2024 NLDS Preview: Dodgers vs. Padres

Well everyone, after 162 regular season games, the playoffs now begin for the Dodgers in the National League Division Series, up against the San Diego Padres. The Padres gave the Dodgers a real run for their money in the NL West this season, with the Dodgers unable to clinch the division until game 159 after a tough series against San Diego. They ultimately secured home field advantage throughout the postseason with the top record in baseball at 98-64, earning them a bye in the Wild Card round. The Padres had to play Atlanta in the Wild Card round, but that proved to just be slightly inconvenient as San Diego sent the Braves home quickly in a two game sweep. The Padres made the NLCS in 2022 after sending the Dodgers home in the NLDS, three games to one. They missed the playoffs last year in a disappointing 82-80 season, but they’ll be looking for a repeat of 2022, while the Dodgers will try to avoid just that. Losing to San Diego in the 2022 NLDS was absolutely disappointing, but it was followed by an even worse performance in the 2023 NLDS against Arizona. The Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers 3-0, outscoring them 19-6. Brutal. The Dodgers’ brass responded to that embarrassment by signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the offseason, so as to hopefully avoid the same fate this year. Dustin wrote about what the NLDS roster could look like, so take a look at that prior to reading this.

——

Lineup

Stats	Padres	Dodgers
AVG	.263 (1)	.258 (4)
OBP	.324 (6)	.335 (2)
SLG	.420 (7)	.446 (1)
OPS	.745 (6)	.781 (1)
wRC+	111 (6)	118 (1)
SB	120 (14)	136 (10)
HR	190 (11)	233 (3)
R & R/G	760 & 4.7 (8)	842 & 5.2 (2)
K%	17.6% (1)	21.4% (11)
BB%	7.5% (26)	9.6% (3)
Hard Hit %	30.6% (20)	32.9% (6)

These two offenses are among the best in baseball, differing slightly in approach, but scoring plenty of runs regardless. The Padres put the ball in play more than any other team in baseball, showcased by a low walk rate, in addition to the lowest strikeout rate in the game. That’s beneficial in a lot of situations, and is likely to play up in the postseason. They don’t slug like some of the other teams, but they still have plenty of power considering how good they are at making contact.

Since Max Muncy and Tommy Edman rejoined the team on August 19, the Dodgers have had the best offense in baseball. Mookie Betts returned from the Injured List on August 12, so his return is factored in as well. Their 134 wRC+ and .843 OPS since 8/19 led baseball by a considerable margin, with the Padres seventh in wRC+ at 109, and eighth in OPS at .740. A decent chunk of that offensive performance does come from Ohtani, who finished the season with a .628/.667/1.186 slash over his final ten games with 27 hits, six home runs, and ten stolen bases, good for a casual 1.853 OPS. Against right-handed starting pitchers (which will be the case outside of Game 4), the Dodgers get to run out their best offensive group. They’re of course led by the NL MVP with a 181 wRC+, but everyone else in the lineup is an above-average bat by wRC+, outside of Edman (98). Enrique Hernández starts over Gavin Lux against left-handed pitching, and he has a 129 wRC+ and .831 OPS against LHP since the All-Star Break (optometrist appointment). The Dodgers bench will most likely just consist of Austin Barnes, Chris Taylor, Kiké, and Andy Pages.

The Padres can do a similar thing with their starting nine, and while they’re not as stacked, nobody is an easy out by any means. The only below-average hitter in their starting lineup by wRC+ is Xander Bogaerts at 95, but even he has a track record of being a great hitter. Jackson Merrill would win Rookie of the Year in any season where Paul Skenes wasn’t pitching, and he’s been integral to this Padres’ lineup. He’s had more clutch hits than almost anyone, and has a 147 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Alex Vesia and Anthony Banda will be used against him. Manny Machado has a 122 wRC+ on the season, but had a putrid start and has a 141 wRC+ and .869 OPS going all the way back to the middle of May. Fernando Tatis Jr. missed two months with a stress reaction in his right leg, and has a 140 wRC+ and .868 OPS since returning from the Injured List in the beginning of September. Jurickson Profar is having a career year with a 139 wRC+ and .839 OPS, and he’s a tough at-bat with minimal platoon splits. Luis Arráez is having a bit of a down year with a 109 wRC+ and .739 OPS, but still won his third consecutive batting title. The bench group for San Diego will involve Donovan Solano, Tyler Wade, Nick Ahmed, David Peralta, Brandon Lockridge, and Elias Díaz.

Catching wise, Luis Campusano split time with Kyle Higashioka for most of the season, each logging just under 300 plate appearances, but Higashioka settled in as the better option for San Diego behind the plate. Campusano was optioned, and they picked up the veteran catcher Elias Díaz at the end of August after the Rockies released him. Will Smith‘s 21 runners caught stealing leads all of baseball, and his 31% caught-stealing rate is third among starting catchers. Higashioka is fine defensively, but his arm leaves a bit to be desired, throwing out just 19% of base stealers. His average arm strength on throws to second base (73.9 MPH) is 60th of 63 catchers, just ahead of Barnes (73.3).

