, guys like Edwin Diaz, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Tanner Scott and potentially Kyle Tucker (opt-out decision after 2027; last year of 4-year deal is 2029) could be off the books, making it easier to fit another mega contract like Skubal’s in the books — if Mark Walter doesn’t have anymore “off-the-field” issues between now and then (which seems unlikely!).

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We know Skubal’s credentials — 2-time AL Cy Young Award winner, the best pitcher in baseball over the last three years and a bonafide horse. While it’s fun to be nostalgic about some guys or try to find a diamond in the rough, for a team like the Dodgers, the simplest answer is usually the best one.

The four big outlets to publish free-agent predictions have Skubal’s next contract as follows:

• The Athletic: 8 years, $360 million*
• ESPN: 8 years, $352 million
• FanGraphs: 10 years, $380 million
• MLB Trade Rumors: 9 years, $425 million

*Jim Bowden didn’t give a firm prediction. This is what he wrote: “Anywhere from $350-$500 million depending on length of contract. He will become the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history in terms of AAV and guaranteed dollars.” So, I opted for the 8/360 because the $360 million and $45 million average annual value satisfy both the caveats he mentioned.

If you take the average of all four, it comes out to 8.75 years and $379.25 million. To get Skubal to top Yamamoto’s $325 million total value and Max Scherzer‘s $43.3 million AAV, a 9-year, $396 million deal satisfies both.

Then again, if this is true, it’d be more palatable for the Dodgers and would satisfy both caveats.

.@Buster_ESPN says one agent predicted Tarik Skubal's deal will look more like Kyle Tucker's than Yamamoto's: "6 time 60."

That would be a shorter, higher-AAV deal than ESPN's 8-year, $352M projection and would, in Buster's words, "set a record for pitchers by far." #Dodgers… pic.twitter.com/lsdxsiNEgk

— Matthew Crory (@matthewcrory) November 3, 2026

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For all the money the Dodgers have invested into the starting rotation, it starts to get a bit thin come 2029. Glasnow’s contract will have expired, Snell will be in the last year of his deal with a conditional opt-out for ’29, Sheehan and Stone will be in their third year of arbitration, with free-agency looming in ’29, Sasaki and Wrobleski will be Arb 2 and Root and Zazueta will be in their mid-20s. That’s not to mention Yamamoto has the following opportunities to opt-out:

• (A)fter 2029 and 2031 World Series, if during 2024-29 he does not have Tommy John surgery or spend 134 consecutive service days on the injured list with a right elbow injury, or
• (A)fter 2031 and 2033 World Series, if during 2024-29 Yamamoto has Tommy John surgery or spends 134 consecutive service days on the injured list with a right elbow injury (such an injury would trigger a conditional option giving the Dodgers at $10M club option for 2036 (no buyout)

That’s not to say I think he’d go anywhere else, as he should be a Dodger-lifer barring catastrophic injury, but it’s also something to take into account.

Thus, locking up Skubal from 2027-34 or ’35 (which aren’t even real years) might make a lot of sense. He projects to age well since he doesn’t rely solely on velocity and has plus-command of four pitches. The Dodgers were interested in Gerrit Cole when he was a free-agent at age 29. They offered him a reported 8-year, $300 million deal before he accepted the Yankees’ 9-year, $324 million deal. Skubal will be 30 heading in a couple weeks. Here’s how they compare going into their respective free-agent years:

Player	IP/Yr	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%
Cole	170 2/3	3.22	3.06	27.6	6.5
Skubal	132 2/3	3.02	3.03	29.2	5.4

Remarkably similar pitchers just a year apart in age at the time of their free agency.

It must be noted that Skubal’s first season was the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, but he only made eight appearances. That had an impact on his lack of innings an injury-shortened 2023 season had a bigger impact.

Skubal was the better pitcher, rate-stat wise, but Cole was more durable. And since being (mostly) healthy for the last three years, Skubal’s durability (average of 182 IP per season since 2024) has improved.

Familiarity doesn’t hurt, either. The Dodgers are familiar with him, and he’s familiar with them. His bromance with Snell was a sight to behold and to think he wouldn’t take that into consideration when choosing his next team is slightly short-sighted. Of course, the Dodgers are going to have to be competitive with the financial aspect of things, which they’ve had no problem doing of late.

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ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel polled executives on Skubal, which is where he got his 8/352 prediction earlier in this article. He also wrote of those in the panel, 78% thought Skubal would sign before the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (8:59 p.m. on Dec. 1). That might actually benefit/favor the Dodgers, as the big-name free agents might want to lock in their price before a potential change in the future. Here are the notable players who signed before the 2021-22 lockout (8:59 p.m. on Dec. 2):

Nov. 16, 2021

• Eduardo Rodriguez, Tigers

Nov. 30, 2021

• Mark Canha and Starling Marte, Mets
• Robbie Ray, Mariners

Dec. 1, 2021

• Javier Baez, Tigers
• Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays
• Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, Rangers
• Scherzer, Mets
• Marcus Stroman, Cubs
• Chris Taylor, Dodgers

Guys who signed after the lockout include Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Freeman, Carlos Rodon, Kyle Schwarber and Trevor Story. So, it’s not a guarantee Skubal will sign before the lockout, but 78% is an overwhelming number and the fact the top free agent in the 2021-22 offseason (Seager) signed before the new CBA and it feels like it’s trending in that direction.

If the Dodgers re-sign Skubal, expect a lot of deferred money, which means they might also give him a more lucrative deal than some might expect to help offset the deferrals (as they did with Snell). An 8- or 9-year, $400 million deal wouldn’t be out of the question. If the Dodgers can get him for eight years, that’d be better for them. Still, if it’s the difference of one year, that shouldn’t be an obstacle. At the same time, if it’s 8/400 and 9/400, maybe Skubal opts for the former. If it’s 6/360, that almost feels too good to be true. And with owners’ continued insistence on a salary cap, this might be the last time the Dodgers are able to spend so freely or without more severe consequences, which incentives them to get something done as well.

The competition won’t be plentiful, but the teams that will be in on him will be willing to open up the pocketbook. The Mets are the other team most connected to Skubal, and, frankly, they need him more than the Dodgers. The Cubs need him even more, but might not be willing to meet the asking price. Ken Rosenthal brought up the Angels as an interesting contestant, with new ownership taking over soon. The White Sox could shock the baseball world by landing Skubal, but that seems very unlikely (even if it makes a ton of sense with that young core that’s lacking a true No. 2 starter, let alone an ace). The Yankees might normally be involved, but with a 1-4 of Cole, Max Fried, Rodon and Cam Schlittler, they can choose to invest elsewhere on a club with more holes than the Dodgers. There’s always the chance of a mystery team, but I’m not sure who that would be at this point. The Mariners? It’d open them up to trading a starter or two for offensive help. The Giants? Not sure why Skubal would want to go there. The Nationals? Would be aggressive, now that Stephen Strasburg is off the books, officially. The Braves could use him as much as the Cubs, but they won’t commit what it takes, financially.

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I know I didn’t have Skubal coming back in my offseason plan post, but that doesn’t mean I don’t want the Dodgers to just let the best starting pitcher in baseball to walk. It just felt like a bit of overkill with Elly De La Cruz being the primary focus of that post.

We’ll see what happens. Skubal will likely sign before the lockout. Hopefully it’s with the Dodgers.