——

Rotation

Stats	Padres	Dodgers
IP	867.1 (10)	797.2 (25)
ERA	3.91 (13)	4.23 (19)
FIP	3.89 (7)	4.28 (22)
WHIP	1.22 (9)	1.26 (20)
SIERA	3.98 (8)	4.10 (13)
K%	23.7% (5)	22.8% (11)
BB%	7.6% (17)	8.0% (21)
Hard Hit%	30.7% (9)	32.2% (21)

This chart doesn’t paint a very pretty picture for the Dodgers, but if you’ve followed the team, everything here makes sense. It’s been a very bad year health wise for the Dodgers’ starting pitchers, and that could even be an understatement. The above stats are bogged down by a lot of really really poor starts throughout the year. It includes a staggering 8.52 ERA and 6.97 FIP from Bobby Miller over 56.0 innings, a 6.82 ERA from Justin Wrobleski over 30.1 innings, a 5.38 ERA for Walker Buehler over 75.1 innings, and what felt like ages ago, a 4.43 ERA over 18 starts and 89.1 innings from James Paxton.

The beauty of the postseason is that everything prior is irrelevant and everyone starts from scratch, but it’s hard to ignore the question marks among the Dodgers’ rotation. Tyler Glasnow (3.49 ERA, 2.90 FIP) would likely be the game one starter, and Gavin Stone (3.54 ERA, 4.01 FIP) would definitely provide stability that is lacking with both Buehler and Landon Knack as the third and fourth starters. There’s nothing anyone can do about it now, other than hope that Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty perform well and put less pressure on Buehler and Knack.

The Padres have two of the best starters in the National League in Dylan Cease and Michael King, both having excellent years in their first season with the Padres. Cease (189.1 IP) and King (170.1) led San Diego in innings pitched, and are both healthy and ready to go. Must be nice. Yu Darvish has always pitched well against the Dodgers and will be their Game 2 starter, while King is coming off a fantastic start against the Braves and is set up for Tuesday’s Game 3.

Joe Musgrove suffered an elbow injury in the fourth inning of Wednesday’s game and will unfortunately have to undergo Tommy John surgery. He was their fourth starter and will most likely be replaced by the lefty Martín Pérez, who has a 3.46 ERA over 52.0 innings after being acquired at the deadline. It’s obviously yet to be determined if there will even be a need for a Game 4, but Pérez starting over Musgrove should theoretically help the Dodgers a bit.

As for the individual matchups for these NLDS games, they’ll be given a deeper dive in the Game Threads to come.

——

Bullpen

Stats	Padres	Dodgers
IP	572.0 (20)	648.0 (5)
ERA	3.78 (11)	3.53 (4)
FIP	3.60 (3)	4.05 (21)
WHIP	1.23 (9)	1.18 (5)
SIERA	3.44 (3)	3.79 (18)
K%	24.8% (8)	23.3% (19)
BB%	7.7% (2)	8.7% (14)
Hard Hit %	33.7%	30.7%
Saves	44	50
Save%	66%	65%

Bullpen performance can make or break a team in the postseason, especially so in a shorter series, and both teams have great relievers ready to go. The Padres’ bullpen should be even better than it appears here, as they made huge additions at the deadline to strengthen the relief staff.

They added Jason Adam from Tampa Bay who has been stellar, with a 1.01 ERA in 26.2 innings, and also added Tanner Scott (2.73 ERA), a high leverage lefty. Bryan Hoeing was acquired in the same deal with Scott as a secondary piece, but has been just as impressive, with a 1.52 ERA in 23.1 IP. Their closer Robert Suarez has looked a bit shaky in the second half of the year, with a 4.28 ERA in 27.1 innings, after a 1.67 ERA in 37.2 innings in the first half. That second half ERA would’ve been even higher if the Padres didn’t find a way to turn a ridiculous triple play to end the game against the Dodgers.

The Dodgers’ bullpen depth might not match that of San Diego, but the top end arms are comparable. Michael Kopech has a 1.13 ERA in 24.0 innings since being acquired from the White Sox at the deadline and has solidified himself as the “closer”. He’ll be deployed in other situations outside of save situations, but will be utilized to get some of the most crucial outs this series. Blake Treinen (1.93 ERA), and Alex Vesia (1.76 ERA) have been excellent this year and are high leverage arms, the latter likely to face Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, Profar, Arráez, etc. Ryan Brasier missed nearly four months with a calf injury, but has a 2.76 ERA and a 1.94 FIP in 16.1 innings since returning from the Injured List. Anthony Banda has been huge for the Dodgers this year, with a 3.08 ERA in 49.2 innings pitched. He was pitching almost every other game, and despite a brief scare with a left hand fracture, some rest might do him some good. Outside of Vesia the bullpen doesn’t have any left-handed pitchers, so Banda being good is crucial for this pen.

Evan Phillips had a strange season with an 11.74 ERA in July that saw him relinquish the closer role, but he’s generally been excellent since August. He’s allowed just seven earned runs runs in 22.1 innings since August, resulting in a 2.82 ERA, 2.18 FIP, with 28 strikeouts to six walks. His 3.62 ERA isn’t as pretty as it’s been the past two seasons, but I don’t think Dave Roberts will be scared to deploy him in high leverage. Speaking of high leverage, Joe Kelly shouldn’t be seeing any important innings this series, if at all. He has a 4.78 ERA on the season over 32.0 innings, including a 5.93 ERA and 7.48 FIP over his last 13.2 innings pitched. Relievers are finicky, but I think adding Ben Casparius and or Edgardo Hernriquez would both be better decisions. I’d be surprised if they brought Henriquez up for 3.1 innings without any intention for him to be on the postseason roster, and so long as he can throw some strikes, his stuff will play. That’s the same deal with Kelly, but I think we’ve all been down that road enough. For Casparius, he’s also made only three appearances, but was great in both of his most recent outings against the Rockies, with 12 strikeouts in 7.1 innings. He’d be a great option for a few innings if need be.

——

Head-To-Head

The Padres are one of the few teams the Dodgers struggled against this season, with a 5-8 record, despite only being outscored 62-56. They started in Seoul, splitting a two game series to begin their seasons, and then San Diego took two of three in Los Angeles just a couple weeks later. Brasier blew a save in one of those games, resulting in an extra-innings loss, and another loss was against Paxton, who they won’t be seeing this series. The Dodgers went to San Diego for the first time in the middle of May, and dropped two of three once again. Glasnow was great in the opening game of that series, but the Dodgers couldn’t touch King who went seven scoreless innings with eleven strikeouts. They ended up losing on a Luis Arráez walk-off single against Michael Grove. The other loss featured Buehler allowing three earned runs and two home runs in just 3.1 innings.

They didn’t play San Diego again until the end of July, where the starting lineup included Cavan Biggio, Jason Heyward, Nick Ahmed, and James Outman. Glasnow was good once again, but the Padres got to Treinen and Vesia, and walked-off, yet again. The other loss was a sad Clayton Kershaw loss where he failed to record a strikeout, allowing three earned runs over 3.2 innings. The Dodgers had a tough time against Cease and that was that.

That brings us to the most recent three game series, just over a week and a half ago. The Dodgers could clinch the division with a series win, but mainly needed to avoid being swept. They dropped the first game as Knack struggled to put hitters away and King proved to be an issue once again. The game ended with the infamous triple play which was incredibly irritating at the time. Flaherty and Cease had decent outings in the second game, but the Dodgers’ bullpen locked it down in a close one. Musgrove was great for the Padres in the series finale, but Buehler was better, allowing just one earned run over five innings. Maybe more importantly, the Dodgers scored two runs off Scott and Hoeing, something that has been difficult for anyone to do.

——

Schedule

Game 1, LA – Saturday, October 5 5:38 PM PT

Game 2, LA – Sunday, October 6 5:03 PM PT

Game 3, SD – Tuesday, October 8 6:08 PM PT

Game 4*, SD – Wednesday, October 9 6:08 PM PT

Game 5*, LA – Friday, October 11 5:08 PM PT

*If necessary.

======

Overview

The Dodgers were 52-29 at home this year, trailing only the Phillies (54-27) in that department. However, San Diego was great on the road at 48-33, the second best mark in baseball. The Padres also led baseball with an excellent 10-2 record in extra-innings, a position you don’t want to be in against them, especially with their bullpen. The Padres led baseball with a 43-20 record in the second half, followed closely by the Dodgers at 42-23. However, since Betts rejoined the team August 12, the Dodgers were 29-15, trailing only the Tigers at 30-13. Since Muncy and Edman rejoined the team on August 19, the Dodgers were tied with the Tigers for the best record in baseball at 25-12. Both teams were playing great in the second half, with the Dodgers coming out on top in their most important series of the year.

You can call the bullpen a wash, it’s hard to tell. Depth might go to the Padres, but you’d hope the bullpen doesn’t have to cover more than four innings a night anyways. The Dodgers have the higher offensive ceiling, but San Diego’s approach at the plate might raise their floor. The real question is if the starting pitching can perform. Yamamoto and Flaherty need to be good. The offense needs to be ready to support solid outings from the starters. San Diego would be happy to leave with a split, and with Buehler against King in Game 3, that’s not a matchup that I personally look forward to.

Regardless, the Dodgers need to do something they haven’t done at all since 2021, show up in October.